Braves rotation

Not so fast on that “best rotation of all time” business

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Last night, in an admitted fit of hyperbole and sleep-deprivation, I wrote that the 2011 Phillies may be better than those Braves rotations of the 1990s.  I still think such a thing is possible inasmuch as it would not take a career year from each and every one of them to match what the 1997 or 1998 Braves did, even if it may require something close to it.  But to actually predict such a thing is probably folly, in the same way that it is folly to ever predict that we’ll soon see the best-ever anything.

Mark Armour — friend, longtime HBT reader and, most importantly for our purposes today, excellent baseball scholar and author — wrote to me this morning to help set me straight.  The below-analysis is completely his own, not mine, but I’m not block quoting it because it would be too long and unreadable that way. So take it away Mark:

  • Greg Maddux’s first 10 years with the Braves (1993-2002) he was 178-77 (average 18-8), averaging 231 innings, a 2.51 ERA (171 ERA+).  The best pitcher of all time in my opinion.
  • Tom Glavine had a rough first few years (he came up at 21) and a long tail to his career.  However, over the years 1991-2002 (his final 12 years with the Braves), he finished 209-102 with a 3.15 ERA, averaging 225 innings per year with a 134 ERA+.  A machine.
  • John Smoltz from 1991 to 1999 (before he moved to the pen) was 129-84 over 212 innings per year and a 127 ERA+.
  • The fourth starter varied over this period, but was generally very good–Neagle, Millwood, Avery, etc.
  • Halladay has gone 151-69 over the past nine years, 147 ERA+ over 218 innings.  Well short of Maddux, but ahead of Glavine.  Pretty friggin’ great.
  • Giving Lee the best of it, you have to ignore everything before 2008.  His ERA+ the past three years: 168. 131, 130, averaging 220 innings pitched a year.  Looking ahead, I can see a couple of Glavine level seasons for him, but Glavine did it for 12 years.
  • Oswalt has had a Glavine like first half of his career, 10 years of 135+ ERA over 200 innings per year.  He has not had Glavine’s durability, which is true of basically everyone.
  • Giving Hamels the best of it, he has averaged 13 wins and a 125 ERA+ and 203 innings over the past four years.

But we are looking ahead, right, looking to 2011?   The Phillies top three pitchers will be 34, 32, and 33 years old.  The chances of them having years like the Braves had every single year for 10 years is pretty much zero.  Their pasts are pretty good, but the 2011 Phillies will not have a rotation like the Braves.  I predict that only Halladay a perhaps Lee will have a Glavine like season (220 innings, 135 ERA+) among the four pitchers.  Oswalt is less likely to hold up for that many innings, and Hamels has never had a year even approaching this level.

Man, those Braves were good!

It’s Craig again:  I agree with most of that, and I agree that it will be highly unlikely for the 2011 Phillies to match the Braves rotation at its height.  The point here, however, which remains true from last night, is that unlike the case for almost every single team out there, it’s not impossible for the Phillies to do it. While Maddux at his peak is pretty untouchable, all four of the Phillies top starters are capable of putting up Cy Young years next season, and all are at least capable of matching Glavine and Smoltz at their best.

But no one gets rich betting on such things, so let’s hold off giving out best-ever accolades until next October, OK?

Diamondbacks, A.J. Pollock avoid arbitration with two-year contract

Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock drives in two runs against the Cincinnati Reds during the eighth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Gary Landers)
AP Photo/Gary Landers
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Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports that the Diamondbacks and outfielder A.J. Pollock have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year extension. The deal is worth $10.25 million, per ESPN’s Buster Olney.

Pollock was arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. The 28-year-old requested $3.9 million and was offered $3.65 million by the Diamondbacks when figures were exchanged on January 15. It wasn’t much of a gap, but the two sides were ultimately able to find common ground on a multi-year deal. Pollock will still be under team control for one more year after this new deal expires.

Pollock is coming off a breakout 2015 where he batted .315/.367/.498 with 20 home runs, 76 RBI, and 39 stolen bases over 157 games. He ranked sixth among position players with 7.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), according to Baseball Reference.

Report: Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson agree to two-year, $29 million extension

Toronto Blue Jays' Josh Donaldson celebrates his two run home run against the Kansas City Royals during the third inning in Game 3 of baseball's American League Championship Series on Monday, Oct. 19, 2015, in Toronto. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
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The Blue Jays and 2015 American League Most Valuable Player Josh Donaldson have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $29 million contract, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.

Donaldson was arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter. He filed for $11.8 million and was offered $11.35 million by the Blue Jays when figures were exchanged last month. It wasn’t a big gap, but since the Blue Jays are a “file and trial” team, they bring these cases to an arbitration hearing unless a multi-year deal can be worked out. As opposed to last winter, they were able to avoid a hearing this time around. Donaldson was originally a Super Two player, so he’ll still have one year of arbitration-eligibility once this two-year deal is completed.

The 30-year-old Donaldson is coming off a monster first season in Toronto where he batted .297/.371/.568 with 41 homers while leading the American League with 123 RBI.

Giants and Brandon Belt have an arbitration hearing scheduled for Wednesday

San Francisco Giants'  Brandon Belt reacts after being called out on strikes by home plate umpire Jim Joyce to end the top of the first inning against the Colorado Rockies in a baseball game Friday, Sept.. 4, 2015, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
AP Photo/David Zalubowski
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Brandon Belt filed for $7.5 million and was offered $5.3 million by the Giants when arbitration figures were exchanged last month. That’s a pretty sizable gap. While there’s still a chance that an agreement will be worked out at the last minute, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that an arbitration hearing is scheduled for Wednesday.

The Giants haven’t gone to an arbitration hearing since 2004, when they lost to catcher A.J. Pierzynski. Schulman hears from one person involved that because of the gap between Belt and the Giants, there’s a real chance this will break that string and require a hearing.

Belt batted .280/.356/.478 with 18 home runs and 68 RBI over 137 games in 2015, but he dealt with concussion symptoms for the second straight season. An arbitration hearing could bring some unpleasant conversation to the surface.

Padres sign veteran utility player Skip Schumaker

Cincinnati Reds' Skip Schumaker is tagged out at home plate by San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey during the seventh inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2015, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
AP Photo/Ben Margot
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The Padres have inked veteran utility player Skip Schumaker to a minor league contract, per FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

Schumaker, who turned 36 last week, has spent the last two seasons with the Reds. He batted .242/.306/.336 with one home run and 21 RBI over 131 games last season while making starts between all three outfield spots and second base. Cincinnati cut ties with him in November after declining a $2.5 million club option for 2016.

While Schumaker had to settle for a non-guaranteed deal here, it would be no surprise to see him land a bench job with the Padres come Opening Day.