Tommy John surgery isn't a death sentence for Strasburg

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Be prepared to hear a lot of people use Mark Prior in the same sentence as Stephen Strasburg in the days and months ahead. Please don’t listen to them. This would be a far worse scenario if we were talking about Strasburg’s shoulder. Thankfully, we aren’t.

Though today’s news is a very tough blow for the Nationals as a franchise, it doesn’t mean Strasburg’s career is over. Far from it. There are numerous examples of pitchers that have come back from Tommy John surgery to enjoy success in the major leagues. Here’s just a few of them.

Josh Johnson: Maybe the most significant example of a young pitcher thriving post-op, Johnson was 12-10 with a 3.50 ERA over his first 39 games (29 starts) in the majors before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2007 at the age of 23. He’s been even better since his return in July of 2008, going 33-11 with a 2.98 ERA. Among starting pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched during that time, he ranks 10th in ERA and 11th in strikeouts and wins.

Chris Carpenter: Carpenter has endured numerous arm problems throughout the course of his career, but he has re-emerged as one of the best pitchers in the sport after missing most of the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to Tommy John surgery. Carpenter is 4th among major league starters with a 2.55 ERA since his return in July of 2008.

Ryan Dempster: Dempster is an interesting case. He was primarily a starting pitcher before requiring Tommy John surgery in August of 2003 at age 26. He was released by the Reds and then picked up by the Cubs, who used him almost exclusively as a reliever all the way until the start of the 2008 season. Since then, Dempster ranks 13th in MLB with 527 strikeouts in 585 2/3 innings.

A.J. Burnett: Some Yankees fans will scoff at this, but Burnett is a significant example of a pitcher who has found sustained success after TJ surgery. Burnett underwent the procedure in April of 2003 when he was with the Marlins at age 26. Since he returned in June of 2004, Burnett is 79-64 with a 3.95 ERA, averaging 8.5 K/9. He had some setbacks with his elbow and shoulder during the 2006 and 2007 seasons, but Burnett ranks seventh among starting pitchers in strikeouts since 2004.

Francisco Liriano: I’m going to throw this one out there as a little bit of a devil’s advocate. For the rosy pictures I’ve painted above, Liriano is an example of a pitcher who struggled to find his footing after Tommy John surgery.  Liriano was regarded as one of the brightest young arms in the game when he went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA in 28 games (16 starts) as a 22-year-old rookie with the Twins in 2006. He went under the knife in November, missed the entire 2007 season and showed a lack of velocity in 14 starts with the Twins in 2008. Back as a full-time starting pitcher in 2009, Liriano struggled again, this time posting a 5.80 ERA in 29 outings (24 starts). It wasn’t until this season, nearly four years later, did Liriano begin to show the velocity that made him an emerging ace as a rookie. Through 25 starts, the now 26-year-old is 12-7 with a 3.41 ERA and ranks third in the American League with 171 strikeouts.

Though all the pitchers I mentioned above have found success in the major leagues again, they have all taken very different routes to get there. And at various points in their careers, to boot.

Here’s a few more recent notables: Tim Hudson, Billy Wagner, Brian Wilson, Hong-Chih Kuo (twice), Shaun Marcum, Joakim Soria, Carl Pavano, C.J. Wilson, Rafael Soriano, Jaime Garcia.

This doesn’t mean Strasburg will be a slam-dunk. Take a look here and you’ll see a list littered with names of could-have-been’s and never-were’s. The important thing is that like the pitchers I mentioned above, Strasburg already has elite skills to fall back on. The actual act of repairing or reconstructing the ligament isn’t going to make him a better pitcher, necessarily, but his rehab from the surgery is the key. The scary part for major league hitters is that he has the potential to come back from the surgery even stronger than he was before, if that is even possible. 

Report: Dexter Fowler will take a physical in St. Louis on Friday

CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02:  Dexter Fowler #24 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after lining out during the third inning against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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Update (8:51 PM EST): The deal is in place, according to Heyman.

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Update (8:27 PM EST): Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals made an “over-the-top offer” to Fowler to ensure he’d sign.

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Frank Cusumano of KSDK Sports reports that free agent outfielder will take a physical in St. Louis on Friday. Presumably, that means that Fowler and the Cardinals have gotten pretty far along in negotiations.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports recently reported that Fowler was looking for $18 million per year. The Blue Jays reportedly made an offer to Fowler in the four-year, $16 million range several days ago. The Cardinals’ offer to Fowler, if there is indeed one, is likely somewhere between the two figures.

Fowler, 30, is coming off of a fantastic year in which he helped the Cubs win their first World Series since 1908. During the regular season, he hit .276/.393/.447 with 13 home runs, 48 RBI, 84 runs scored, and 13 stolen bases in 551 plate appearances.

Fowler rejected the Cubs’ $17.2 million qualifying offer last month. While the QO compensation negatively affected Fowler’s experience in free agency last offseason — he didn’t sign until late February with the Cubs — his strong season is expected to make QO compensation much less of an issue.

Braves acquire Luke Jackson from the Rangers

ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 16:  Relief pitcher Luke Jackson #53 of the Texas Rangers  throws during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Park on September 16, 2015 in Arlington, Texas. Texas won 14-3. (Photo by Brandon Wade/Getty Images)
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Tommy Stokke of RanRag Sports reports that the Braves and Rangers agreed to a trade. According to ESPN’s Keith Law, the Braves will receive pitcher Luke Jackson from the Rangers in exchange for pitchers Tyrell Jenkins and Brady Feigl.

Jackson, 25, is under team control through 2022. He has logged only 18 innings in the majors, yielding 14 runs on 22 hits and eight walks with three strikeouts. While Jackson has struggled with control, the Braves likely see upside because his fastball sits in the mid- to high-90’s.

Jenkins, 24, is also under team control through 2022. The right-hander made eight starts and six relief appearances in his first major league season in 2016, putting up a 5.88 ERA with a 26/33 K/BB ratio over 52 innings.

Feigl, 25, was an undrafted free agent and was signed by the Braves in 2013. The lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 and briefly rehabbed in rookie ball this past season.