Lost in Dustin Pedroia’s heroics last night is that Jonathan Papelbon blew a save on back-to-back days for the first time in his career and blew consecutive saves, period, for just the third time.
Here’s what he said afterward:
I’ve got to go back to the drawing board. It’s just that simple. If I sit here and try to make things more complicated than they are I’m only going to hurt myself in the long run. I wasn’t crisp in my delivery. That’s basically it. I mean, it’s just like anything else. The season’s a heavyweight fight. I lost Round 3. We’ve got 12 rounds to go.
Papelbon is absolutely right about not overreacting to a bad stretch in a long season and the good news is that he recovered from blowing a two-run lead in the ninth inning to pitch a scoreless 10th inning and actually pick up the win. However, the bad news is that his ERA is up to 3.98, which is by far the worst mark of his career, and Papelbon is showing significant signs of decline in several other areas:
* He’s striking out a career-worst 7.7 batters per nine innings, which is 22 percent worse than his previous career-low of 9.9 and 26 percent below his career mark of 10.4 coming into the season.
* He’s served up six homers in just 31.2 innings, which is already the highest total of his career. Prior to this season he allowed an average of six homers per 85 innings.
* He’s walking 3.4 batters per nine innings, which is even higher than his career-high mark of 3.2 set last season. Prior to 2009 he walked just 2.1 batters per nine innings.
* His average fastball velocity is down 0.2 miles per hour from last season and 0.8 mph from 2008, which would be insignificant if not for the fact that Fan Graphs shows his fastball as being a negative-value pitch so far this year after being a huge asset each year from 2005-2009.
* His average slider velocity is down 1.7 mph from last season and 4.4 mph from 2008.
* He’s throwing his splitter far more often than he did in 2008 or 2009, using it 15.7 percent of the time despite the pitch not actually producing positive results.
* Opponents are making more contact on his pitches inside the strike zone than at any point in his career, connecting on 87.8 percent of their swings.
I’m certainly not ready to write off Papelbon as an elite closer, but even looking deeper than the back-to-back blown saves the signs aren’t very encouraging. Meanwhile, setup man Daniel Bard has a 2.11 ERA, .167 opponents’ batting average, and 40/12 K/BB ratio in 38.1 innings.
The Astros, Braves and Nationals came sniffing around White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana during the Winter Meetings, but each appeared to find the Sox’ asking price well beyond what they were willing to give up for the starter. On Saturday, Peter Gammons revealed that the White Sox had floated Francis Martes, Kyle Tucker and Joe Musgrove as a possible return for Quintana.
It’s a strategy that worked well for Chicago in the past, most recently when they dealt Chris Sale to the Red Sox for Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, among others, and flipped Adam Eaton to the Nationals for a trio of pitching prospects. Astros’ GM Jeff Luhnow didn’t appear eager to sacrifice some of his core talent to net a high-end starter, however, and told the Houston Chronicle’s Jake Kaplan as much on Wednesday:
We’re prepared to trade players to improve our club right now. […] We’re just not prepared to trade away players that are core to our production in 2017, and those are sometimes the players that are required to get these deals done.
While Lunhow was speaking specifically to the inclusion of third baseman Alex Bregman in future deals, it’s not unrealistic to think that top prospects Francis Martes and Kyle Tucker would also be considered instrumental to the Astros’ plans for the next few seasons.
Martes, 21, currently sits atop the team’s top prospect list on MLB.com. The right-hander blazed through his first full season in Double-A Corpus Christi, posting a 3.30 ERA and career-best 9.4 K/9 over 125 1/3 innings in 2016. Tucker, meanwhile, profiles as the Astros’ second-best prospect and made a successful jump to High-A Lancaster last season, slashing .339/.435/.661 in 69 PA. Rookie right-hander Joe Musgrove is the only player left off the top prospect list, but he got off to a decent start with the club in 2016 as well, going 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 3.44 K/BB rate in 62 innings during his first major league season.
Twins’ right-handed pitching prospect Yorman Landa passed away in a tragic car accident on Friday night, per a team statement. According to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, 22-year-old Landa was in the passenger seat of the vehicle when it struck a fallen tree.
Daniel Szew, Landa’s agent, spoke highly of the young pitcher, who was one of his first clients back in 2010. Szew acknowledged Landa for helping him expand his company, LA Sports Management, and referred to the late pitcher as a leader and his “little brother.”
He was very even-keeled,” Szew said. “That was his personality. He wasn’t wild. That’s why this is so tragic. He wasn’t a wild guy. He was a happy-go-lucky guy who took life as it came, and he was super happy — always happy.
If leadership was one facet of Landa’s personality, so was loyalty. The 22-year-old agreed to a minor league contract with the Twins on Tuesday after getting cut from the 40-man roster, fulfilling a promise to re-sign with the club despite fielding multiple offers from competing teams. The deal included an invite to spring training, and comments from his agent suggested that the right-hander was “super confident” he’d break through to the major leagues in 2017, notwithstanding a troublesome shoulder injury that hampered his progress in High-A Fort Myers during the 2016 season.
“He never wanted to leave,” Szew told Berardino. “It was the only organization he ever knew.”
Our condolences go out to Landa’s family and the Twins organization during this terrible time.