Cincinnati Reds v Colorado Rockies

Springtime Storylines: Can the Reds do it again?


Between now and Opening Day, HBT will take a look at each of the 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2011 season. Next up: Your Cincinnati Redlegs.

The Big Question: Can the Reds pull off back-to-back division titles?

Holding the top spot in the division for a total of 115 days last year, the Reds basically ran away with the National League Central crown — their first since 1995. The perennially relevant Cardinals hung around until early September and finished only five games back in the final standings, but Cincinnati did not let up down the stretch and turned in the organization’s first 90-plus win season since 1999, when a young Mike Cameron led an explosive offense to a second-place finish under manager Jack McKeon.

Cameron was traded to the Mariners after that stellar ’99 campaign for Ken Griffey Jr., who brought his hometown team an 85-77 record in 2000 before things turned really ugly in the Queen City. With Junior beginning a long battle against the injury bug, the 2001 Redlegs finished near the bottom of the Central with a putrid 66-96 record and did not top 80 wins for the next eight seasons.

Which brings us back to present day. How will sudden success greet this edition of the Cincinnati Reds and will the good times last longer than they did at the turn of the century?

The offense is there. It’s youthful and powerful, and the Reds are going to field a lineup this season that will rival any batting order in the National League Central division. First baseman Joey Votto beat out Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols for MVP honors in 2010 with a .324/.424/.600 batting line, 37 home runs and 116 RBI. He even stole 16 bases. Right fielder Jay Bruce was also explosive, registering a cool .846 OPS and 25 home runs. From top to bottom — with the only exceptions being shortstop and (maybe) catcher — the Reds are primed to put runs on the board with ease again this season.

But every great team needs pitching, and the rotation in Cincinnati is far from intimidating. Edinson Volquez is still regaining his arm strength from August 2009 Tommy John surgery, Johnny Cueto battles inconsistency on a near-nightly basis, Homer Bailey hasn’t proven capable of remaining effective for an entire big league season and Bronson Arroyo is sliding quickly into his mid-30s.

Every National League Central team has gaping holes, but Cincinnati’s can be found in the starting rotation and that’s a frightening situation for a club that calls Great American Ballpark home.

So what else is going on?

  • Where are the fans? Great American Ballpark drew just over two million people last year and the daily average attendance was only 25,438. The 101-loss Mariners drew better, as did the Astros, Tigers, Brewers, Mets and Padres. For a town that once hosted Opening Day annually and produced raucous crowds during the Big Red Machine era, last year’s showing was a disappointment. The stadium is new and the team is good. It’s time for the Skyline-devouring residents of southwestern Ohio to do their part.
  • The maturation of dynamic outfielder Drew Stubbs has begun. The eighth overall pick in the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft, he slugged 22 home runs and stole 30 bases in 150 games last season for the Reds. If Stubbs can limit his strikeouts and show a little more patience at the plate, he could develop into a reliable long-term leadoff hitter. His on-base percentage in four minor league seasons was a healthy .364.
  • Rookie starters Travis Wood and Mike Leake deserve real credit for helping the Reds to their division crown last season, but what can we expect in 2011 out of the rising sophomores? They are both going to draw starts for the first couple weeks of April until Cueto recovers from shoulder inflammation. With Wood, it’s about continuing the momentum that he built up over the final few months of 2010. With Leake, it’s about proving that his hot start before the All-Star break was not a fluke.
  • The Reds handed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman a six-year, $30.25 million major league contract last winter in the hope that he might quickly became an ace of their starting rotation. He was fine last season in a setup role and will probably post dominant numbers again in 2011 as an eighth inning reliever behind closer Francisco Cordero, but it’s nothing short of a letdown that he is not yet making starts. Having a quality setup man is nice, but the Reds need rotation help and they’re clearly not confident yet that Chapman can provide it. A good starter is always more valuable than a good reliever.

So how are they gonna do?

