So, will Clemens get convicted?

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As I said earlier today: an indictment is one thing. A conviction, well, that’s something else entirely.  With the massive, massive caveat that I haven’t seen the indictment yet, my gut tells me that Clemens stands a good chance of walking away from these charges a free man.

Why?  His accuser, mostly.

There will certainly be more to the feds’ case than Brian McNamee’s word against Roger Clemens’ word.  There may be some DNA evidence on the syringes McNamee kept. There will likely be testimony from Andy Pettitte, Jason Grimsley, Jose Canseco and others. It’s not going to be a two man show. But Brian McNamee is the most important prosecution witness, and his credibility is more than a bit shaky.

McNamee is an admitted drug dealer. Worse for his credibility as a witness is that he has a history of lying or being suspected of lying, and on at least one occasion, it occurred in some seriously seedy circumstances.

While employed by the Yankees, he was caught having sex in a hotel pool with a woman
who was basically passed out
. Witnesses told police that they believed
McNamee drugged the woman. Police asked McNamee about it and he denied it.
The police reported reflected their belief that they believed McNamee was lying to them, but ultimately charges were never brought due to lack of evidence. More germane to this particular case is that McNamee once wrote an editorial for the New York Times defending
Roger Clemens against accusations of PED use. He later admitted that the whole thing was made up.

While McNamee will certainly be able to say that (a) the lack of charges in the pool thing back up his story; and (b) that he lied in the New York times in an effort to protect his employer, the fact is that, at a trial, he will be asked the one question ever lawyer waits his whole career to ask of an adversarial witness: “Mr. McNamee, were you lying then or are you lying now?”  Defense counsel — if they have a lick of ability — will pummel McNamee, far more so than most prosecution witnesses get pummeled in cases like this.

None of which is to say that McNamee is lying now.  Having closely followed the Mitchell Report and the Congressional hearing and everything before and since, it’s my gut feeling that he’s telling the truth.  But juries are outrageously sensitive to questions of a witnesses credibility, and McNamee will come under serious fire on this score.

Many will cite the success rate of federal prosecutors in handicapping this case. It’s something like 90%.  But it’s less in perjury cases and even less in cases involving well-heeled defendants with fancy defense counsel who fight the case hard — as Clemens no doubt will — as opposed to copping a plea.

Throw in the very damaged credibility of the government’s primary witness, and I think Clemens has a puncher’s chance. 

The Rockies are promoting outfield prospect David Dahl

SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 10:  David Dahl of the U.S. Team looks on prior to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at PETCO Park on July 10, 2016 in San Diego, California.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Harry How/Getty Images
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In a wave of prospect advancement news on Sunday, the Rockies have joined the fray. The Astros are calling up Alex Bregman. The Diamondbacks are calling up Braden Shipley. And the Rockies will call up outfield prospect David Dahl on Monday, Nick Groke of The Denver Post reports. The Rockies are expected to designate outfielder Brandon Barnes for assignment to create roster space.

Dahl, 22, was selected by the Rockies in the first round — 10th overall — in the 2012 draft. He started the season at Double-A, batting .278/.367/.500 with 13 home runs, 45 RBI, 53 runs scored, and 16 stolen bases in 322 plate appearances. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque earlier this month. In 16 games there, Dahl has hit an outstanding .484/.529/.887 with five homers, 16 RBI, and 17 runs scored in 68 plate appearances.

Dahl is considered the Rockies’ second-best prospect and #40 overall in baseball according to MLB Pipeline. He got some camera time during the 2016 Futures Game two weeks ago, going 0-for-2.

David Robertson and adventures with the win statistic

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 26:  David Robertson #30 of the Chicago White Sox pitches in the 9th inning for a save against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S. Cellular Field on June 26, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The White Sox defeated the Blue Jays 5-2.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
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David Robertson got the win in both White Sox victories today, a double-header versus the Tigers. In the first game, he got the final out of the eighth inning and pitched a scoreless ninth before the White Sox walked off on an Adam Eaton RBI single.

It was the second game that made things interesting. Robertson took the mound at the start of the ninth inning staked to a 4-1 lead. He’d fork up a leadoff home run to Nick Castellanos. Then, after getting two outs, served up another solo shot to Tyler Collins followed by a game-tying Jarrod Saltalamacchia dinger. Robertson would get out of the inning without any further damage.

In the bottom of the ninth, Melky Cabrera sent the White Sox home winners again, drilling a walk-off RBI single. That gave Robertson the win, his second of the afternoon. As Baseball Tonight notes on Twitter, Robertson is the first player in the last 100 years to give up three home runs in an inning or fewer and still wind up with the victory.

Robertson has had a rough go of it since the All-Star break. He yielded four runs in his first appearance back on July 18. On the season, he’s saved 23 games in 27 appearances with a 4.46 ERA and a 50/21 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings.