Baseball’s official historian slams statistical analysis

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What’s more unexpected: me linking a Bleacher Report column or baseball’s official historian — and sometime sabermetrician — John Thorn talking about how apocryphal tales are preferable to the actual nuts and bolts of what happened on the baseball diamond?

For a whole generation of fans and fantasy players, stats have begun to outstrip story and that seems to me a sad thing. Even the unverifiable hogwash that passed for fact or informed opinion in baseball circles not so long ago seems today wistfully enticing, for its energy if nothing else … Frankly, in today’s baseball writing I miss such [broadcaster Bill Stern’s] balderdash: the wink and the nudge of a Barnum or the tall-tale bluster of a Davy Crockett. Amid today’s mix of straight-on account and sabermetric analysis, I miss the fun …

… A decade ago, when counterintuitive strategy briefly was fashionable, someone thoughtfully provided a list of the all-time leaders in receiving intentional bases on balls with no one on base. This put me in mind of Thoreau’s remark in Walden: “It is not worth the while to go round the world to count the cats in Zanzibar.” Fixate on the particular and you miss the big story.

Except, the big story is often baloney without the particulars.

The reason why someone might measure intentional walks with no one on base is to figure out how fearsome the hitter was at the time in the eyes of his contemporaries.  To take that analysis away and rely on “ripping yarns,” you get people simply asserting that a certain player — like, say, Jim Rice — was feared when, in fact, he really wasn’t as scary as everyone says. Oh, and then that allegedly fearsome guy gets elected to the Hall of Fame based, primarily, on the strength of a ripping yarn as opposed to merit or even fact.

There is such a thing as bad or pointless statistical analysis, sure, but one of the biggest reasons sabermetrics exists is because there was so much bad narrative history being done that it left a significant segment of the fan base (i.e. the future statheads) dissatisfied with the way baseball was handling its history. It’s entirely possible to lose sight of the big picture when you dig into the numbers, but it’s just as easy — I’d say easier — to lose sight of what actually occurred when you rely on anecdote and memory.

The point of any worthwhile sabermetric analysis is to answer a human question, not to traffic in numbers for numbers’ sake.  Human questions that help illuminate baseball’s history in ways that, one would hope anyway, would inform someone who was just named baseball’s official historian.  That he seems to be missing this is somewhat unsettling.

Report: Alex Cora to be named Red Sox manager after the ALCS

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Astros bench coach Alex Cora has been described as a leading candidate for multiple managerial openings since the end of the regular season. He has been tied most closely to the Red Sox job, however, having already interviewed with Boston and with several people reporting that he is the Sox’ top choice.

Now come two reports that the job will be given to Cora, possibly as early as this weekend.

The first report comes from NBC Boston’s Evan Drellich, who hears from his sources that “no doubt” it’s Cora, and that the Red Sox are just waiting for the ALCS to end in order to offer it to him. If the Astros are eliminated, it’d certainly happen as soon as Sunday or Monday. If the Astros advance it may be tricker, timing wise, to make a formal introduction since he’d be busy preparing for the World Series, but they could theoretically name him and introduce him later.

A second report came from the Twitter feed for LasMayores.com, MLB’s official Spanish language website. It said today (roughly translated) that “according to several sources [Cora] will be formally presented as manager of the Red Sox after the ALCS ends.” The twist on that: the tweet was deleted a few minutes ago, even though it remained up for several hours. I’d guess that’s likely more due to MLB not wanting any of its official organs to jump the gun than it is based on it being misinformation.

Either way, all signs are pointing to Cora, who played for the Red Sox from 2006-2008, being the next manager in Boston.