The great folks at Baseball Prospectus are once again running playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams, using a formula that plays out the rest of the 2010 season 1,000,000 times. With pretty much every division up for grabs through June 2, it’s at least a fun thing to look at.
Not to spoil the entire read, but here are a few of the more interesting nuggets:
- The Reds, who currently own a one-game lead in the National League Central, have only a 30.5% chance of winning the division.
- The Cardinals, who trail the Reds, have a 63.5% shot at taking the NL Central crown.
- There’s a similar scenario playing out in the American League East, where the Rays lead the Yankees by 2.5 games, but only have a 30.3% chance of winning baseball’s toughest division.
- The Twins, with a 69.1% chance of winning the American League Central, have the highest probability of making the playoffs out of every team in the game.
- Meanwhile the Orioles have the lowest probability of winning a division crown, with a 0.00038% chance of surpassing the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yanks and Rays.
Most of the readers here on HBT are probably already Baseball Prospectus fans, and possibly subscribers, but head on over and pay ’em a visit anyway.
Free agent closer Mark Melancon is entertaining at least two offers in the four-year, $60+ million ballpark, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. The teams thought to be in the running are the Giants and Nationals, with the Giants having a slight edge due to their strong interest in him last summer (per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick).
Crasnick also said that while the Giants are keeping tabs on the top three free agent closers this winter, the other two being Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, they’re leaning toward Melancon as a (slightly) more affordable option in the ‘pen. It’s worth noting that Melancon would not cost the Giants a draft pick if they decided to sign him.
Melancon had an outstanding season in 2016, nearly reaching career-best numbers with a 1.64 ERA, 2.42 FIP and 5.42 K/BB rate in 71 1/3 innings split between the Pirates and Nationals’ bullpens. The veteran right-hander earned his third career All-Star distinction after stifling opposing hitters with a 1.23 ERA and 7.9 K/9 rate in the first half, and went on to appear in his fourth consecutive playoff run.
Despite the Giants’ apparent lead in the bidding for Melancon, Rosenthal mentioned a third mystery team who might throw their hat in the ring as well. No clubs have been name-dropped as of yet.
Former Tigers infielder Casey McGehee has reportedly signed a one-year deal with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.
It’s the fourth move the corner infielder has made in the last two seasons after seeing short-term stints with the Marlins, Giants and Tigers. He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers prior to the 2016 season, providing the club with some infield depth behind 24-year-old Nick Castellanos. When Castellanos hit the disabled list in August with a broken hand, McGehee was recalled from Triple-A Toledo for a 30-game stint and slashed .228/.260/.239 with one extra-base hit in 96 PA. His career batting line (.258/.317/.384 over eight seasons) isn’t too shabby, but his age and a long history of knee injuries puts a damper on his potential.
McGehee last appeared in the NPB circuit in 2013, when he signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. He spent the bulk of his season at the hot corner, batting an impressive .292/.396/.515 with 28 homers in 590 PA and appearing in the Eagles’ first and only championship run to date.
The deal comes with a club option for 2018, Rosenthal reports, though no figure has been specified.