Winning the National League Central isn’t going to be nearly as easy it was last season. The Brewers’ rotation is suddenly formidable, the Cubs made two smart offseason additions in Carlos Pena and Matt Garza, and the Cardinals have no plans of folding. But the Reds have a lineup that carries major upside and they’re going to be in the hunt all summer. If everything goes right, they can get to 90 wins for a second straight year. And that should net them either a consecutive division title or the National League wild card.

The Cubs clinch World Series berth with NLCS Game 6 win

CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 22:  The Chicago Cubs celebrate defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-0 in game six of the National League Championship Series to advance to the World Series against the Cleveland Indians at Wrigley Field on October 22, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
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After 71 years, the Cubs are headed back to the Fall Classic.

The dominance with which Clayton Kershaw attacked the Cubs in Game 2 of the NLCS was nonexistent in Game 6 as the Dodgers’ ace loaded the bases to start the first inning and scattered five extra bases and five runs over five frames. By the time Dave Roberts pulled his starter in the sixth inning, Kershaw was sitting on a Game Score of 33, the lowest he’s mustered since the start of the 2015 season. Only one of his strikes came via curveball, and whether he was having difficulty locating his off-speed stuff or felt more confident with the fastball-slider combo, it was the fewest curves he’d seen land for strikes all year (per David Adler).

Where the Dodgers were able to give Kershaw the edge in Game 2, they found themselves powerless against opposing hurler Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks turned out 7 1/3 scoreless frames with two hits and six strikeouts, preserving the Cubs’ second shutout of the postseason and the first since they bested the Giants in Game 1 of the NLDS. After his 1-0 loss to the Dodgers early in the NLCS, seeing the MLB ERA leader turn out a gem was a relief for the Cubs, especially one as spectacular as an 88-pitch two-hitter.

With Hendricks effectively stymieing the Dodgers’ best attempts to get on base, the Cubs played to their strengths at the plate. Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist cleared the bases in the first inning for a two-run lead, followed by a Dexter Fowler RBI single in the second. Willson Contreras came through in the fourth inning for the Cubs, lifting an 87 m.p.h. slider to left field for his first home run of October, while Anthony Rizzo hit his second homer of the postseason on a 1-1 fastball in the fifth.

Neither bullpen allowed a single run from the sixth inning onward. Dodgers’ right-hander Kenley Jansen took the ball from Kershaw in the sixth, scattering four strikeouts over three innings and denying the Cubs so much as a single baserunner through the end of the game. Aroldis Chapman, meanwhile, issued just one walk in 1 1/3 scoreless frames, inducing a Yasiel Puig double play to clinch the Cubs’ 17th franchise pennant.

With the win, the Cubs will face off against the Indians in Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday at 8 PM EDT. And, in case you needed a reminder:

Video: Willson Contreras blasts first postseason home run off of Kershaw

CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 22:  Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game six of the National League Championship Series at Wrigley Field on October 22, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Getty Images

So much for Clayton Kershaw posing a threat tonight. The Cubs got their knocks in early and often against the Dodgers’ ace during Game 6 of the NLCS, racking up three runs in the first three innings before rookie catcher Willson Contreras unleashed his first postseason home run in the bottom of the fourth inning.

According to’s Phil Rogers, Contreras became the 10th Cub to homer in the 2016 playoffs, following big hits by Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero, David Ross, Jake Arrieta, Kris Bryant, Travis Wood, and Javier Baez. Of the ten home run hitters, Contreras joins catchers David Ross and Miguel Montero as yet another backstop capable of driving the long ball (and, less importantly, as another player capable of a sweet, sweet bat flip).

Rizzo, whose last homer was a deep drive to right field off of Los Angeles right-hander Pedro Baez in Game 4 of the NLCS, piled on Kershaw’s five-run outing with another home run in the bottom of the fifth inning. Kershaw called it a night after five frames, and the Cubs currently lead the Dodgers 5-0 in the sixth inning.