First-third awards: 2011 AL Cy Young


On to the AL Cy Young Award race.  First, the league’s ERA leaders:

1. Josh Beckett (Red Sox): 4-2, 1.80 ERA, 63/25 K/BB in 70 IP
2. Jered Weaver (Angels): 6-4, 2.10 ERA, 77/20 K/BB in 85 2/3 IP
3. James Shields (Rays): 5-3, 2.15 ERA, 81/18 K/BB in 83 2/3 IP
4. Gio Gonzalez (Athletics): 5-2, 2.17 ERA, 63/28 K/BB in 62 1/3 IP
5. Dan Haren (Angels): 5-3, 2.29 ERA, 74/14 K/BB in 86 1/3 IP
6. Trevor Cahill (Athletics): 6-4, 2.31 ERA, 58/30 K/BB in 78 IP
7. Alexi Ogando (Rangers): 5-0, 2.33 ERA, 47/15 K/BB in 65 2/3 IP
8. Michael Pineda (Mariners): 6-2, 2.42 ERA, 66/19 K/BB in 63 1/3 IP
9. Josh Tomlin (Indians): 6-2, 2.74 ERA, 34/10 K/BB in 65 2/3 IP
10. Jeremy Hellickson (Rays): 6-3, 2.80 ERA, 46/27 K/BB in 64 1/3 IP

Notice the presence of two rookies and two sophomores who don’t miss rookie eligibility by much.

Next up is WAR, the Baseball-Reference version:

1. Josh Beckett (Red Sox): 3.2
2. Jered Weaver (Angels): 2.9
3. Trevor Cahill (Athletics): 2.7
4. Dan Haren (Angels): 2.5
5. Alexi Ogando (Rangers): 2.4
6. James Shields (Rays): 2.4
7. Zach Britton (Orioles): 2.3
8. Brett Anderson (Athletics): 2.2
9. Michael Pineda (Mariners): 2.2
10. Justin Verlander (Tigers): 2.2

There’s one more rookie.

And the Fangraphs version of WAR, which is based much more on FIP than ERA:

1. Jered Weaver (Angels): 2.7
2. Dan Haren (Angels): 2.7
3. CC Sabathia (Yankees): 2.2
4. Felix Hernandez (Mariners): 2.2
5. James Shields (Rays): 2.0
6. Brandon McCarthy (Athletics): 2.0
7. Josh Beckett (Red Sox): 2.0
8. Justin Verlander (Tigers): 1.8
9. David Price (Rays): 1.8
10. Michael Pineda (Mariners): 1.8

By trying to take luck out of the equation, Fangraphs generates a very different list. Cahill comes in at 1.0 in their WAR, ranking him behind four White Sox starters, including Edwin Jackson (4.63 ERA) at 1.6.

With Sabathia and King Felix in the top five, the Fangraphs list does look like something we might see at the end of the season. Still, I’m not a fan of basing pitching awards on FIP. I like it better as a predictive tool.

So, those are our candidates. I don’t see any relievers worth adding to the mix. Sergio Santos comes closest with his 1.40 ERA and eight saves in 25 2/3 innings.

Right now, I think the Cy comes down to Beckett and Weaver. Beckett has the nice ERA edge, while Weaver has pitched an extra 16 innings. Normally, I’d say the innings outweigh the modest quality gap. However, here’s one more set of numbers:

Opposing hitters OPS

Beckett: .756
Verlander: .735
Shields: .730
Weaver: .724
Gonzalez: .722
Pineda: .721
Cahill: .719
Haren: .716

Having made two starts against the Yankees and two against the Indians, Beckett has faced far-and-away the most difficult schedule of the top candidates to date. I think that rates him an edge in the competition.

As for the other spot, I’m favoring Shields. Verlander leads the AL in innings and has pitched better than his 3.12 ERA suggests, but Shields is just three innings behind him and has allowed 11 fewer runs.

AL Cy Young
1. Beckett
2. Weaver
3. Shields

The A’s are considering rising sea levels in planning their future ballpark

Oakland Athletics
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The Oakland Athletics ballpark saga has dragged on for years and years and years. They’ve considered San Jose, Fremont and at least three locations in Oakland as potential new ballpark sites. The whole process has lasted almost as long as the Braves and Rangers played in their old parks before building new ones.

In the past several months the Athletics’ “stay in Oakland” plan has gained momentum. At one point the club thought it had an agreement to build a new place near Peralta/Laney College in downtown Oakland. There have been hiccups with that, so two other sites — Howard Terminal, favored by city officials — and the current Oakland Coliseum site have remained in play. There are pros and cons to each of these sites, as we have discussed in the past.

One consideration not mentioned before was mentioned by team president David Kaval yesterday: sea level rise due to climate change. From the San Francisco Chronicle:

Kaval mentioned twice that the Howard Terminal site would have to take into account sea-level rise and transportation concerns — and he said there have been conversations with the city and county and the Joint Powers Authority about developing the Coliseum site.

The Howard Terminal/Jack London Square area of Oakland has been identified as susceptible to dramatically increased flooding as a result of projected sea level rise due to climate change. On the other side of the bay both the San Francisco Giants and Golden State Warriors have had to consider sea level rise in their stadium/arena development plans. Now it’s the Athletics’ turn.

Sports teams are not alone in this. Multiple governmental organizations, utilities and private businesses have already made contingency plans, or are at least discussing contingency plans, to deal with this reality. Indeed, beyond the Bay Area, private businesses, public companies, insurance companies and even the U.S. military are increasingly citing climate change and sea level rise in various reports and disclosures of future risks and challenges. Even the Trump Organization has cited it as a risk . . . for its golf courses.

Fifteen of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams play in coastal areas and another five of them play near the Great Lakes. While some of our politicians don’t seem terribly concerned about it all, people and organizations who will have skin the game 10, 20 and 50 years from now, like the Oakland Athletics, are taking it into account.