Cincinnati Reds v Seattle Mariners

Springtime Storylines: Has the Mariners’ offense improved enough to be merely awful?

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Between now and Opening Day, HBT will take a look at each of the 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2011 season. Next up: The Deadball Preservation Society (a/k/a The Seattle Mariners).

The Big Question: Has the Mariners’ offense improved enough to be merely awful?

Oh, sure, this team had some overall bright spots in 2010. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award. Cliff Lee was pretty impressive 13 starts. Mt. Rainer didn’t erupt, sending lahars and pyroclastic flows down the Duwamish estuary, destroying downtown Seattle.  Always look on the bright side of life, right?

But there’s no polishing the turd that was the Mariners offense last year. I don’t need to quote the statistics to you (note: I will now quote statistics), but the Mariners finished last in runs scored in all of baseball by a full 74 runs, were last in home runs, average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. It was the worst offensive performance since the advent of the DH and, if you listen to some folks, it’s in the conversation for worst offense of all time once you adjust for era.

Are they any better?  The offseason additions don’t seem to be needle-movers, as they say. Jack Cust has been imported to DH. If he were on the Mariners last year he would have been the team’s best hitter, but if Jack Cust is your best hitter, you’re not going anywhere. Miquel Olivo was also added. He has some power and will bring more to the table than last year’s catchers did, but Safeco Field isn’t going to be particularly friendly to him.

There are several holdovers from a year ago who could reasonably be expected to improve or to have larger roles — Chone Figgins is the former, Justin Smoak the latter — but the Mariners have also decided to make Jack Wilson and Brendan Ryan their starting middle infielders. While the defense should be pretty incredible up the middle, those two stand a damn fine chance of being worse at the plate than the Figgins/Wilson (pick your Wilson) combination from 2010, and that’s saying something.

The natural ebb and flow of life, the universe and everything will probably cause this bunch to score more than 513 runs in 2011, but not so much more that it will make a big difference.  As things stand, this looks like it will be the worst offense in baseball once again, and therein lies the reason why the Mariners have virtually no hope of escaping the cellar in the AL West.

So what else is going on?

  • In my video preview of the AL West I suggested that a good strategy for the M’s would for someone to sabotage the retractable roof at Safeco Field, thereby dramatically increasing the number of rainouts and thus the frequency of Felix Hernandez starts.  That may not be workable. And it may not be as necessary as I made it seem. Jason Vargas and Doug Fister are solid. Not special, but solid. They’d make a lot of teams’ rotations, though maybe not as the second and third starters.  I’m not the world’s biggest Luke French fan, but he lowered his walk rate in the minors a bit last season (while his strikeout rate also went down) giving him a fairly nice line at Tacoma. Maybe that’s something. The real wild card is Erik Bedard. He’s looked good this spring and, if he can stay healthy, could complement King Felix in the rotation. But never has the phrase “if he can stay healthy” been more meaningful and perhaps fanciful than it is when coupled with Bedard’s name.
  • Justin Smoak is the young guy with promise in this lineup, but Dustin Ackley could join him soon.  Ackley is a second baseman and the Mariners want him to cook a bit more in the minors, but it’s inevitable that he’ll be up sometime this year. He killed the Arizona Fall League and his transition from outfielder to infielder seems to be all but complete. I would assume that Jack Wilson and/or Brendan Ryan will be showcased for a trade to a defense-deficient contender at some point this season, thereby opening up a slot for Ackley.
  • Eric Wedge is the new manager and Chris Chambliss is the new hitting coach. Tyler Kepner of the New York Times had one of my favorite lines of the spring so far when he said that the job of Mariners hitting coach “has been roughly as secure as the drummer for Spinal Tap.”  Manager isn’t much better. I’m not much of a Wedge fan, though it’s worth noting that he always seemed to do much better in Cleveland when expectations were low than when they were high, and assuming he hasn’t changed, he should be an OK steward for the Mariners. I like Chambliss. I’m going to miss him managing/coaching third for the Charlotte Knights when they visit Columbus this year. I’ve always kind of liked him, going back to his playing days.
  • Ichiro continues to hum along. There isn’t much in baseball that one can predict with any kind of certainty, but Ichiro getting 200 hits is a fairly safe bet.  For as dreary as the Mariners season looks to be as a whole, Seattle fans can buy a ticket almost every game and be treated to a performance by one of baseball’s truly unique talents and a future Hall of Famer. People in Pittsburgh and Houston can’t say that.

So how are they going to do?

Lousy, but you knew that already. They didn’t improve the offense all that much and beyond King Felix the pitching is kinda ho-hum and uncertain.  The best you can say about the team is that they didn’t panic after last season’s debacle by signing a bunch of middle age mediocrities to multi-year deals and that they did what they could to turn lemons into lemonade with the Cliff Lee trade.  There may not be many teams with bleaker immediate prospects, but there are several with bleaker futures.  The Mariners are a mortal lock for last place in the AL West, but there is enough interesting going on to make them worth watching.

