The second most shocking thing about the Vernon Wells trade — after the Angels actually agreeing to it — was the fact that it left the Blue Jays with only $17.4 million in payroll commitments for 2012. The conventional wisdom when that news started to spread was that all of that freed-up money would be used to lock up 50-homer-man Jose Bautista. If that’s the plan, it hasn’t been made operation yet, because as Jon Paul Morosi reports, the Jays haven’t even approached Bautista with an offer yet.
Not sure I would either. I’m prepared to admit that the changes in Bautista’s swing in 2010 led him to achieve a new level of homerly-goodness that he will sustain for some time, but I’m not sure I’d wager a multi-year deal on it. If I was writing the checks in Toronto, I’d like to see another season of big power from the guy before grabbing the pen. Yes, that’s a gamble too inasmuch as Bautista will be a free agent after 2011 and could go anywhere, but who’s to say this isn’t 1961 Norm Cash or 1973 Davey Johnson we’re talking about?
It may cost the Jays the couple extra million they’re going to have to pay if they lose their arbitration case. It may cause Bautista to look for employment elsewhere in 2012 if he goes crazy again. But really, I’d be loathe to give the guy a multi-year deal after what could very easily be the best year he’ll ever have.
Great moments in scouting. MLB.com’s Richard Justice spoke to an unnamed scout about the Astros, currently holding the American League’s best record at 76-47. The scout said that the Astros strike out too much and it will catch up with them. Justice pointed out that the Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball. The scout responded, “I don’t believe that.”
Justice, of course, is correct. The average major league team has struck out 1,006 times entering Sunday’s action. The Astros have by far the lowest total at 827, followed by the Indians at 881 and the Pirates at 882.
This scout doesn’t represent all scouts, but this is one of the major problems that advocates of statistics were trying to highlight before Sabermetrics became popular a decade ago. It’s a pattern. Person believes thing. Person either cherry-picks evidence to defend belief or is shown evidence that belief is not factually true and ignores it. Person refuses to change belief, using one of many excuses.
The other problem this highlights is the fallacy of “the eye test,” which is shorthand for treating a scout’s observations as sacrosanct due to his or her experience and knowledge of the game. In this case, the scout ignored easily accessed information, went with his gut, and turned out to be completely wrong. Furthermore, if “the eye test” were legit, the scout would’ve known that, for example, Yulieski Gurriel and Jose Altuve hardly ever strike out (11.1 and 12.4 percent strikeout rates, respectively). In fact, no one on the Astros’ roster (min. 230 PA) has a strikeout rate above 21 percent; the league average is 21.5 percent.
This isn’t to impugn the practice of scouting as a whole. There are a lot of things scouts can tell you about a player that data cannot and that has value. But for easily-researched claims like “the Astros strike out too much,” there’s no reason to trust a scout over the stats.
The Mets acquired right-handed reliever Jacob Rhame from the Dodgers, the team announced on Sunday. Rhame is the player to be named later in the trade that sent outfielder Curtis Granderson to Los Angeles on Friday night. He’s expected to report to the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.
Rhame, 24, pitched through his second Triple-A campaign with the Oklahoma City Dodgers in 2017, collecting two saves in 41 appearances and logging a 4.31 ERA, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.3 SO/9 through 48 innings. While his ERA saw a sharp spike from its modest 3.29 mark in 2016 (perhaps thanks in part to a midseason DL stint due to an undisclosed injury), he’s controlling the ball better than he has in several years and has drawn some attention with a fastball that occasionally touches 98 MPH on the radar gun.
The Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been at its finest over the last few weeks, ranking 16th among its major league competitors with a collective 4.50 ERA and 2.4 fWAR, but likely isn’t looking to add an extreme fly ball pitcher to its staff just yet. Until he gets his big league break, Rhame will beef up Triple-A Vegas’ relief corps alongside fellow right-handers Yaisel Sierra, Joe Broussard and Josh Ravin.