St Louis Cardinals v Los Angeles Dodgers

Let’s make all of the Dodgers free agents

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Now we know this isn’t going to happen. But I thought this would be fun. It’s May 31… the Dodgers miss payroll and MLB, not realizing it, is a few minutes late in stepping in to pay the players. Every Dodger player now has the right to elect free agency.

There’s two thoughts here: first, being the middle of the season, most teams don’t have nearly the financial flexibility that they would in the offseason. Budgets are set and many GMs would have to get creative in making contract proposals to the free agents. Odds are that the non-superstars wouldn’t do as well financially as they would as offseason free agents.

Second, while guys like Casey Blake and Jon Garland could take financial hits, leaving might be preferable to sticking around a Dodgers team suddenly reduced to rubble by key departures. So, I’ll work under the assumption that if it’s close, the player is going to move on.

Now the fun part… who goes where.

Clayton Kershaw – This one is obvious, right? No one is going to outbid the Yankees for Kershaw’s services. At 23 and already a dominant force, having posted a 3.19 ERA in 90 career starts, Kershaw is one of the most valuable properties around and it’s make perfect sense for the Yankees to go all in for him. Still four years away from actual free agency, Kershaw would stand to benefit more than anyone from this chain of events. The injury risk is significant, but I imagine he’d get at least $100 million for six years as a free agent. Prediction: Yankees – six years, $108 million

Matt Kemp – In the midst of a bounce-back season, the 26-year-old Kemp is hitting .352/.423/.566 with six homers and 10 steals in 32 games. Making a modest $6.95 million this year, he’d be extremely attractive if the Dodgers decided to turn him into trade bait. However, I’m not sure who would step up and offer him the $18 million-$20 million he’s worth if he became a free agent. The Yankees (with Kershaw), Phillies, Red Sox and White Sox are pretty much tapped out now. The Nationals would make a lot of sense, given their modest $64 million payroll, but they might be gunshy after just adding Jayson Werth. How about the Royals? They’re spending just $36 million this year, so they can take the money, and for all of their prospects, they’re missing a long-term center fielder. What better way to say they’re serious about contending in the AL Central than by signing Kemp? Prediction: Royals – four years, $76 million

Andre Ethier – A good friend of Dustin Pedroia’s, Ethier has been mentioned as a possible Red Sox target several times, and Boston will be looking for a right fielder for 2012 and beyond. Ethier, though, is poor defensively and might be better off as a long-term first baseman. How about the Nationals sign him and move him to first base once Bryce Harper is ready? If he’d rather join an immediate contender, perhaps he could sign a short-term deal with the Rays or Rangers that would allow him to become a free agent again after 2012. Prediction: Nationals – four years, $56 million

Chad Billingsley – Billingsley just inked a three-year, $33 million extension that would keep him in Los Angeles through 2014. However, he could almost surely do better on the open market with so many teams needing pitching. The Mets and Cubs may not have much flexibility for this year, but with all of the contracts they have coming off the books, they could afford to pay Billingsley $15 million per year starting in 2012. The Orioles should also consider a strong bid. Prediction: Orioles – five years, $75 million

OK, let’s go to the lightning round now. I’ll list players with their current salaries.

Rod Barajas ($3.25 million) – The Red Sox, Royals and Rockies might be tempted by his power and solid glove. He’d probably go.
Casey Blake ($5.25 million) – On the shelf with an elbow infection. Still, with so many teams needing third basemen, he’d likely depart, maybe for San Fran.
Jonathan Broxton ($7 million) – With iffy elbow, he’ll stay put and try to rebuild his value.
Rafael Furcal ($12 million) – A broken thumb means he’ll stay put and wait for free agency at season’s end.
Jon Garland ($5 million) – Vesting option for $8 million if he throws 190 innings. He might prefer to stay and get his money.
Matt Guerrier ($2.25 million) – The Dodgers made the biggest offer over the winter, signing him for $12 million over three years. He’ll stay.
Kenley Jansen ($0.4 million) – Struggled with command this year, but big-time arm. It’d be worth a Guerrier-type deal to control him for the next six years.
Hong-Chih Kuo ($2.275 million) – He’d be a big risk on a long-term deal, but if healthy, he’s a potential difference maker in October. The Red Sox or Yankees would give him a raise.
Hiroki Kuroda ($12 million) – Likes L.A. and passed up long-term deals as a free agent in the offseason. He’ll stay.
Ted Lilly ($7.5 million) – He’s due $25 million between 2012-13. Off to a poor start, he probably wouldn’t match that as a free agent. Stays.
James Loney ($4.875 million) – Would anyone want him? He’s not worth his salary with the way he’s played the last two years.
Vicente Padilla ($2 million) – Looking impressive in his stint as a short reliever. Some other NL team would want him as a setup man.
Jerry Sands ($0.4 million) – Everyone would be interested in a 23-year-old with his power. It’d probably take at least $16 million-$20 million for four years to sign him.
Juan Uribe ($5 million) – No one is going to match the three-year, $21 million the Dodgers gave him over the winter. Stays.

