The Yankees decline to offer Derek Jeter arbitration

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Teams have until midnight tonight in order to offer arbitration to free agents.  If they do, and the players accept, the player will stay with the team and there will be a fun arbitration. If they do and the player declines, the team will get draft picks from whatever team eventually signs the free agent. If they don’t offer arbitration, the team gets nothing in return.

There’s always a gamble involved here, with a team often wanting to get the draft pick compensation, but not wanting to get stuck with the free agent in the event he accepts arbitration. The most famous recent example of this was Rafael Soriano accepting the Braves’ offer of arbitration last winter, which freaked the Braves out, as they had already signed Billy Wagner to be their closer and had no desire to pay Soriano what he would have received in arbitration. That led to a panic trade of Soriano to the Rays for a bucket of warm spit.  OK, that’s not fair. You could at least use a bucket of warm spit to melt ice off your driveway. The Braves got nothing useful in return.

So that’s the setup, and the decisions on arbitration offers will be coming in all day. So far we have two: the Tigers and the Yankees.  The Tigers have declined to offer arbitration to any of their free agents (Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, and Gerald Laird).  Makes sense because all of them are certain to see their salaries go way down on the market, so they may be inclined to accept arbitration. The Tigers don’t want to chance it, so no offers for them.

Likewise, the Yankees have declined to offer Derek Jeter arbitration. This also makes some sense, not just for the “he may accept and we’ll have to pay him $18 million again” angle — that may not be the worst thing in the world for New York — but also because an offer might antagonize Jeter a bit. Why? Because a free agent with an arbitration offer is less valuable on the open market because any would-be signing teams know they’ll have to give up a pick for him.  Jeter likely isn’t going anywhere else, but it still makes political sense to avoid that kind of thing.

It’s in the Yankees’ best interest, I believe, to make Jeter feel like as big and valuable a man as they can until the precise moment when he agrees to a contract that is more favorable to the team.  Put differently, it’s better for him to extract psychic value from thinking that he could go elsewhere for the biggest bucks than to have to deal with the arbitration offer during conversations with his agent. And ultimately, the Yankees would not like to have to go through all of this garbage again next year like they would if they went to arbitration with the guy.

Anyway, we’ll keep you updated throughout the day on any significant or unexpected arbitration-offer news.

Rangers, Rougned Odor finalize contract extension

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The Texas Rangers announced today that they have finalized a six-year, $49.5 million extension for second baseman Rougned Odor. There is an option for a seventh year that could bring the deal to $52.5 million. That a deal was done was reported over the weekend by Jon Heyman and Evan Grant.

The deal covers Odor’s first three years of arbitration eligibility. Odor had previously agreed to a $563,180 salary for 2017.

The 23-year-old second baseman tallied 33 home runs, 88 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and 89 runs scored in 150 games last season.

2017 Preview: Our Predictions

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By now I don’t need to tell you how silly it is to predict the outcome of a baseball season in which over 2,400 baseball games are played by over a thousand players, all of whom are subject to injury and/or wild variation from past performance or reasonable expectations. Baseball is freakin’ chaos, my friends. And while that is one of the top things to recommend it, it’s also the thing that makes predicting its outcomes a fool’s errand.

Let no one say that Bill, Ashley and I aren’t fools. We’re gonna make our picks anyway, because that’s what we do:

 

ASHLEY’S PREDICTIONS

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Mariners
AL Wild Cards: Astros, Blue Jays

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Cards: Mets, Dodgers

ALCS: Astros vs. Indians
NLCS: Giants vs. Nationals
World Series: Astros vs. Nationals … Nationals win!

AL MVP: Mookie Betts
NL MVP: Kris Bryant
AL CYA: Chris Sale
NL CYA: Madison Bumgarner
AL ROY: Andrew Benintendi
NL ROY: Dansby Swanson
AL MOY: A.J. Hinch
NL MOY: Bruce Bochy

 

BILL’S PREDICTIONS

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
AL Wild Cards: Rangers, Blue Jays

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Mets, Cardinals

ALCS: Indians vs. Rangers
NLCS: Cubs vs. Dodgers
World Series: Dodgers vs. Rangers, Dodgers win in five games.

AL MVP: Manny Machado
NL MVP: Corey Seager
AL CYA: Chris Sale
NL CYA: Noah Syndergaard
AL ROY: Yoan Moncada
NL ROY: Dansby Swanson
NOTE: Bill did not pick Manager of the Year recipients because he is a communist who does not believe in honoring those who benefit from the labor of others. Then I shamed him about it on Twitter, so he pitched A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker.

 

CRAIG’S PREDICTIONS

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
AL Wild Cards: Mariners, Tigers

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Mets, Giants

ALCS: Red Sox vs. Indians
NLCS: Cubs vs. Dodgers
World Series: Red Sox vs. Cubs, Cubs win in seven games

AL MVP: Mookie Betts
NL MVP: Yoenis Cespedes
AL CYA: Justin Verlander
NL CYA: Clayton Kershaw
AL ROY: Andrew Benintendi
NL ROY: Hunter Renfroe
AL MOY: A.J. Hinch
NL MOY: Joe Maddon

Mark it down, you guys. And then please forget it, because we’re gonna pretend these predictions never happened come October.