Last night in my instant analysis of the Dan Haren trade I suggested that the Diamondbacks were overrating Joe Saunders by focusing on his win-loss record instead of his ERA, secondary numbers, and raw stuff.
Sure enough, interim general manager Jerry Dipoto basically confirmed that in his press conference announcing the deal:
We achieved by maintaining major league quality with a 2008 All-Star in Joe Saunders and a guy who quite frankly has been one of the winners in Major League Baseball. I think he trails only Roy Halladay among major leaguers in total wins. He’s won 63 percent of his games since coming to the major leagues, pitched in the postseason on two different occasions. He’s a quality, durable, steady major league starter. We feel like this club needs that, and a guy with a good deal of playoff experience.
Dipoto quoted his career winning percentage several other times and said stuff like “he goes out and he wins.”
In reality Saunders “went out and won” with the Angels because he got very good support from the lineup and bullpen, which enabled him to accumulate more victories than his 4.29 career ERA warranted on its own. To think that Saunders will automatically continue to win more games than his ERA warrants now that he’s in Arizona shows a lack of understanding about evaluating pitching performances.
Last season Saunders received the most run support of any starter in all of baseball, and so he went 16-7 despite a 4.60 ERA. This season his run support has been merely average, and so he’s just 6-10 despite a 4.62 ERA. He didn’t suddenly forget how to win, he suddenly stopped getting the runs necessary to make him look much better than he actually is.
Diamondbacks fans should hope that Dipoto is simply talking up Saunders’ victory totals and winning percentages as a way to spin the trade in the team’s favor, because if he truly believes those two things are crucial elements to evaluating a pitcher’s future value … well, things may be getting even uglier in the desert.
The Mariners made a handful of roster moves on Sunday afternoon. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. The club optioned pitcher Chase De Jong to Triple-A Tacoma, designated outfielder Leonys Martin for assignment, and recalled first baseman Dan Vogelbach and pitcher Chris Heston from Triple-A.
Martin, 29, struggled to start the season, batting .111/.172/.130 in 58 plate appearances. As Divish noted, Martin was very popular with his teammates in Seattle, so the move was particularly difficult. He is owed the remainder of his $4.85 million salary, making it likely that he’ll clear waivers.
De Jong, 23, struggled in 4 2/3 innings of relief, yielding three runs on three hits and three walks with two strikeouts.
Heston, 29, got off to a good start with Tacoma, putting up a 3.18 ERA over his first three starts.
Vogelbach, 24, was hitting .309/.409/.473 with a pair of home runs in 66 PA with Tacoma, encouraging his call-up.
As it turns out, Derek Jeter isn’t the only former major leaguer interested in the Marlins. Bloomberg’s Scott Soshnick reports that Hall of Fame hurler Tom Glavine has entered the bidding process as part of a group that includes Tagg Romney and several carefully-selected investors. Soshnick adds that Tagg’s father, Mitt Romney, is not part of the bidding process for the Marlins, though Glavine and Romney’s relationship makes an interesting parallel with Derek Jeter and Jeb Bush’s potential partnership during the sale.
According to an unnamed source, current Marlins’ owner Jeffrey Loria is said be fielding offers ranging from $1.2 to $1.3 billion. (To put those figures in perspective, the initial purchase price for the team was $158 million in 2002.) Glavine recently spoke to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo about the bidding process, and revealed that he had been involved in talks about a potential bid since last summer. He also expressed a willingness to step into a leadership role with the Marlins, should the opportunity arise:
I certainly want a role. I’m not going to say I’m the GM, but I know the game pretty well. I understand it. There’s a lot on the business side that I don’t understand, so I’m open-minded about what the best role for me would be and what I like to do the most.
On the one hand, I don’t want to be pompous enough to say I want to step in and run this thing, but at the same time I want to be looking for where I would be best served for the organization if it happens.
Glavine and Romney are currently thought to comprise one of three major parties bidding on the Marlins, including Jeter/Bush and Quogue Capital president Wayne P. Rothbaum.