Diamondbacks mulling over moving Yasmany Tomas to left field

Arizona Diamondbacks' Yasmany Tomas (24) blows a gum bubble during the third inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs, Friday, May 22, 2015, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)
AP Photo/Matt York
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After trading Ender Inciarte to the Braves as part of the Shelby Miller deal, Yasmany Tomas will go into 2016 as a regular in the Diamondbacks’ lineup. Signed to a six-year, $68.5 million contract in December of 2014, Tomas batted .273 with nine home runs and a .707 OPS over 426 plate appearances during his first season in the majors last year while struggling defensively between third base and right field. Third base is out as a possibility at this point, but the Diamondbacks are mulling over another defensive change for him.

According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale said Friday that the club has discussed moving Tomas to left field and David Peralta to right.

“We’re definitely talking about it,” Hale said. “(Outfield coach) Dave McKay and I, (General Manager Dave Stewart) and (Chief Baseball Officer) Tony (La Russa), we think it might be best to switch them around.”

When the third base experiment flopped, the Diamondbacks put Tomas in right because they felt he would be the most comfortable there. The metrics weren’t kind to him. He’ll now have a full spring training to work on things if the club decides to make a change. Peralta isn’t the defender that Inciarte was, but he’s better than Tomas, so it’s understandable why the Diamondbacks would change their alignment.

Tomas is likely to be a liability no matter where he plays, but the Diamondbacks won’t mind as much if his bat begins to meet expectations. For a team with designs on the postseason, he’s a big key for this lineup.

Cubs, Jake Arrieta avoid arbitration at $10.7 million

Jake Arrieta
AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
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The Associated Press is reporting that the Cubs and starter Jake Arrieta have avoided arbitration, agreeing to a $10.7 million salary for the 2016 season. That marks the highest salary on a one-year deal for a pitcher with four years of service, the AP notes. Arrieta and the Cubs were set to go before an independent arbitrator but now can simply focus on the season ahead.

Arrieta, 29, is in his second of three years of arbitration eligibility. He had filed for $13 million while the Cubs countered at $7.5 million. The $5.5 million gap was the largest among players who did not come to terms with their respective teams by the January deadline. The $10.7 million salary is $450,000 above the midpoint between the two submitted figures.

Arrieta won the National League Cy Young Award for his performance this past season, narrowly edging out Zack Greinke, then with the Dodgers. Arrieta led the majors with 22 wins, four complete games, and three shutouts. With that, he compiled a 1.77 ERA and a 236/48 K/BB ratio across 229 innings.

Once a top prospect in the Orioles’ minor league system, Arrieta struggled in the majors but found immediate success with the Cubs in 2013 after the O’s traded him along with Pedro Strop in exchange for Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman.

Giants sign Conor Gillaspie to a minor league deal

Los Angeles Angels third baseman Conor Gillaspie is unable to hold on to the ball after catching a grounder hit by Kansas City Royals' Lorenzo Cain in the fourth inning of a baseball game at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., Friday, Aug. 14, 2015. (AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
AP Photo/Colin E. Braley
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Per Baseball America’s Matt Eddy, the Giants have signed infielder Conor Gillaspie to a minor league deal. Gillaspie was selected by the Giants in the supplemental round of the 2008 draft, then was traded to the White Sox in February 2013.

Gillaspie, 28, hit a meager .228/.269/.359 with four home runs and 24 RBI in 253 plate appearances between the White Sox and Angels during the 2015 season. Almost all of his playing time has come at third base but he can also play first base if needed.

The Giants, thin on depth, will allow Gillaspie to audition in spring training for a spot on the 25-man roster.

Joe Nathan plans to pitch in 2016

Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Joe Nathan throws against the Chicago White Sox in the ninth inning of a baseball game in Detroit Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2014. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
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Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports that free agent reliever Joe Nathan, recovering from Tommy John surgery, plans to pitch in 2016 according to his agent Dave Pepe. According to Pepe, Nathan’s workouts are “going well” and the right-hander is “definitely planning on playing this year.”

Nathan, 41, got the final out on Opening Day (April 6) against the Twins before going on the disabled list with a flexor strain in his right elbow, causing him to miss the next 161 games. He will likely be able to contribute out of the bullpen in late May or early June if he has no setbacks. On a minor league deal or incentive-laden major league deal, Nathan could make for a low-risk gamble.

Over a 15-season career that dates back to 1999 (he did not pitch in the majors in 2001 or 2010), Nathan has 377 saves with a 2.89 ERA and a 967/340 K/BB ratio over 917 innings.