Cameron Maybin trade a bigger gamble for Marlins than Padres

5 Comments

Constricted by a payroll that’s barely a third of that of division leader Philadelphia, the Florida Marlins should be rolling the dice on high-upside players like Cameron Maybin.  Instead, they chose Saturday to give up on the 23-year-old center fielder, sending him to San Diego for a pair of setup men in Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.

For as long as he’s been around, Maybin is still a pup, one who has hit .325/.401/.477 in 428 Triple-A at-bats.  He’s a career .306/.393/.478 hitter in the minors.  There’s no doubt he’s struggled in the majors, but some of that may have been the result of the Marlins trying to force him into a top-of-the-order role he still wasn’t ready for.  Maybin hit .257/.323/.391 in 499 at-bats in his three seasons with Florida.  He came in at .234/.302/.361 in 291 at-bats in 2010.

The relievers the Marlins are getting back are hardly worthless.   Webb, 25, has a power sinker that makes him look like a closer on his best days.  He’s my choice to be the team’s best reliever next year.  I’m not so high on Mujica, a modest flyball pitcher who has given up 28 homers in 163 1/3 innings the last two years despite pitching half of his games in Petco Park.  He has terrific control, and he should be a fine innings eater in the middle of the pen.  However, his numbers will likely suffer out of San Diego.

This just seems like a backwards trade.   The team that finished two games out of the postseason last year is the one that should be giving up on a youngster in exchange for solidifying the bullpen.  Instead, that’s what the team that finished 18 games out of first place is attempting to do.

And it’s not as though the Marlins have a replacement for Maybin ready to step in.   The other player they used in center field last year, Cody Ross, was given away to the Giants and apparently did some cool stuff in the postseason.  Emilio Bonifacio could handle the position defensively, but he’s a big liability in anything more than a utility role.  Maybe the Marlins will get a young center fielder back in a Dan Uggla or Ricky Nolasco trade.  Alternatively, they could see what the A’s want for Rajai Davis or Ryan Sweeney.

Maybin’s arrival in San Diego could result in Tony Gwynn Jr.’s exit.  Gwynn is an excellent defender in center field, but he doesn’t really have the bat to be of any real use off the bench.  Maybin will get every chance to start for San Diego, but the club should hang on to Chris Denorfia as a fallback.

The Padres will plug their bullpen holes easily enough, so there isn’t a lot of downside for them here.   With his quality glove and pop at the plate, Maybin remains a great bet to have a decent career as a regular even if he never truly fulfills his potential.   He’s an easy upgrade over Gwynn, and the Padres were able to retain their financial flexibility in getting him.  Score one for GM Jed Hoyer.

Phillies, Red Sox interested in Carlos Santana

Getty Images
6 Comments

The Phillies and Red Sox appear intent on pursuing free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports. Santana rejected a one-year, $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Indians on Thursday and is expected to draw widespread interest on the market this winter. The Mets, Mariners, Angels and Indians could make a play for the infielder, though no serious offers have been made this early in the offseason.

Santana, 31, is coming off of a seven-year track with the Indians. He batted .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and 3.0 fWAR last season, making 2017 the fourth-most valuable year of his career to date. Although he was primarily stationed at first base over the last year, he could step back into a hybrid first base/DH role with the Red Sox, who are hurting for infield depth with Hanley Ramirez still working his way back from shoulder surgery.

As for Santana’s other suitors, the Mariners are far less likely to pursue a deal after trading for Ryon Healy last Wednesday. Neither the Mets nor the Phillies have a DH spot to offer the veteran infielder, and the Phillies’ Rhys Hoskins appears to be blocking the way at first base. Then again, Santana may not find a more enticing offer outside of Cleveland, where Edwin Encarnacion might otherwise be the club’s best option at first base. During the GM meetings, Indians’ GM Mike Chernoff said he “love to have both [Santana and Jay Bruce] back” in 2018, but hasn’t backed up that love with any contract talks just yet.