A thinking man’s approach to Andy Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy

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We have five years until we need to seriously think about Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer. My view right now is that he’s not. That could change, or it could not. Depends on what I’m able to figure out and what others are able to figure out and express persuasively for his cause.

There have been a lot of “he has a lot of wins!” arguments floated in the past 24 hours and I don’t think those will ever persuade me.  Joe Sheehan, however, has the first serious attempt I’ve seen that I think has the potential to make headway. It’s less about “here are Pettitte’s numbers,” and more about re-defining what it means to be a Hall of Fame pitcher:

Pettitte’s raw statistics fall short of the standard for the Hall of Fame, but not by enough to keep him out of the discussion. Pettitte, by dint of the timing of his career, is going to be the focal point for two arguments about the electorate’s standards: that the line for starting pitchers has gotten too high, and that postseason work should be given greater weight then it ever has.

Again: if I had a vote today, I think it would be no, and part of that is because I’m not convinced, as Joe is, that Pettitte’s postseason work “pushed him over the top.” But Joe has identified a fertile line of inquiry here about era and context. And it would do us well to use the next five years to think hard about it.

Maybe that will change my mind and the mind of the majority of people who, I sense anyway, don’t think Pettitte is a Hall of Famer. Maybe it won’t.  But it certainly does us better than spinning our wheels like we seem to have done so much with starting pitchers in recent years.

Masahiro Tanaka throws a Maddux

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You do know what a Maddux is, right? In case you forgot, it’s a complete game shutout in which the starter throws fewer than 100 pitches. Friend of HBT Jason Lukehart invented that little metric and, because Greg Maddux is my favorite player ever, it’s pretty much my favorite stat ever.

In the Yankees-Red Sox game tonight it was Masahiro Tanaka doing the honors, tossing 97-pitch three-hitter in which he only allowed one runner to reach second base to beat Boston 3-0. He only struck out three but he didn’t walk anyone. He retired the last 14 batters he faced.

Chris Sale was no slouch himself, striking out ten in eight innings. He’s pitched great this year but he’s not getting any help. The Sox have only scored four runs in his five starts. Boston has scored only 13 runs in their last seven games. They’ve been shut out three times in the past seven. They scored more runs than anyone last year, by the way.

The game only took two hours and twenty-one minutes. Or, like, half the time of a Yankees-Red Sox game in the early 2000s. Progress, people. We’re making progress.

Shelby Miller has a tear in his UCL, considering Tommy John surgery

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Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Diamondbacks pitcher Shelby Miller has a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament and is considering undergoing Tommy John surgery. Surgery would end Miller’s 2017 season and would cut into a significant portion — if not all — of his 2018 season as well.

Miller sent his MRI results to Dr. Neal ElAttrache and Dr. James Andrews for second and third opinions, respectively. He could choose to rehab his elbow rather than undergo surgery, but that comes with its own set of positives and negatives.

Miller lasted only four-plus innings in his most recent start on Sunday and carries a 4.09 ERA on the season, his second with the Diamondbacks. His time in Arizona has not gone well.