What’s on Tap: Previewing Monday’s action

DETROIT, MI - JULY 20: Justin Verlander #35 of the Detroit Tigers pitches in the eighth inning of the game against the Minnesota Twins on July 20, 2016 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
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Tigers starter Justin Verlander got off to a bumpy start, finishing his sixth start of the season with a 6.49 ERA. His velocity wasn’t quite where it used to be and the 33-year-old seemed to be on the decline. Some had already lost faith after a subpar 2014, so his slow start to 2016 wasn’t converting anyone.

Since throwing seven shutout innings against the Rangers on May 8, however, Verlander has been one of the best starters in baseball. Over his last 14 starts, Verlander has a 2.76 ERA with a 106/24 K/BB ratio in 97 2/3 innings. He’s tacked on nearly 2 MPH to his average fastball velocity compared to April, going from below 93 MPH to nearly 95 MPH. Verlander’s overall strikeout rate of 26 percent is close to four percent higher than his career average and is reminiscent of his rates during his prime five years ago.

Verlander will look to keep it going in Monday night’s start at Fenway Park. He’ll take on Drew Pomeranz, recently acquired from the Padres by the Red Sox, in a 7:10 PM EDT start.

The rest of Monday’s action…

Colorado Rockies (Jorge De La Rosa) @ Baltimore Orioles (Yovani Gallardo), 7:05 PM EDT

San Diego Padres (Colin Rea) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Aaron Sanchez), 7:07 PM EDT

Philadelphia Phillies (Jeremy Hellickson) @ Miami Marlins (Jarred Cosart), 7:10 PM EDT

St. Louis Cardinals (Carlos Martinez) @ New York Mets (Noah Syndergaard), 7:10 PM EDT

Arizona Diamondbacks (Braden Shipley) @ Milwaukee Brewers (Chase Anderson), 7:20 PM EDT

Oakland Athletics (Daniel Mengden) @ Texas Rangers (Martin Perez), 8:05 PM EDT

Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta) @ Chicago White Sox (Miguel Gonzalez), 8:10 PM EDT

New York Yankees (Michael Pineda) @ Houston Astros (Dallas Keuchel), 8:10 PM EDT

Los Angeles Angels (Hector Santiago) @ Kansas City Royals (Ian Kennedy), 8:15 PM EDT

Cincinnati Reds (Anthony DeSclafani) @ San Francisco Giants (Jake Peavy), 10:15 PM EDT

Report: Mets offered Travis d’Arnaud to Brewers for Jonathan Lucroy

ST. LOUIS, MO - JULY 3: Jonathan Lucroy #20 of the Milwaukee Brewers looks to the dugout during a game against the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourth inning at Busch Stadium on July 3, 2016 in St. Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
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In an effort to make an upgrade behind the plate, the Mets reportedly offered backstop Travis d'Arnaud to the Brewers in exchange for All-Star Jonathan Lucroy, according to a report from Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. The Brewers turned down a straight one-for-one deal. Bob Klapisch of The Record reports that a Lucroy trade involving the Mets is “not happening.”

Lucroy, 30, can become a free agent after the season if his controlling club pays him a $250,000 buyout instead of picking up his $5.25 million club option. While it’s believed that the Brewers will trade him before the August 1 non-waiver trade deadline, the club could pick up his 2017 option if no offer is enticing enough.

In 359 plate appearances this season, Lucroy has hit .301/.362/.491 with 13 home runs and 50 RBI. Going by the Sabermetric statistic weighted on-base average (wOBA), Wilson Ramos (.393) is the only catcher (min. 200 PA) with a better mark than Lucroy’s .361. Buster Posey is next at .350.

d’Arnaud, 27, has had a tough season. He missed nearly two months between April 26 and June 20 with a strained rotator cuff. Across 34 games this year, he has a paltry .246/.302/.339 triple-slash line with two home runs and 10 RBI in 129 plate appearances. d’Arnaud will become eligible for arbitration for the first of three years after this season.