Breaking down B.J. Upton

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B.J Upton as the final piece to add to a contending team is a rather odd notion.  Obviously, Carlos Beltran has run circles around Upton offensively this year, and lesser lights like Josh Willingham, Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera have also been superior hitters.  Just look at Upton’s batting averages the last few years:

2007: .300
2008: .273
2009: .241
2010: .237
2011: .229

How is a .230-.240 hitter a difference maker?

Upton, though, is such a tough player to judge.  He’s terribly inconsistent, but his batting average doesn’t come close to approximating his value.  Upton is an above average defensive center fielder and a quality basestealer with 20- or 25-homer power and a strong walk rate.

Even though his averages and power numbers have been all over the map, WAR actually rates him as being fairly consistent in his five years as the Rays’ primary center fielder.

2007: 4.7 WAR
2008: 4.0
2009: 1.3
2010: 4.3
2011: 2.2 — on pace for 3.6

There’s a couple of important things to remember here.  One is that Tropicana Field plays as a strong pitchers’ park.  The other is that offense has collapsed throughout the league.   Upton’s .706 OPS is barely below the AL average of .718, and it’s actually slightly above average after adjusting for The Trop.

Since 2007, Upton rates fifth among major league center fielders (>50 percent of games) in WAR.

1. Carlos Beltran: 22.0
2. Curtis Granderson: 20.5
3. Matt Kemp: 18.3
4. Josh Hamilton: 17.9
5. B.J. Upton: 16.7
6. Shane Victorino: 14.8
7. Grady Sizemore: 14.6
8. Marlon Byrd: 13.4
9. Torii Hunter: 13.4
10. Andrew McCutchen: 12.0 (since 2009)

Upton is still just 26.  He’s under control for next year and he shouldn’t cost more than $7 million, so he has considerable trade value.

And after saying all that, I still don’t think he’s the final piece for a contender.  I’m not dismissing him.  He almost singlehandedly took down the Red Sox in the 2008 ALCS, hitting .321 with four homers and 11 RBI as the Rays won the series in seven games.  He has seven homers and 18 RBI in 21 postseason games, so everyone knows what he can do when he’s hot.

But I’m not sure he’s really going to be any better than Domonic Brown for the Phillies.  I’d like him in Atlanta, but Coco Crisp would come cheaper and might help the team even more.

Upton is more like a lottery ticket.  A team needing to gamble should pick him up and hope he goes off.  For that reason, I think he makes more sense in Cleveland and Pittsburgh than anywhere else.

Padres, Mariners join list of teams to extend netting

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The Reds announced earlier that they plan to extend the protective netting at Great American Ball Park in time for Opening Day next season. You can add the Padres and Mariners to what will surely be a growing list.

A young fan was struck in the face by a foul ball at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday, which gave new life to the netting debate. Some fans and media types think Major League Baseball is not doing enough to protect fans. While Major League Baseball has issued guidelines for protective netting, it is ultimately up to the teams to decide just how much netting to use.

Zach Britton receives stem cell injection, likely done for the season

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Orioles closer Zach Britton is likely done for the remainder of the 2017 season after receiving a stem cell injection in his left knee, Peter Schmuck and Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun report. Britton has been battling knee problems for most of the season.

The Orioles are still technically in the AL Wild Card race, entering play Thursday 5.5 games behind the Twins for the second Wild Card slot. With only nine games remaining, however, the 73-80 Orioles are likely being realistic about their chances and not taking any unnecessary risks with Britton.

Britton, 29, put up a 2.89 ERA with 15 saves and a 29/18 K/BB ratio in 37 1/3 innings this season. He will be eligible for arbitration for the fourth and final time this offseason.