Better for Boston: Erik Bedard or Rich Harden?

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It seems like these gambles don’t usually work out for the Red Sox.  John Smoltz was a huge bust.  Brad Penny was even worse.  Bartolo Colon.  Wade Miller.  And one can extend it to the bullpen with Eric Gagne.  When the Red Sox decide to gamble on the perceived injury-prone/high-upside pitcher, it’s typically proven to be a bust.

So now Boston is chasing Erik Bedard and Rich Harden, according to various reports.  Both certainly fit in with the pitchers above.  After missing 2010, Bedard has come back to post a 3.00 ERA and strike out 85 in 90 innings for the Mariners this season.  Of course, those 90 innings are the most he’s thrown since 2007 and he’s missed the last four weeks with a sprained left knee (though he is returning tonight).

Harden has made just five starts after missing the first three months with a strained lat muscle.  He’s been pretty good, probably better than his 4.30 ERA suggests.  He’s struck out 30 and walked just 10 in 29 1/3 innings, which is a big step forward from his 2010, when he finished with a 75/62 K/BB ratio in 92 innings for the Rangers.

Both Bedard and Harden have made 30 starts in a season exactly once (Bedard in 2006, Harden in 2004).  Harden has had the superior track record of health in recent years, but Bedard has the better stuff of the two when healthy.

There’s also the matter of price: the Mariners will likely want considerably more for Bedard than the A’s will for Harden.  They have probably have a better chance of re-signing Bedard for next year than the A’s do with Harden.

But both offer the tantalizing possibility of a rotation upgrade at a fraction of the cost of an Ubaldo Jimenez.  And the Red Sox can afford to gamble, given that they’re 2 1/2 games in front of the Yankees and 7 1/2 games up on the Angels in the wild card.  They don’t really need someone to help them get through the regular season; they want someone who might, if things break right, be a big-time threat in the postseason.

And I think that’s more Bedard’s department.  Harden is throwing better than he did at any point of last year, but his arsenal isn’t nearly what it was when he broke into the league and his history of command woes are scary.  Bedard, unlike Harden, has never been healthy and bad; he has a 3.34 ERA since 2006.  He won’t come cheap, but if he could be had for either Kyle Weiland or Felix Doubront, along with a lesser prospect, it’d be a gamble worth taking for Boston.

Nick Williams has been trying to sell Jake Arrieta on the Phillies

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CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury reports that Phillies outfielder Nick Williams has been working out daily with free agent starter Jake Arrieta in Austin. The right-hander, who won the 2015 National League Cy Young Award, still remains teamless with spring training less than a month away. Williams has been trying to sell Arrieta on joining the Phillies.

Williams said of Arrieta, “He loves it here [Austin]. He has told me he likes working with young guys. I’m like, ‘All right, come on up.’ But I’m not writing the check. I don’t know what he wants. I don’t really dig into that because I’m not really in his position.”

On GM Matt Klentak’s hunt for pitching help, new manager Gabe Kapler said, “The pursuit is very real. I have a lot of trust that we’ll either go in [to spring training] with a new toy or we will pass on the opportunity because we’re better off giving this collection of pitchers a really healthy look because we thought that we could go acquire that piece a little bit later on this season or in the offseason next year.”

Arrieta, who turns 32 years old in March, went 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA and a 163/55 K/BB ratio in 168 1/3 innings last season with the Cubs. The Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers have been linked to Arrieta this month.

Presently, the Phillies’ starting rotation figures to include Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vince Velasquez along with some combination of Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Zach Eflin, Mark Leiter, and Jake Thompson. Arrieta would certainly amount to a big upgrade in the starting rotation and could make the Phillies a more attractive landing spot for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, who become free agents after the 2018 campaign. The Phillies are expected to be in the mix for either or both players.