F-Bomb 2.0: How close is Francisco Liriano to the 2006 version?

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Francisco Liriano has reemerged as an elite pitcher this year
and his
latest masterpiece
came Friday night against the Braves, with 11
strikeouts and zero walks in eight innings of one-run ball. His gem
versus Atlanta marked the second straight start in which Liriano has
allowed just one run while racking up double-digit strikeouts, and
overall this season he’s 6-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 87/21 K/BB ratio in 80.2 innings spread over 12 starts.

Now around four years removed from Tommy John elbow surgery Liriano has clearly
re-established himself as an ace, but because he was the ace
prior to going under the knife the temptation will always be there to
compare what he’s doing now to the 2006 version that eviscerated the
league as a 22-year-old rookie.

Thanks to abundance of information available
at Fan Graphs
, we can get a pretty good idea of how Liriano in 2010
stacks up to Liriano in 2006 …

Let’s start from the top, with
his fastball
:

FASTBALL          2006     2010
Velocity 94.7 93.5
Percentage 43.6 50.7
Runs per 100 +0.13 +0.50

Liriano in 2006 threw his fastball an average of 94.7 miles per hour,
but his velocity has dipped to 93.5 miles per hour this season. While
that still ranks seventh in the league, a decline of 1.2 miles per hour
is a significant drop in velocity. However, despite Liriano’s fastball
being slower he’s thrown it 16.2 percent more often and the pitch has
also been more effective, rating 0.50 runs above average per 100
offerings compared to 0.13 runs above average per 100 in 2006.

In other words, Liriano’s fastball has gotten worse but he’s gotten
better at throwing it, which is natural for a pitcher as he gains more
experience and also a credit to the work he’s done on the long road back
from surgery. Obviously it would be great if Liriano threw 95 mph
again, but having better command of the pitch at 93.5 mph can actually
be even better. Now let’s take a similar look at
his slider
:

SLIDER            2006     2010
Velocity 87.7 85.0
Percentage 37.6 32.6
Runs per 100 +3.47 +2.71

Surgery cost Liriano even more velocity on his slider than his
fastball, with the pitch going from an average of 87.7 mph in 2006 to
85.0 mph this year. Not only did his 87.7 mph slider lead the league in
2006, no one else even cracked 87.0. This year his slider velocity is
13th in the league and unlike with the fastball he hasn’t been able to
compensate by throwing it better. He’s relied on the slider 13.2 percent
less and the pitch has been 21.9 percent less effective.

Of course, less effective is a relative term. His slider has gone
from +3.47 runs per 100 pitches in 2006 to +2.71 runs per 100 pitches
this year, which is a big drop. Yet even at 21.9 percent less effective
than it was before surgery Liriano’s slider has been the second-best in
the AL. That shows just how devastating his slider was in 2006, but also
that, as Chipper Jones put
it after facing him Friday
, he still throws “some disappearing” and
“Randy Johnson-type” sliders.

CHANGEUP          2006     2010
Velocity 83.5 84.8
Percentage 18.7 16.7
Runs per 100 +2.82 -0.99

Liriano’s changeup was underrated in 2006 as everyone focused on his
mid-90s fastball and ridiculous slider, but it ranked as one of the best
in the league at +2.82 runs per 100 pitches. Since coming back from
surgery Liriano’s changeup velocity has actually risen by 1.3 mph, but
that’s not a good thing and when combined with a 1.2 mph decline in
fastball velocity equals a much less effective weapon. In fact, his
changeup has gone from great in 2006 to bad in 2010.

In terms of individual pitches, Liriano’s fastball is slower but
ultimately more effective, his slider is slower and less effective but
still an incredibly dominant offering, and his changeup is faster but
significantly less effective. Now let’s move on to Liriano’s actual
results
with a year-to-year comparison of his ERA, Expected
Fielding Independent Pitching
, strikeout rate, walk rate, and
ground-ball percentage:

YEAR      ERA     xFIP     SO/9     BB/9      GB%
2006 2.16 2.35 10.7 2.4 55.3
2010 2.90 2.95 9.7 2.4 49.1

Those stats are all more or less what you’d expected based on the
individual pitch changes. He’s lost one strikeout per nine innings and
has induced 11 percent fewer ground balls, which makes sense given the
drops in velocity and slider ridiculousness. However, his walk rate has
remained constant at 2.4 batters per nine innings, which can seemingly
be linked to Liriano’s improved fastball command canceling out the
decline in raw, blow-it-past-everyone stuff.

What made Liriano so amazing in 2006 is that he combined an
incredible number of strikeouts with tons of ground balls, which is the
perfect recipe for a pitcher. Surgery has cost him about 10 percent of
both his strikeouts and ground balls, but Liriano still ranks third in
the league in strikeout rate and 12th in ground-ball rate. In terms of
overall effectiveness, he’s gone from a 2.16 ERA and 2.35 xFIP
in 2006 to a 2.90 ERA and 2.95 xFIP this season.

