Lessons learned from trade deadlines past

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Jonah Keri is writing for Grantland — eventually he’ll write everywhere; people from Quebec just get into everything if you let them — and today has a good piece looking back at some major trade deadline deals of yore.

Rather than just slag on the people who got the Larry Andersen end of the stick, he talks about the lessons learned from the trades and, long-term effects aside, whether the trade made sense at the time.

In related news, I learned last week that there’s a baseball equivalent of Godwin’s Law, called Smoltz’s law. It’s purpose: to caution folks against comparing trade deadline deals to the wonderful John Smoltz-Doyle Alexander trade from 1987. Unfortunately I fear that, like Godwin’s law, it’s most notable achievement will be to scare people out of making perfectly useful comparisons for fear of overstating their case or making moral equivalences when they aren’t truly intended rather than to actually improve the discourse.

Hey: sometimes Nazi analogies make sense and provide a nice explanatory framework. Sometimes Doyle Alexander trade analogies makes sense too.  Let us not go through life with one hand tied behind our backs.

Report: Orioles interested in Lance Lynn

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The Orioles singlehandedly kept the rumor mill churning this weekend. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the club is interested in making a play for free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, adding him to a list of potential candidates that also includes free agent righty Alex Cobb. The two are expected to command similar contracts in free agency, but Morosi notes that the Orioles may prefer Cobb based on his familiarity with the AL East.

Lynn, 30, is two years removed from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Despite missing the 2016 season, he bounced back with a respectable 11-8 record in 33 starts and complemented his efforts with a 3.43 ERA, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.4 SO/9 over 186 1/3 innings for the 2017 Cardinals. He lost several days with a blister on his pitching hand in early September, but managed to avoid any major injuries and can reasonably be expected to shoulder another heavy workload in 2018.

Lynn may not be the Orioles’ first choice to beef up their starting rotation, but there’s no doubt that he’ll be in high demand as one of very few viable starters on the market this winter. The veteran righty rejected his one-year, $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Cardinals on Thursday and will likely be seeking a multi-year contract, one that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch estimates around five years and $100+ million. If the Orioles are willing to bite that bullet, they’ll still need to compensate the Cardinals with their third pick in next year’s draft.