Why is home field advantage no big advantage?


Buster Olney — or, rather, his research guy Kenton Wong — notes today that since the advent of divisional series play, the team with home field advantage in the divisional series has won
just 31 of the 60 series (25 of 48 since it changed to a 2-2-1 format in 1998). Since the advent of the LCS in 1969, teams with home-field advantage are 39-41.  So yeah, maybe home field advantage isn’t that huge of an advantage.

Which goes against our predispositions — as well as some pretty major home-road splits by some teams this season — which hold that home cookin’ does a baseball game good. I’m not sure anyone can come up with a great explanation for this, but here’s my stab:

The thing that gives you home field advantage is the better overall record. The thing that gives you the better overall record over the course of a long, long season is depth, both in the rotation and otherwise.  That depth, however, is seriously overrated in the postseason when you can do crazy things like lean on a couple of hot relievers and top starters, rather than go five deep, day-in-day-out. Meanwhile, the teams without home field probably had to fight tooth-and-nail to get their playoff spot, and thus were on more of a playoff footing longer, relying on a couple of top guys.

There might be a dozen things wrong with that, but I can’t do any better. Well, I could cite random chance, but people really, really hate when you do that when talking about baseball.

Ken Griffey Jr. will be on the cover of MLB The Show 17

SEATTLE - APRIL 18:  Ken Griffey Jr. #24 of the Seattle Mariners bats against the Detroit Tigers at Safeco Field on April 18, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
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Sony San Diego announced on Thursday that Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. will grace the cover of its next baseball video game, MLB The Show 17. The game is scheduled to be released on March 28, 2017 for the PS4.

Considering that the baseball and video game fans with disposable income are the people who grew up watching Griffey play, the decision comes as no surprise. It’s just shocking that this hadn’t been done before. The Show has featured current stars on its cover including Josh Donaldson, Yasiel Puig, Miguel Cabrera, and Andrew McCutchen, but this will be the first time a retired player will be featured on the cover.

Griffey, of course, is no stranger to video game covers. He was the inspiration for Ken Griffey Jr. Presents Major League Baseball (Super Nintendo), Ken Griffey Jr.’s Winning Run (Super Nintendo), Major League Baseball Featuring Ken Griffey Jr (Nintendo 64), and Ken Griffey Jr.’s Slugfest (Nintendo 64, Game Boy Color).

Griffey, 46, was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame this past July along with Mike Piazza.

Curt Schilling is already getting clobbered by Elizabeth Warren in the 2018 senate race

NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 27:  Former ESPN Analyst Curt Schilling talks about his ESPN dismissal and politics during SiriusXM's Breitbart News Patriot Forum hosted by Stephen K. Bannon and co-host Alex Marlow at the SiriusXM Studio on April 27, 2016 in New York, New York.  (Photo by Cindy Ord/Getty Images for SiriusXM)

I realize it’s early. I realize that we have one big election coming up in less than two weeks and that 2018 may as well be 2218 as far as the election is concerned. But it’s probably worth mentioning that, at the moment, Curt Schilling isn’t doing too well in the Massachusetts Senate race.

To be fair, he hasn’t officially declared himself a candidate yet. He said he has to get the OK from his wife first. But as a famous Massachusetts resident, it’s not like he needs to spend a lot of time working on the stuff just-declared candidates do. He’s got name recognition bleeding out of his socks. Which makes this somewhat sobering:

It’s been many, many years since I worked on a political campaign, but I feel qualified to give Schilling some advice: more memes. Post as many political memes on Facebook as Twitter as you can. It doesn’t even matter if they’re true as long as they feel true to you. Right now the important thing is to mobilize the base.

Yep, fire everyone up. They’ll certainly flock to you then. Good luck, Curt.