The next 300-game winner? How about Jamie Moyer?

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When Tom Glavine won his 300th game in 2007 dozens of short-sighted columnists wrote about how he’d be “the last 300-game winner.” He wasn’t, of course. In fact, less than two years later Randy Johnson won his 300th, which resulted in even more columns claiming he’d be the last to join the club.
One of my many pet peeves is the increasing tendency to say something is either “the greatest thing ever” or “the last thing ever” because usually neither is true. In the case of 300 wins it’s silly to think no one will ever accomplish that feat again when multiple pitchers who began their careers in the 1980s–with the same five-man rotations and similar workloads–have done so. As they say, ever is a really long time.
Glavine joined the club in 2007, followed by Johnson in 2009, and before that it was Greg Maddux in 2004 and Roger Clemens in 2003. There will be more 300-game winners, but it may take a while because Jamie Moyer is the only active pitcher with as many as 240 wins. Or maybe Moyer can actually become the next 300-game winner. He tossed seven innings of two-run ball against the Blue Jays yesterday for his 267th victory.
Obviously at age 47 even 33 more wins is a lot to ask for, but Moyer probably has a better chance than most people seem to believe. Which is basically to say he has some chance. Moyer is 9-6 with a 4.30 ERA this season and we’re not quite at the halfway point, so he looks capable of another 6-8 wins in the second half. That would leave him about 25 wins short of 300.
He’s not under contract for next season and that hurts, because 47-year-olds can collapse in a hurry and we’ve seen several elderly stars go unsigned in recent years. However, if Moyer finishes this year with 15 wins and a sub-4.50 ERA presumably the Phillies would welcome him back on a one-year deal that could get him into the 285-290 range heading into 2012.
At that point he’d be 49 years old and Moyer isn’t exactly dominant enough that he can stand to see his skills decline much more and remain effective, but once a pitcher gets into the “countdown” range of 285-290 wins they usually stick around long enough to reach 300. In fact, only five pitchers since 1900 have more than 275 wins but fewer than 300 wins. Moyer as a 300-game winner? It’s not as crazy as you might think.

2017 Preview: The American League Central

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For the past few weeks we’ve been previewing the 2017 season. Here, in handy one-stop-shopping form, is our package of previews from the American League Central

Do the Indians have a weakness? Do the Tigers and Royals have one more playoff push in them or do they have to start contemplating rebuilds? The White Sox and Twins are rebuilding, but do either of them have a chance to be remotely competitive?

As we sit here in March, the answers are “not really,” “possibly,” and “not a chance.” There are no games that count this March, however, so they’re just guesses. But educated ones! Here are the links to our guesses and our education for all of the clubs of the AL Central:

Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins

2017 Preview: The National League East

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For the past few weeks we’ve been previewing the 2017 season. Here, in handy one-stop-shopping form, is our package of previews from the National League East

The Washington Nationals crave a playoff run that doesn’t end at the division series. The Mets crave a season in which they don’t have a press conference about an injured pitcher. The Marlins are trying to put the nightmare of the end of the 2016 behind them. The Phillies and Braves are hoping to move on from the “lose tons of games” phase of their rebuilds and move on to the “hey, these kids can play!” phase.

There is a ton of star power in the NL East — Harper, Scherzer, Cespedes, Syndergaard, Stanton, Freeman — some great young talent on ever roster and, in Ichiro and Bartolo, the two oldest players in the game. Maybe the division can’t lay claim to the best team in baseball, but there will certainly be some interesting baseball in the division.

Here’s how each team breaks down:

Washington Nationals
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves