No, not war. WAR. As in, Wins Above Replacement level. Hippeaux at IIATMS has a lengthy column up today looking at the stat (it’s actually multiple stats complied via different methodologies by different folks) and pointing out a potential flaw. Specifically, that one of its components — the defensive metric, Ultimate Zone Rating or UZR — that Hippeaux argues distorts WAR.
I am quite obviously not a stats guy, so I can’t say that I have any real insight here. I’m mostly waiting to watch the arguments and counterarguments to the piece, which is how most folks who don’t have their own aptitude with this stuff should probably proceed. Over time you get some clarity as to whether the critique makes sense, if the counterarguments make sense, etc., and then eventually you get something approaching an advancement in real knowledge. Kind of like science, you know.
But this article is getting a lot of play this morning, pro and con, so it’s worth throwing out there.
One warning: I’ve already seen a couple of decidedly non-statty writers link to this thing and say something to the effect of “see, those holier-than-thou stats types don’t know WHAT they’re talking about.” To those people I offer a hearty “shove it.” A critique of a component of an analytical tool does not constitute a repudiation of the analytical tool any more than a faulty component in your engine constitutes a totaled car. If it makes you feel better to say “see, those statheads aren’t God,” so be it. But do know that the statheads have never been interested in being God. They just want to understand stuff, and this sort of intellectual give and take is how that occurs.
The Dodgers beat their arch rival last night and expanded their lead in the NL West over those Giants to two games. That’s good! They also set a record for the most players on the disabled list in a season. That’s bad!
Los Angeles placed Brett Anderson and Scott Kazmir on the disabled list yesterday. Anderson has a blister on the index finger of his pitching hand. Kazmir has neck inflammation. Kazmir is the 27th different Dodgers player to go on the DL this year, which ties the record held by the 2012 Boston Red Sox. No word on whether Anderson has set any records for any one individual’s trip to the DL, but he has to be getting up there.
Records on this particular mark only go back to 1987. I’m sure its possible some team lost more than that due to the 1919 influenza pandemic or to some iteration of a Yellow Fever epidemic or something, but this is easily the most since antibiotics were invented.
Bad news for the Orioles, as they placed their best starter, Chris Tillman, on the 15-day disabled list last night with an inflamed shoulder. Tillman received a cortisone shot but he’s getting the time off nonetheless. He’s expected to be activated on September 5.
The Orioles’ rotation has been thin all year, but Tillman has been great. He’s 15-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 153 innings of work. His last start, however, on August 20, was awful. He gave up six runs on six hits in two innings. Tillman says it was the result of rust due to a nine-day layoff, but it’s hard to imagine that whatever is bothering his shoulder didn’t have an impact on the outing. Ubaldo Jimenez will get the start in Tillman’s place Thursday. He has . . . been less than reliable on the year.
Baltimore wakes up this morning two games behind Toronto and Boston in the AL East but safely in the second Wild Card position for the time being.