Mat Latos

Springtime Storylines: Is there life after Adrian Gonzalez for the San Diego Padres?


Between now and Opening Day, HBT will take a look at each of the 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2011 season.  The latest: 2010’s biggest surprise, the San Diego Padres.

The Big Question: Is there life after Adrian Gonzalez?: My brother lives in San Diego and, over the past 15 years there, he has come to generally like the Padres. He’s an extremely casual fan of the game these days, however, so when he was in town visiting me last week it was no surprise that the biggest question he had for me was whether the Padres will continue to exist without Adrian Gonzalez. I think he asked me the same thing about Ken Caminiti in 1999 too.  Extremely casual fans in San Diego tend to really identify with a big slugging  superstar, probably because such beasts are rare in the 619.

Not that it’s a bad question. My brother will understandably look at a league leaders page in the Union-Tribune once or twice this spring and see that Brad Hawpe isn’t setting the world afire, and he will ask whether the Padres did the right thing in trading away their best player since Tony Gwynn walked the Earth.  The casual fans like him won’t be given much comfort by the addition of competent role players like Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson. They’re certainly not going to buy into the notion that the haul the Padres got for Gonzalez — Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes — was worth it, because they won’t appear before their eyes in 2011.  The astute Padres fan knows that some things in life are necessary when your club doesn’t have an unlimited payroll, and one of those things is parting ways with a superstar a year away from free agency.

Yes, there’s life in San Diego after Adrian Gonzalez. I believe that Jed Hoyer made the best trade he could under the circumstances and that his approach to rebuilding the Padres is the right one.  I believe, however, that 2010’s unexpectedly good year — which won’t be repeated — and the loss of their best player will kind of crush the mood of Padres fans who have to be cajoled into showing up to that beautiful ballpark even when the team is winning.  The mood, in other words, won’t line up with the team’s competitive trajectory, with the former taking a sharp dive and the latter leveling out compared to last year, but still trending upward.

So what else is going on?

  • For all of the fretting about Gonzalez, the Padres did not contend on the power of their offense last season. Indeed, they were near the bottom of the NL in runs scored. Their 90 wins came by virtue of allowing the fewest runs in the league. Their pitching staff is back mostly intact this year and how it goes is how the Padres will go.  I’m a Mat Latos fan, but I fear that the other guys — Richard, Stauffer, LeBlanc — are Petco creations. Sure, they’re still pitching in Petco, but I could see them backsliding.
  • That said, the Padres have a nice little starting pitcher juvenation machine going. Jon Garland came in last year to the friendly (for pitchers) confines of Petco Park, regained some confidence and took his show up to L.A. This year Aaron Harang is in town to, presumably, do the same thing.  If Harang is effective for the Padres it wouldn’t be at all shocking to see this pattern repeated over and over again, with the Padres benefiting from down-on-their-luck pitchers treating them like a Hollywood starlet treats the Betty Ford Clinic, and doing so on the cheap.
  • Heath Bell may be the biggest name on the team and, like Gonzalez was, he’s poised for free agency after this year. Do the Padres keep him?  On the one hand, Bell is an excellent closer who wants to stay in San Diego and said he’d take a hometown discount to do it.  On the other hand, an excellent closer on a multi-year deal is one luxury a rebuilding team with the Padres’ payroll constraints does not need. Frankly I’d be shocked if Bell was wearing Padres colors in 2012. If the Padres stink this year, they trade him. If they compete, they let him walk.
  • Is there anyone here to lead these guys? In addition to Gonzalez, the Padres lost David Eckstein, Chris Young, Yorvit Torrealba and Matt Stairs. Your mileage on the value of “veteran presence” may vary, but is there anyone on this club who can tell someone else to cut it out when they’re being a jackwagon? Is there anyone who — on a really bad night — can stand in front of reporters and let the other players skulk out of the clubhouse?  Put differently: can Ryan Ludwick truly lead this team?  [dramatic music swells].

So how are they gonna do?

I picked the Padres last in 2010 and they fought for the division until the last day of the season, so what the hell do I know?  Still, I don’t see them pulling that trick a second time. It’s a team that had trouble scoring runs with Adrian Gonzalez in the lineup, so they may be downright horrific without him.  The staff is still good, but I have a hunch that they’ll experience some growing pains and, in some cases, will be exposed.  I also think they’ll be playing to a lot of empty houses this year, and that kind of saps a guy after a while.

Fourth place is really the best I can see for the Padres this year.  And if they surprise? Well, I have a whole other year to explain why I was wrong. Again.

Astros err in letting Scott Kazmir start sixth

Scott Kazmir
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Scott Kazmir went winless with a 6.52 ERA in six September starts. He allowed 41 hits, eight of them homers, in 29 innings, posting an 18/11 K/BB ratio. When the Astros got five innings of two-run ball from him Friday against the Royals, they should have thanked their good fortune and moved right along to the pen.

And they knew this. They must have. Josh Fields got up in the pen after Kazmir issued a one-out walk in the fifth. The left-hander got out of the frame, making himself eligible for the victory in what was then a 4-2 game, but it was still very surprising to see him come back out for the sixth, particularly with the switch-hitting Ben Zobrist (.926 OPS against lefties) and right-handed Lorenzo Cain due up.

Kazmir retired Zobrist, but he gave up a double to Cain. He was then pulled, even with the left-handed Eric Hosmer coming up. Manager A.J. Hinch had committed my biggest baseball pet peeve: he sent his starter back to the mound with the idea of pulling him after his first mistake.

It worked out terribly. Oliver Perez gave up a pair of soft hits to Hosmer and Kendrys Morales before walking Mike Moustakas. Fields then entered and walked the unwalkable Salvador Perez to tie the game at 4. The Astros gave up another run in the seventh and lost the game 5-4.

Maybe that’s the way it would have worked out anyway. Kazmir did give up just the one baserunner. It might not have even harmed the Astros if Perez had better luck.

Still, the thinking that went into the decision was disturbing. It’s always better to bring that reliever in with no one on base when you can. That’s especially the case with this Astros pen, which lacks a double-play specialist, much less a Wade Davis. But anyone in that pen would have been a better choice than sending Kazmir out to face Zobrist and Cain for a third time. Hinch needs to be more aggressive going forward.

Cardinals’ giveaway incorrectly claims ownership of 2001 division title

cardinals logo

The Cardinals have won so many division titles, it’s tough to keep track of them all. At least, it would be tough if it weren’t for Baseball Reference.

40,000 rally towels were given away to fans at Busch Stadium ahead of Friday’s NLDS Game 1 against the Cubs. The towel listed all of the years the Cardinals won the NL Central… and 2001. That year, they tied with the Astros for the best record in the National League at 93-69. However, because the Astros won the season series 9-7, they were awarded first place and the Cardinals took the Wild Card.


Video: Josh Donaldson and Keone Kela exchange words, benches clear

Josh Donaldson
The Associated Press

The Blue Jays’ and Rangers’ benches emptied in the bottom of the 13th inning after Josh Donaldson barked at reliever Keone Kela. Donaldson had smoked a Kela offering home run distance but foul, then sent a salvo of not-fit-for-TV words in the right-hander’s direction. Kela barked back and both benches emptied. There was no violence and no ejections.

Donaldson apparently believed Kela was trying to quick-pitch him, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That the pitch was quickly thrown didn’t seem to bother him any, considering the type of swing he put on the ball.

Here’s video of the incident at

Quick pitching has been one of a handful of unwritten rules getting more attention, it seems, this year. In August, Phillies bench coach Larry Bowa took issue with Mets reliever Hansel Robles quick pitching.