F-Bomb 2.0: How close is Francisco Liriano to the 2006 version?

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Francisco Liriano has reemerged as an elite pitcher this year
and his
latest masterpiece
came Friday night against the Braves, with 11
strikeouts and zero walks in eight innings of one-run ball. His gem
versus Atlanta marked the second straight start in which Liriano has
allowed just one run while racking up double-digit strikeouts, and
overall this season he’s 6-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 87/21 K/BB ratio in 80.2 innings spread over 12 starts.

Now around four years removed from Tommy John elbow surgery Liriano has clearly
re-established himself as an ace, but because he was the ace
prior to going under the knife the temptation will always be there to
compare what he’s doing now to the 2006 version that eviscerated the
league as a 22-year-old rookie.

Thanks to abundance of information available
at Fan Graphs
, we can get a pretty good idea of how Liriano in 2010
stacks up to Liriano in 2006 …

Let’s start from the top, with
his fastball
:

FASTBALL          2006     2010
Velocity 94.7 93.5
Percentage 43.6 50.7
Runs per 100 +0.13 +0.50

Liriano in 2006 threw his fastball an average of 94.7 miles per hour,
but his velocity has dipped to 93.5 miles per hour this season. While
that still ranks seventh in the league, a decline of 1.2 miles per hour
is a significant drop in velocity. However, despite Liriano’s fastball
being slower he’s thrown it 16.2 percent more often and the pitch has
also been more effective, rating 0.50 runs above average per 100
offerings compared to 0.13 runs above average per 100 in 2006.

In other words, Liriano’s fastball has gotten worse but he’s gotten
better at throwing it, which is natural for a pitcher as he gains more
experience and also a credit to the work he’s done on the long road back
from surgery. Obviously it would be great if Liriano threw 95 mph
again, but having better command of the pitch at 93.5 mph can actually
be even better. Now let’s take a similar look at
his slider
:

SLIDER            2006     2010
Velocity 87.7 85.0
Percentage 37.6 32.6
Runs per 100 +3.47 +2.71

Surgery cost Liriano even more velocity on his slider than his
fastball, with the pitch going from an average of 87.7 mph in 2006 to
85.0 mph this year. Not only did his 87.7 mph slider lead the league in
2006, no one else even cracked 87.0. This year his slider velocity is
13th in the league and unlike with the fastball he hasn’t been able to
compensate by throwing it better. He’s relied on the slider 13.2 percent
less and the pitch has been 21.9 percent less effective.

Of course, less effective is a relative term. His slider has gone
from +3.47 runs per 100 pitches in 2006 to +2.71 runs per 100 pitches
this year, which is a big drop. Yet even at 21.9 percent less effective
than it was before surgery Liriano’s slider has been the second-best in
the AL. That shows just how devastating his slider was in 2006, but also
that, as Chipper Jones put
it after facing him Friday
, he still throws “some disappearing” and
“Randy Johnson-type” sliders.

CHANGEUP          2006     2010
Velocity 83.5 84.8
Percentage 18.7 16.7
Runs per 100 +2.82 -0.99

Liriano’s changeup was underrated in 2006 as everyone focused on his
mid-90s fastball and ridiculous slider, but it ranked as one of the best
in the league at +2.82 runs per 100 pitches. Since coming back from
surgery Liriano’s changeup velocity has actually risen by 1.3 mph, but
that’s not a good thing and when combined with a 1.2 mph decline in
fastball velocity equals a much less effective weapon. In fact, his
changeup has gone from great in 2006 to bad in 2010.

In terms of individual pitches, Liriano’s fastball is slower but
ultimately more effective, his slider is slower and less effective but
still an incredibly dominant offering, and his changeup is faster but
significantly less effective. Now let’s move on to Liriano’s actual
results
with a year-to-year comparison of his ERA, Expected
Fielding Independent Pitching
, strikeout rate, walk rate, and
ground-ball percentage:

YEAR      ERA     xFIP     SO/9     BB/9      GB%
2006 2.16 2.35 10.7 2.4 55.3
2010 2.90 2.95 9.7 2.4 49.1

Those stats are all more or less what you’d expected based on the
individual pitch changes. He’s lost one strikeout per nine innings and
has induced 11 percent fewer ground balls, which makes sense given the
drops in velocity and slider ridiculousness. However, his walk rate has
remained constant at 2.4 batters per nine innings, which can seemingly
be linked to Liriano’s improved fastball command canceling out the
decline in raw, blow-it-past-everyone stuff.

What made Liriano so amazing in 2006 is that he combined an
incredible number of strikeouts with tons of ground balls, which is the
perfect recipe for a pitcher. Surgery has cost him about 10 percent of
both his strikeouts and ground balls, but Liriano still ranks third in
the league in strikeout rate and 12th in ground-ball rate. In terms of
overall effectiveness, he’s gone from a 2.16 ERA and 2.35 xFIP
in 2006 to a 2.90 ERA and 2.95 xFIP this season.

Here’s an
even further breakdown of his results
, based on strikes, swings,
and contact:

YEAR     ZONE     SWNG     CONT     Z-SW     Z-CN     O-SW     O-CN
2006 54.8 47.8 65.4 64.5 76.0 27.5 35.3
2010 47.5 46.9 75.5 63.3 87.1 32.2 54.8

Liriano has actually thrown 13.3 percent fewer pitches in the strike
zone (ZONE) this season, which perhaps could be chalked up to his no
longer being able to simply overpower everyone with strikes. Opponents
are swinging (SWNG) at basically the same number of pitches, hacking at
48 percent in 2006 and 47 percent this season, but they’re making
contact (CONT) on those swings 15.4 percent more often this year.

