No official announcement has been made yet quite yet, but various reports confirm that Daisuke Matsuzaka will undergo Tommy John elbow surgery next week.
That means he’s finished for this season and will likely miss most or perhaps even all of 2012, which is the final year of his six-year contract with the Red Sox signed in December of 2006.
Between the posting fee to win his exclusive negotiations rights and the six-year contract Boston made a total investment of $103 million in Matsuzaka. What did they get for that money?
Your mileage may vary, of course, but to my eyes Matsuzaka has had one very good season (2008), two decent seasons (2007, 2010), and two injury wrecked and/or terrible seasons (2009, 2011). Add it all up and he logged 623 innings spread over 105 starts and one relief appearance, posting a 4.25 ERA and 568/301 K/BB ratio while opponents hit .242 with a .720 OPS off him.
Basically he was a solid mid-rotation starter with durability issues, starting 32, 29, 12, 25, and 7 games (plus whatever he contributes next season) with an ERA that was 5-10 percent better than the league average once you adjust for Fenway Park.
According to Fan Graphs’ player evaluation system that performance was worth about $44 million and Matsuzaka also had a 4.79 ERA in seven postseason starts, so let’s bump that up to around $50 million. There are probably also plenty of off-field factors involved in his overall value to the team, but strictly in terms of on-field performance for a six-year, $103 million investment the Red Sox received approximately $50 million worth of value in the form of one good season, two decent seasons, and two (and likely three) bad seasons.
Earlier this month, Yankees starter CC Sabathia jawed at the Red Sox after Eduardo Nunez laid down a bunt. Sabathia fielded it fine, but threw the ball away for an error. After the game, he called Nunez’s bunt “weak” and said the Red Sox should “swing the bat.” Sabathia, of course, is not that limber these days. Along with being 37 years old, the lefty has also battled knee and hamstring issues this season.
The Twins apparently didn’t hear what Sabathia had to say about bunting. After Brian Dozier singled off of Sabathia to lead off the top of the first inning on Tuesday, Joe Mauer laid down a bunt on the third base side and reached safely. Jorge Polanco then laid down a bunt of his own, also on the third base side, and was initially ruled out, but after replay review was ruled safe to load the bases with no outs.
Fortunately for Sabathia, he was able to limit the damage, getting Eduardo Escobar to ground into a run-scoring 6-4-3 double play and inducing an inning-ending ground out from Byron Buxton. It’ll be interesting, though, to see if the Twins continue to bunt against Sabathia throughout the night.
Cubs starter Jake Arrieta has been out over two weeks with a strained right hamstring, but he’s ready to return to action. The right-hander threw a bullpen on Tuesday and it went well, so he will start in Thursday’s series opener against the Brewers in Milwaukee, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat reports.
Arrieta, 31, returns with a 14-9 record, a 3.48 ERA, and a 157/53 K/BB ratio in 160 1/3 innings. If he stays on schedule, he’ll make three starts through the end of the regular season, including the regular season finale on October 1 against the Reds.
Arrieta is expected to max out at 75-80 pitches on Thursday and will ramp up through the end of the month.