Twins overvalued the save stat and overpaid for Matt Capps

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Matt Capps was available for nothing this offseason.

Non-tendered by the Pirates in December following a career-worst season that saw him post a 5.80 ERA and .324 opponents’ batting
average while serving up 10 homers in 54.1 innings, Capps became a free
agent and signed a one-year, $3.5 million deal with the Nationals in
large part because they were one of the only teams willing to promise
him an opportunity to remain a closer.

And last night the Twins decided to overpay for that closing experience, acquiring Capps from the Nationals for Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa.
To be clear, Capps is a good, solid late-inning reliever. He bounced
back nicely in Washington with a 2.74 ERA and 38-to-9 strikeout-to-walk
ratio in 46 innings and has a 3.50 ERA in 317 career innings. However,
if not for his racking up 93 saves for bad teams I’m convinced the Twins
never would have even considered this move.

Much like the Twins turning to Jon Rauch with Joe Nathan
sidelined, Capps’ reputation as an “experienced closer” comes largely
from teams simply giving him a shot to accumulate saves. Rauch has done a
perfectly fine job filling in for Nathan, converting 21-of-25 saves
with a 3.05 ERA and 27-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 38.1 innings, and
if given a longer opportunity may have turned himself into an
“established closer” just like Capps did. Seriously.

Take a look at their respective career numbers as relievers:

           IP     ERA     FIP    SO/9    BB/9     AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
Capps 317 3.50 3.80 7.0 1.7 .263 .302 .415 .717
Rauch 402 3.54 3.90 7.5 2.7 .242 .297 .390 .687

Capps has had better control, Rauch has been tougher to hit, and
their overall effectiveness is nearly identical across the board. If
pressed I’d pick Capps over Rauch because he’s younger and has fared
better in Expected Fielding Independent Pitching
(xFIP), but by far the biggest difference between them is that one has
accumulated saves for four seasons while the other has accumulated saves
for one season.

No one would ever suggest that trading Ramos for a reliever who’s
slightly better than Rauch is a sound idea, yet by focusing on the save
statistic the Twins have done just that and many fans will instinctively
be on board with the move for an “established closer.” Now, don’t get
me wrong: Capps is a quality reliever and represents a clear upgrade to
the bullpen. What he’s not is an elite reliever or enough of an
upgrade to part with Ramos.

Capps is under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next
season as well, which means the Twins essentially traded Ramos and Testa
for 1.5 seasons of him. Unfortunately part of his inflated perceived
value includes his likely price-tag in arbitration, which is sure to
rise from this year’s $3.5 million salary to over $5 million (and
perhaps well over $5 million) thanks to those same shiny-looking save
totals.

Capps makes the Twins better for the final two months of this season
and all of next year, but the improvement isn’t nearly as large as the
“All-Star closer” label would have you believe and the cost involved is
significant in terms of both players and money. Next season the Twins
will pay a premium for a quality setup man they perceive as something
more because of a reliance on a flawed statistic and they gave up a good
catching prospect for the right do that.

In fairness, Ramos’ value is inflated as well. His historic debut
caused the Twins fans who don’t know any better to assume that he was
destined for stardom and his subsequent struggles at Triple-A have
exposed him as a good but not great prospect. However, he still projects
as a good defender behind the plate and a 22-year-old being overmatched
in his first experience at Triple-A is far from disastrous.

I’m not convinced that Ramos will become a star, but the possibility
certainly exists and at the very least he looks capable of developing
into a starting-caliber catcher for many years. Joe Mauer’s
presence meant Ramos had little shot to be that starting-caliber catcher
in Minnesota, but that doesn’t mean the Twins needed to deal him
immediately or when his value was at an all-time low or for an
underwhelming return like Capps.

I have no problem with trading Ramos or trading for bullpen help, and
in the Twins’ minds they just traded him for an “All-Star closer.” In
reality they traded Ramos for a setup-caliber reliever who accumulated
saves on bad teams and is thus overrated and soon overpaid. Among the 93
pitchers who’ve logged 150-plus relief innings in the past three
calendar years, Capps ranks 38th in xFIP, 49th in FIP, 50th in ERA, 61st
in strikeout rate, and 85th in opponents’ average.

You’d think the Twins would have learned something about the
created-not-born nature of the closer role and often spurious value of
saves from Rauch’s relatively successful stint filling in for Nathan,
but instead they just paid a premium for a guy whose perceived value and
ability are much higher than his actual value and ability solely
because of his role and save total. Capps is a good reliever, but the
Twins paid for a great reliever and did so for all the wrong reasons.

Theo Epstein named The World’s Greatest Leader

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Fortune Magazine has put out a list of The World’s Greatest Leaders. Not the greatest business leaders, not the greatest leaders in a given industry, but the Greatest Leaders, full stop. The greatest according to Fortune: The Cubs’ Theo Epstein.

For some context, Pope Francis was third. Angela Merkel was 10th. Lebron James was the next greatest sports leader, ranked 11th. Take Fortune’s methodology with a grain of salt, however, given that it has John McCain above Merkel — what, exactly, does he lead now? — and Samantha Bee in the top 20.

So what makes Theo the world’s best leader according to Fortune?

The Cubs owe their success to a five-year rebuilding program that featured a concatenation of different leadership styles. The team thrived under the affable patience of owner Tom Ricketts, and, later, under the innovative eccentricity of manager Joe Maddon. But most important of all was the evolution of the club’s president for baseball operations, Theo Epstein, the wunderkind executive who realized he would need to grow as a leader in order to replicate in Chicago the success he’d had with the Boston Red Sox.

I don’t want to take anything away from what Theo has done — he’s a Hall of Fame executive already in my view — but I feel like maybe one needs to adjust for the fact that this is a baseball team we’re talking about. They’re the whole world to us and their brands are nationally and even world famous, but as an organization, sports teams are rather small. There are guys who run reasonably-sized HVAC companies with more employees than a baseball team and they don’t get the benefit of an antitrust exemption and a rule which allows them to get their pick of the best new employees if they had a bad year the year before.

Really, not trying to throw shade here, just thinking that being the spiritual father for 1.2 billion Catholics or running a foundation that serves 55 million needy children — like the woman who comes in at number 14 — is a bit of a tougher trick.

But this will make a great framed magazine article on Theo’s wall in Wrigley Field.

 

 

Marcus Stroman named World Baseball Classic MVP

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United States starter Marcus Stroman was named Most Valuable Player of the World Baseball Classic after helping lead the U.S. to its first ever WBC title on Wednesday night in an 8-0 victory over Puerto Rico. Stroman flirted with a no-hitter through six innings, but gave up a double to lead off the seventh before being relieved by Sam Dyson.

Stroman also pitched 4 2/3 scoreless innings against the Dominican Republic in Pool C play on March 11. He struggled in Pool F play against Puerto Rico last Friday, surrendering four runs in 4 2/3 innings.

The WBC MVP award understandably goes to a player of the winning team. However, Wladimir Balentien of the Netherlands deserves special mention. In 26 at-bats during the WBC, he hit a double and had a WBC-high four home runs, 12 RBI, and 12 runs scored while putting up a .615/.677/.1.115 batting line. That’s MVP-esque as far as this tournament is concerned.