On pitches inside the zone opponents are swinging (Z-SW) at the same
rate as 2006, but are making 15 percent more contact (Z-CN). On pitches
outside the zone opponents are swinging (O-SW) 17 percent more often and
also making 55 percent more contact (O-CN). I’m not smart enough to
know for sure, but it seems like the slider going from ridiculous to
merely excellent and the changeup going from excellent to bad could
explain the swing and contact changes.

Add it all up and Liriano clearly isn’t the same pitcher he was
before elbow surgery. His velocity is down, his slider and changeup
aren’t as good, he’s getting 10 percent fewer strikeouts and ground
balls, and hitters are having a much easier time making contact against
him on pitches in and out of the strike zone. He’s also relying less on
his slider and more on his fastball, likely due in part to the injury
risk of the slider and in part to his improved command of the fastball.

It seems clear that the phenom who toyed with the league in 2006 is
simply gone forever, but the good news is that Liriano was so
spectacularly awesome then that even this post-surgery version with
obvious declines in numerous areas is one of the elite pitchers in all
of baseball. His combination of strikeouts and ground balls still ranks
among the best in the league and his raw stuff is still capable of
overpowering hitters, as the Braves saw first hand Friday.

Oh, and the other good news? F-Bomb 2.0 is still five months from his
27th birthday.

Ichiro was happy to see Pete Rose get defensive about his hits record

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 14:  Ichiro Suzuki #51 of the Miami Marlins warms-up during batting practice before a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on June 14, 2016 in San Diego, California.   (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
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You’ll recall the little controversy last month when Ichiro Suzuki passed Pete Rose’s hit total. Specifically, when Ichiro’s Japanese and American hit total reached Rose’s American total of 4,256 and a lot of people talked about Ichiro being the new “Hit King.” You’ll also recall that Rose himself got snippy about it, wondering if people would now think of him as “the Hit Queen,” which he took to be disrespect.

There’s a profile of Ichiro over at ESPN the Magazine and reporter Marly Rivera asked Ichiro about that. Ichiro’s comments were interesting and quite insightful about how ego and public perception work in the United States:

I was actually happy to see the Hit King get defensive. I kind of felt I was accepted. I heard that about five years ago Pete Rose did an interview, and he said that he wished that I could break that record. Obviously, this time around it was a different vibe. In the 16 years that I have been here, what I’ve noticed is that in America, when people feel like a person is below them, not just in numbers but in general, they will kind of talk you up. But then when you get up to the same level or maybe even higher, they get in attack mode; they are maybe not as supportive. I kind of felt that this time.

There’s a hell of a lot of truth to that. Whatever professional environment you’re in, you’ll see this play out. If you want to know how you’re doing, look at who your enemies and critics are. If they’re senior to you or better-established in your field, you’re probably doing something right. And they’re probably pretty insecure and maybe even a little afraid of you.

The rest of the article is well worth your time. Ichiro seems like a fascinating, insightful and intelligent dude.

There will be no criminal charges arising out of Curt Schilling’s video game debacle

Curt Schilling
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In 2012 Curt Schilling’s video game company, 38 Studios, delivered the fantasy role-playing game it had spent millions of dollars and countless man hours trying to deliver. And then the company folded, leaving both its employees and Rhode Island taxpayers, who underwrote much of the company’s operations via $75 million in loans, holding the bag.

The fallout to 38 Studios’ demise was more than what you see in your average business debacle. Rhode Island accused Schilling and his company of acts tantamount to fraud, claiming that it accepted tax dollars while withholding information about the true state of the company’s finances. Former employees, meanwhile, claimed — quite credibly, according to reports of the matter — that they too were lured to Rhode Island believing that their jobs were far more secure than they were. Many found themselves in extreme states of crisis when Schilling abruptly closed the company’s doors. For his part, Schilling has assailed Rhode Island politicians for using him as a scapegoat and a political punching bag in order to distract the public from their own misdeeds. There seems to be truth to everyone’s claims to some degree.

As a result of all of this, there have been several investigations and lawsuits into 38 Studios’ collapse. In 2012 the feds investigated the company and declined to bring charges. There is currently a civil lawsuit afoot and, alongside it, the State of Rhode Island has investigated for four years to see if anyone could be charged with a crime. Today there was an unexpected press conference in which it was revealed that, no, no one associated with 38 Studios will be charged with anything:

An eight-page explanation of the decision concluded by saying that “the quantity and qualify of the evidence of any criminal activity fell short of what would be necessary to prove any allegation beyond a reasonable doubt and as such the Rules of Professional Conduct precluded even offering a criminal charge for grand jury consideration.”

Schilling will likely crow about this on his various social media platforms, claiming it totally vindicates him. But, as he is a close watcher of any and all events related to Hillary Clinton, he no doubt knows that a long investigation resulting in a declination to file charges due to lack of evidence is not the same thing as a vindication. Bad judgment and poor management are still bad things, even if they’re not criminal matters.

Someone let me know if Schilling’s head explodes if and when someone points that out to him.