Here’s an
even further breakdown of his results
, based on strikes, swings,
and contact:

YEAR     ZONE     SWNG     CONT     Z-SW     Z-CN     O-SW     O-CN
2006 54.8 47.8 65.4 64.5 76.0 27.5 35.3
2010 47.5 46.9 75.5 63.3 87.1 32.2 54.8

Liriano has actually thrown 13.3 percent fewer pitches in the strike
zone (ZONE) this season, which perhaps could be chalked up to his no
longer being able to simply overpower everyone with strikes. Opponents
are swinging (SWNG) at basically the same number of pitches, hacking at
48 percent in 2006 and 47 percent this season, but they’re making
contact (CONT) on those swings 15.4 percent more often this year.

On pitches inside the zone opponents are swinging (Z-SW) at the same
rate as 2006, but are making 15 percent more contact (Z-CN). On pitches
outside the zone opponents are swinging (O-SW) 17 percent more often and
also making 55 percent more contact (O-CN). I’m not smart enough to
know for sure, but it seems like the slider going from ridiculous to
merely excellent and the changeup going from excellent to bad could
explain the swing and contact changes.

Add it all up and Liriano clearly isn’t the same pitcher he was
before elbow surgery. His velocity is down, his slider and changeup
aren’t as good, he’s getting 10 percent fewer strikeouts and ground
balls, and hitters are having a much easier time making contact against
him on pitches in and out of the strike zone. He’s also relying less on
his slider and more on his fastball, likely due in part to the injury
risk of the slider and in part to his improved command of the fastball.

It seems clear that the phenom who toyed with the league in 2006 is
simply gone forever, but the good news is that Liriano was so
spectacularly awesome then that even this post-surgery version with
obvious declines in numerous areas is one of the elite pitchers in all
of baseball. His combination of strikeouts and ground balls still ranks
among the best in the league and his raw stuff is still capable of
overpowering hitters, as the Braves saw first hand Friday.

Oh, and the other good news? F-Bomb 2.0 is still five months from his
27th birthday.

Wade Davis? Greg Holland? Who needs ’em?

KANSAS CITY, MO - AUGUST 21: Joakim Soria #48 of the Kansas City Royals throws in the eighth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Kauffman Stadium on August 21, 2016 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
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The story of the two-time defending AL champion and current defending World Series champ Kansas City Royals cannot be told without talking at length about their bullpen.

In 2014, Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera formed a shutdown brigade that not only made it next to impossible for the opposition to mount late rallies, but managed something which seemed utterly impossible before 2014: they turned Ned Yost into a tactical genius. Indeed, the only time Yost got criticism at all that fall was when he messed with the autopilot formula that had that three-headed monster handling the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.

Much the same happened in 2015, of course, despite Holland’s sharp decline and eventual injury. Davis and Herrera continued their dominance. They were joined by Ryan Madson and a cast of other effective relievers who, along with timely hitting, great defense and good health, helped propel the Royals to the title.

This year had not been quite the same story. Holland has been out all year and Davis, while effective when he’s pitched, has missed time due to injury. As has longtime contributor and presumptive next-man-up Luke Hochevar. Herrera is basically still Herrera, but Ned Yost has been presented with a decidedly different set of choices. Lots of choices and Ned Yost don’t always go together well, but lately that hasn’t mattered.

Last night the Royals’ bullpen came in to a close game and tossed three scoreless innings. That set a franchise record with 32 straight scoreless frames, besting the previous record set back in the club’s inaugural season in 1969. The streak is a huge part of why the Royals have won nine games in a row.

Unlike the success of 2014-15, the streak is not a three-man show. As Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star notes, eight different relievers have appeared for Kansas City during the streak, with Joakim Soria and Matt Strahm leading the crew with five and a third innings pitched. Herrera has tossed five scoreless. Otherwise it’s been a group effort with even Peter Moylan offering a couple of scoreless frames. And here you thought Moylan was, I dunno, gearing up for the upcoming Brisbane Bandits season. Nope.

The Royals are still not, in my view anyway, a lock to make the postseason. It’s a a crowded field right now. They’re seven and a half back in the AL Central and four back in the Wild Card with a bunch of teams in front of them. But they’re certainly playing themselves back into the conversation. They’re interesting. And they’re doing it in much the same way they’ve done it the past two years. Only with different dudes doing the do.

Video: Mookie Betts made a ridiculous throw last night

Screen Shot 2016-08-24 at 10.16.51 AM
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Mookie Betts was an infielder once upon a time and the knock on him both then and since his move to the outfield was that maybe his arm was not fantastic. As an infielder there was talk that he was better suited to the right side than the left. As an outfielder people were saying that, with work, his arm could be average and/or serviceable. Not bad, of course, but not anything to write home about.

Maybe we need to reassess that, because last night he uncorked one from right field that would make Dwight Evans says “dang, man.”

 

And the throw mattered, as Kiermaier represented the tying run in a game that, at the time, the Sox were leading 2-1.

Betts is a dangerous middle-of-the-order bat at age 23. And now he shows that he’ll nail a fast runner with a frozen rope if he has to. The guy is going to win an MVP award some day. And maybe not just one.