Fun stuff from Dave Cameron, as he went back and tracked all of the players who were referred to as being “in the best shape of their lives” last February to see how they performed in 2010. The results:
So, what can we conclude from the position player side of “The Best Shape Of Their Lives” group? It’s just one season of 17 different players, so it is nothing like an exhaustive study, but there doesn’t appear to be strong evidence that it is a significant predictor of a strong season on the way. These guys did slightly better than expected, but the overall bump was small, and it almost entirely disappears if you remove Miguel Cabrera’s sobriety from the sample.
I’m torn. If these results become widely known, writers may stop describing players as being in the best shape of their life, and that would take away a good 20% of my posts between December and March. On the other hand, to the extent a couple still continue to use the practice, it’s now-proven lack of merit renders the whole exercise even more hilarious than it used to be when the matter was uncertain.
(thanks to Lukeheart80 for the heads up)