Dennis Eckersley

Closers do nothing to help teams hold ninth inning leads

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Some pretty startling stuff from Joe Posnanski today, who was snooping around in the stats, looking at what percentage of games teams win when they have ninth inning leads. He figured — as I would have — that due to bullpen specialization and the advent of the fireballing closer, teams held on to such leads far more often now than they used to. Nope:

The truth is that all the bullpen advances have had ABSOLUTELY ZERO EFFECT on how much more often teams win games they’re leading in the ninth inning. Zero. Nada. Zilch. The ol’ bagel.

Teams won 95.5% of their ninth-inning leads in 2010. Teams won 95.5% of their ninth-inning leads in 1952.

Pretty astonishing. That stat has rarely changed. What’s more, Posnanski finds that even having Marinao Rivera or Dennis Eckersley doesn’t change the equation that much.

Which isn’t to say that a team could just chuck their closers right now and be done with it. The entire pitching staff has been bent over time in order to make room for one inning specialists. Teams couldn’t simply go back to 1952-style pitcher usage, because they don’t have 1952-style pitchers. And it’s possible — though I’m not sure how one would research it — that the change in pitcher usage has led to fewer pitcher injuries because more guys are carrying the load. I’m not sure that’s even knowable, actually, because of the way we classified injuries 40 and 50 years ago compared to the way we do today. Guys who just pitched poorly back then may be on the DL today because we realize, hey, torn labrum.

But this data certainly suggests that closers have accomplished basically one thing since their creation: they’ve managed to get teams to pay closers a lot of money.

Shelby Miller will return to D-Backs’ rotation on Wednesday

PHOENIX, AZ - JULY 06:  Shelby Miller #26 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a pitch during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Chase Field on July 6, 2016 in Phoenix, Arizona.  (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
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Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Shelby Miller will return to the Diamondbacks’ starting rotation on Wednesday to start against the Giants at AT&T Field.

Miller had an abysmal first half of the season, which included a stint on the disabled list with a finger injury caused by his follow-through. In 14 starts with the D-Backs this season, Miller put up a 7.14 ERA with a 50/34 K/BB ratio in 69 1/3 innings.

Miller was demoted to Triple-A Reno and made his first start shortly after the All-Star break. In eight starts in the minors, Miller compiled a much-improved 3.91 ERA with a 55/10 K/BB ratio in 50 2/3 innings.

The Diamondbacks acquired Miller along with minor leaguer Gabe Speier from the Braves this past winter in a heavily-criticized trade that sent Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, and 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson to Atlanta.

Video: Keith Hernandez has fun with the telestrator

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 17:  Former Major League Baseball first baseman Keith Hernandez gets readt to throw out the first pitch prior to game one of the 2015 MLB National League Championship Series between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets at Citi Field on October 17, 2015 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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The Mets’ broadcast trio of Gary Cohen and former major leaguers Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez ranked third out of 30 teams in FanGraphs’ 2016 Broadcaster Rankings for good reason. Beyond great play-by-play calling and in-game analysis, the three clearly have fun doing their jobs. It’s what makes bad broadcasts stick out like a sore thumb and makes other broadcasts, like the Mets’, a daily must-watch.

During the fourth inning of Tuesday night’s game between the Mets and Marlins, Hernandez decided to test out a new telestrator installed in the SNY broadcast booth. First, he drew a circle over Darling’s head, then replaced it with a spotshadow circle. Before putting his toy away, Hernandez showed off the “cone of silence,” which he quickly renamed the “Gary Cohen of silence.”

10/10, would watch again.