Balance of power tilts towards NL this winter


Just not the power itself, because that’s mostly AL bound. But a review of the players switching leagues so far this winter definitely favors the NL, mostly because that’s where the pitching is going.

AL to NL
Cliff Lee – Phillies
Zack Greinke – Brewers
Shaun Marcum – Brewers
Javier Vazquez – Marlins
Kerry Wood – Cubs
J.J. Putz – Diamondbacks
Matt Guerrier – Dodgers

Carlos Pena – Cubs
Orlando Hudson – Padres
Lance Berkman – Cardinals
John Buck – Marlins
Jason Bartlett – Padres
Bill Hall – Astros
Lyle Overbay – Pirates
Ty Wigginton – Rockies
Jose Lopez – Rockies

NL to AL
Pedro Feliciano – Yankees
Hisanori Takahashi – Angels

Adrian Gonzalez – Red Sox
Adam Dunn – White Sox
Josh Willingham – Athletics
Mark Reynolds – Orioles
Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Twins (from Japan)
Russell Martin – Yankees
Miguel Olivo – Mariners
Alcides Escobar – Royals

The AL’s top imports so far are a pair of former Mets relievers and it could enter 2011 missing a full quarter of its top 20 starting pitchers. Lee and Greinke were certainly among the top 10, and Marcum belonged in the next 10. Next is Andy Pettitte, who still might opt to call it a career. Also, there’s Carl Pavano. I wouldn’t really put Pavano in the top 20, but he did go 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA for the Twins last season. He and Lee tied for the AL lead in complete games with seven.

All of that pitching making its way out of the league would seem to be good news for the offensive imports. Gonzalez, Dunn and Reynolds could combine for 110 homers next year. The AL hasn’t lost a whole lot offensively. I hesitated to even include Berkman, who has spent his entire career in the NL outside of two unproductive months with the Yankees. Pena could bounce back and Buck was an All-Star last season, but the hitting side of things definitely favors the AL.

The rest of the winter should belong to the AL as well. The Yankees, Angels and Rangers all appear to have more money to spend than any NL team. It’s unlikely that Adrian Beltre will switch leagues, and bats like Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche may make their way to the AL. We could also see AL contenders make plays for Carlos Zambrano, Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco and others in trade talks.

2018 Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2018 season. Next up: The Toronto Blue Jays.

The Toronto Blue Jays were a fourth place team last year, winning only 76 games. Of course they were in last place almost all season long and avoided the cellar by a single game on the final day of the season, so it was actually a bit worse than that. With some additions, some additions-by-subtractions, some improved health and some pretty reasonable cases for bounce backs from key players, however, there’s a lot of reason to believe that they’ll improve on that showing in 2018.

The rotation looks to be pretty spiffy. It was middle-of-the-pack last year despite the far below average performance of Francisco Liriano and the absence of Aaron Sanchez for most of the year due to injury. Liriano is gone and Sanchez is back now, and he has looked great in spring training. New in town is Jaime Garcia, who ate 150 innings at about a league average rate last year, which would be a big improvement over Liriano.  Marcus Stroman and J.A. Happ are both coming off of excellent campaigns and are the sort of 1-2 punch a contender needs. Marco Estrada had a down year after a really nice 2016, but he righted the ship pretty well in the last two months of last season and it’s not unreasonable to think that he’ll improve over last year. It’s a solid bunch, among the best in the AL. The only concern will be health, as there is not a lot of starting depth in the system after the top five.

The bullpen is anchored by Roberto Osuna. Or at least tentatively anchored. He was lights out in the first half last year but experienced some anxiety issues and performance falloff in the second half, blowing a lot of saves and seeing his ERA balloon. The Jays brought in a trio of former late-inning specialists to bolster the pen: John Axford, Tyler Clippard and Seung-hwan Oh. If none of them are needed to take over for Osuna — who looks great this spring — John Gibbons will still have a nice bunch of relievers to mix in wherever needed. The bullpen is a strength.

The same cannot be said for the lineup. It’s likely to be better than last year, but really, it can’t be worse, right? It was 15th in runs scored in 2017 despite playing in a hitter-friendly park and hitting a good many homers, suggesting that the team just didn’t have great all-around hitting. It’s still not great, but at least some improvement seems inevitable.

The big gun, Josh Donaldson, missed a lot of time last year and he’s healthy again. Justin Smoak had a breakout year in 2017 and, even if he falls back a bit, he’s not a problem. The rest of the infield was a big problem, but there’s reason to believe it’ll be better. No, you can’t depend on shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to be healthy — and he’s not at the moment, starting the year on the disabled list — but his fill-ins, and fill-ins for injured second baseman Devon Traivs last year were absolutely terrible. That situation has been improved with the addition of Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte. Health + depth will go a long way to fixing what was a mess of an infield at times in 2017.

The outfield is less certain to improve. Acquiring Curtis Granderson is not necessarily a balm. He looked good for the Mets last year but he looked absolutely lost once he was traded to the Dodgers. He just turned 37 and the Jays are counting on him to look like the Mets version rather than the Dodgers version. Not sure how safe a bet that is. Randal Grichuk will take over right from Jose Bautista, who was a big liability in 2017, and is an improvement. Not that that’s saying all that much given how Grichuk has experienced declines two years running. Elsewhere, Russell Martin and Kendrys Morales aren’t spring chickens anymore and each of them were below average bats last year.

Overall, the offense looks certain to be bad, even if it’s better than it was in 2017. One way to make it better would be for the Jays to get aggressive with top prospects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, currently slated for Double-A. There are no indications at present that they’ll do that and my guess is that they’ll be September callups at best.

Where does that leave us? The Yankees and Red Sox are stacked, of course, and the AL East looks like it’s back to the “Big Two, Little Three” model we saw back in the early-to-mid 2000s. In the era of two Wild Cards, however, you can finish in third place and still have some October glory. Given their offensive challenges, I think that snagging that second Wild Card may be harder for Toronto than it will be for fellow also-rans in L.A., Texas, Seattle or Minnesota. With this rotation they’ve got a puncher’s chance at it, but they’re gonna need a lot of bats to have renaissance seasons to get it done.

Prediction: Third Place, AL East.