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Next stop, stardom: 2011 breakout picks – Justin Upton

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Justin Upton has yet to become the MVP-caliber superstar expected from the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft and actually took a major step backward last season following a very strong 2009 performance, but I’m not sure most people fully realize just how rare it is for someone to be as productive as Upton’s been at such a young age.

He’s hit .272 with a .352 on-base percentage and .471 slugging percentage through 422 career games while averaging 21 homers and 72 RBIs per 600 plate appearances, which looks like good but not great production until you note that Upton made his MLB debut at age 19 and is still just 23 years old.

Here’s the complete list of all the players in the past 50 years to get at least 1,500 appearances through age 22 and post a higher OPS than Upton: Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Ken Griffey Jr., Tony Conigliaro, Boog Powell, Cesar Cedeno. That’s it. That’s the whole list. And filling out the rest of the top 10, directly behind Upton on the list, are Johnny Bench, Andruw Jones, and Rickey Henderson. Suddenly the fact that his OPS dipped slightly below .800 last season doesn’t seem so damning, does it?

Upton’s high strikeout rate sticks out as a potential red flag for his development, but he’s already flashed 30-homer power and 20-steal speed to go along with above-average plate discipline and a good glove in right field. In terms of raw ability and physical tools very few players are in Upton’s league and he’s on the verge of making a name for himself–and surpassing his brother, B.J. Upton of the Rays–as one of the elite outfielders in the game.

My other 2011 breakout picks: Carlos Santana, Colby Rasmus, Derek HollandBrandon Morrow.

The Rockies are promoting outfield prospect David Dahl

SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 10:  David Dahl of the U.S. Team looks on prior to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at PETCO Park on July 10, 2016 in San Diego, California.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Harry How/Getty Images
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In a wave of prospect advancement news on Sunday, the Rockies have joined the fray. The Astros are calling up Alex Bregman. The Diamondbacks are calling up Braden Shipley. And the Rockies will call up outfield prospect David Dahl on Monday, Nick Groke of The Denver Post reports. The Rockies are expected to designate outfielder Brandon Barnes for assignment to create roster space.

Dahl, 22, was selected by the Rockies in the first round — 10th overall — in the 2012 draft. He started the season at Double-A, batting .278/.367/.500 with 13 home runs, 45 RBI, 53 runs scored, and 16 stolen bases in 322 plate appearances. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque earlier this month. In 16 games there, Dahl has hit an outstanding .484/.529/.887 with five homers, 16 RBI, and 17 runs scored in 68 plate appearances.

Dahl is considered the Rockies’ second-best prospect and #40 overall in baseball according to MLB Pipeline. He got some camera time during the 2016 Futures Game two weeks ago, going 0-for-2.

David Robertson and adventures with the win statistic

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 26:  David Robertson #30 of the Chicago White Sox pitches in the 9th inning for a save against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S. Cellular Field on June 26, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The White Sox defeated the Blue Jays 5-2.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
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David Robertson got the win in both White Sox victories today, a double-header versus the Tigers. In the first game, he got the final out of the eighth inning and pitched a scoreless ninth before the White Sox walked off on an Adam Eaton RBI single.

It was the second game that made things interesting. Robertson took the mound at the start of the ninth inning staked to a 4-1 lead. He’d fork up a leadoff home run to Nick Castellanos. Then, after getting two outs, served up another solo shot to Tyler Collins followed by a game-tying Jarrod Saltalamacchia dinger. Robertson would get out of the inning without any further damage.

In the bottom of the ninth, Melky Cabrera sent the White Sox home winners again, drilling a walk-off RBI single. That gave Robertson the win, his second of the afternoon. As Baseball Tonight notes on Twitter, Robertson is the first player in the last 100 years to give up three home runs in an inning or fewer and still wind up with the victory.

Robertson has had a rough go of it since the All-Star break. He yielded four runs in his first appearance back on July 18. On the season, he’s saved 23 games in 27 appearances with a 4.46 ERA and a 50/21 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings.