Carlos Silva's comeback hard to buy

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carlos silva cubs.jpgThe Cubs did need some help setting up for Carlos Marmol, but the biggest reason Carlos Zambrano is in the bullpen right now is Carlos Silva’s exceptional start. He’s followed a rather strong spring by going 2-0 with a 1.73 ERA through four outings. This from a pitcher who went 5-18 with a 6.81 ERA for the Mariners the last two years.
Silva, though, does have some history of success. Former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi was mad to give him a four-year, $48 million contract, but in his four previous years as a full-time starter, Silva was very good once (3.44 ERA in 2005), a little above average twice and only a bust in 2006, when he finished with a 5.94 ERA.
However, Silva was an oddity even then. To hear the descriptions, he was an extreme groundball pitcher. However, his groundball rate was never in Brandon Webb-Derek Lowe territory. He was merely above average when it came to keeping the ball out of the air. His strikeout rate was always among the lowest of any starter in the league, and he gave up a fair number of homers. The biggest thing he had going for him was his exceptional walk rate. In 2005, he gave up just seven unintentional walks in 27 starts. A strong outfield defense led by Torii Hunter also helped a bunch.
Because he relies so much on his defense, Silva has always lived on the edge. And the 2008 Mariners were a pretty poor defensive club. The 2009 version was far better, but Silva was hurt and never had a chance to take advantage.
That’s part of what makes this sudden turnaround so baffling. Seattle should have been the ideal setting for Silva to turn around his career. The Mariners currently have an exceptional defense with the game’s best center fielder in Franklin Gutierrez and three more standouts in Jack Wilson, Ichiro Suzuki and Casey Kotchman. Plus, Safeco Field is a pretty tough place for power hitters. The Cubs play in The Friendly Confines and have just one player who has ever sniffed a Gold Glove: first baseman Derrek Lee.
So, let’s look at the reasons Silva might be succeeding as a Cub:
1. He has his sinker producing grounders like never before
Nope. Not even close. In fact, Silva is getting grounders just 41 percent of the time this year, which would be the lowest rate of his career.
2. Well, if he’s not getting grounders with his fastball, maybe he’s throwing it by batters
Silva’s velocity has continued to drop, so that hardly seems to be the case. Silva averaged 92.1 mph with his sinker in his career year in 2005, but it’s declined steadily since. He’s sitting at 89.4 mph this year.
FanGraphs’ numbers also indicate that Silva’s sinker has been less effective at inducing outs than usual.
3. He learned a new pitch over the winter
It sure looks like Silva is throwing the same three pitches he always has. However, it’s possible he legitimately improved his changeup. FanGraphs data says the pitch has been remarkably effective for him so far, and he’s throwing it more than ever. In fact, his success with the changeup, if you believe the numbers, is far and away the biggest difference between this year’s Silva and the usual Silva.
4. Improved command
There’s probably some truth to that. Silva has walked just three in 26 innings to date, even though he’s throwing more offspeed pitches than usual. That’s impressive.
5. Luck
And probably a whole lot of it.
Silva typically gives up homers on 11 percent of his flyballs. This year, he’s allowed just one homer in 26 innings or on three percent of his flyballs.
Silva’s career batting average on balls in play against is .314. His career-best mark is .289 from 2005. This year, he’s at .215.
According to FanGraphs data, Silva’s changeup has been the second most valuable pitch in baseball thus far, behind only Doug Fister’s fastball.
So, yeah, I’d chalk a lot of it up to luck. Maybe Silva’s changeup will hold up better than Fister’s fastball, but it’s far from the best in baseball. If Silva can keep his walk rate down, then the possibility exists that he’ll be a solid fourth starter all year long. However, he’s a 4.50 ERA guy in disguise right now.

Rockies’ Story ties rookie mark with 10th HR in April

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PHOENIX (AP) Trevor Story is undoubtedly the story of the Colorado Rockies’ first month of the season.

The shortstop tied a major league rookie record with his 10th home run in April, a two-run shot that helped the Rockies cruise to a 9-0 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday night. In hitting his 10th home run in 21 games, Story tied George Scott in 1966 as the fastest player in major league history to reach that home run total.

Story tied Jose Abreu of the Chicago White Sox, who hit 10 in April 2014, for the rookie mark. Teammate Nolan Arenado, who also homered, is tied with Story for the major league lead in home runs.

Story took Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray (1-1) deep in the fifth inning.

“Maybe when it’s all said and done it will be something cool to look back on, but right now I’m just worried about winning games,” Story said.

Arenado, Ryan Raburn and Nick Hundley hit solo home runs, Arenado’s blast immediately following Story’s in the fifth to knock Ray out of the game.

Hundley added a two-run double in the eighth after Gerardo Parra‘s RBI double.

Tyler Chatwood (3-2) held the Diamondbacks scoreless on five hits for 6 1/3 innings with four strikeouts and three walks.

The Rockies won for the third time in four meetings against Arizona in Phoenix, and have hit 14 home runs in those four games at Chase Field this season. Story hit four in the season-opening series.

“I feel like it’s always good weather here. We play spring training here, so it’s a familiar place,” Story said. “I grew up playing in the heat, so yeah, I guess you could say I feel comfortable here.”

Ray had not given up a home run in his previous four starts. The Rockies overtook the Diamondbacks for most home runs in the majors with 37 to Arizona’s 36.

“They obviously like swinging the bat in this ballpark,” Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale said. “It’s very obvious that that’s what it is. If you don’t locate your pitches, they’re going to hit them. That’s what happens with confident hitters.”

Raburn led off the fourth with a line drive into the seats in left field. One out later, Hundley homered to left.

“Great player. He’s got a lot of tools and he’s been pretty even-keel,” Raburn said of Story. “Right now he’s getting pitches to hit and he ain’t missing it.”

The Rockies took control in the fifth when Charlie Blackmon led off with a single. Story and Arenado followed with their home runs, and Ray’s night ended after giving up five runs and seven hits. He struck out five and walked two.

“This place has been tough on us the last few years,” manager Walt Weiss said. “Especially last year. It’s good to see us swing the bats and win games, especially on the road where we’ve had some demons in the past.”

DIAMONDBACKS CLAIM ESCOBAR

The Diamondbacks claimed LHP Edwin Escobar off waivers from the Boston Red Sox on Friday, and sent Escobar to Triple-A Reno. Pitcher Matt Buschmann was designated for assignment. Escobar, 24, was a top prospect for the San Francisco Giants before being traded to Boston in 2014. Buschmann made three appearances for the Diamondbacks this season.

TRAINER’S ROOM

Rockies: Blackmon (turf toe) was activated from the 15-day DL and started in center field as the leadoff hitter. The Rockies optioned OF Brandon Barnes to Triple-A Albuquerque to make room for Blackmon. “Unfortunately, it’s a numbers crunch at this point in the construction of our roster, but he’ll be back,” Weiss said of Barnes. … RHP Jason Motte (sore shoulder) threw a bullpen session Friday and is “moving full steam ahead,” Weiss said. … Hundley got some eye drops administered during the fourth inning, coming out from behind the plate and jogging over to the dugout for help from a trainer. … Raburn fouled a pitch thrown high and tight off the bottom of the bat near his hands, and was checked by a trainer when he shook his hands in pain afterward. He was later hit by a pitch. “Just got a little beat up tonight but it’s part of it,” Raburn said.

Diamondbacks: RHP Josh Collmenter, on the 15-day DL, will pitch three innings at Class-A Visalia on Monday as he comes back from shoulder inflammation.

UP NEXT

Rockies: LHP Chris Rusin makes his first start of the season. He’s appeared four times in relief and has a scoreless streak of 9 2/3 innings. He’s 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts against Arizona, all at Chase Field.

Diamondbacks: RHP Zack Greinke (2-2, 6.16 ERA) makes his sixth start of the season. He faced the Rockies on opening day and was tagged for seven runs and nine hits in four innings. He gave up seven runs in his most recent outing, Monday against the Cardinals, but got the win.

Cespedes has 6 RBIs during Mets’ record 12-run inning vs SF

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NEW YORK — Yoenis Cespedes and the New York Mets broke loose for a team-record 12 runs in the third inning Friday night, rolling to their seventh straight victory with a 13-1 blowout of the San Francisco Giants.

Cespedes set a club mark with six RBIs in the inning, connecting for a two-run single off starter Jake Peavy (1-2) and a grand slam off reliever Mike Broadway that capped the outburst.

The early barrage made it an easy night for Steven Matz (3-1) in the opener of a three-game series between the last two NL champions. The left-hander tossed six shutout innings to win his third consecutive start.

Michael Conforto had an RBI double and a run-scoring single in the Mets third, which lasted 39 minutes, 47 seconds. He and Cespedes were two of the four players who scored twice. Asdrubal Cabrera greeted Broadway with a two-run double.

Marlins’ Conley pulled in 8th with no-hit bid, Brewers rally

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MILWAUKEE — Marlins lefty Adam Conley threw no-hit ball for 7 2/3 innings before being pulled by manager Don Mattingly after 116 pitches, and Miami’s bullpen wound up holding off the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 Friday night.

Jonathan Lucroy blooped a single with one out in the ninth off reliever Jose Urena to break up the combo no-hit bid. The ball landed in right field just beyond the reach of diving second baseman Derek Dietrich.

Dietrich was playing in place of speedy Gold Glove winner Dee Gordon, who was suspended by Major League Baseball on Thursday night after a positive drug test.

The 25-year-old Conley (1-1) struck out seven and walked four. Urena replaced him.

The Brewers scored three times on four hits in the ninth. They loaded the bases before A.J. Ramos struck out Jonathan Villarfor his seventh save.

Earlier this month, Ross Stripling of the Dodgers threw no-hit ball for 7 1/3 innings against San Francisco in his major league debut and was taken out after 100 pitches.

Warren G just gave the worst performance of “Take me out the ballgame” ever

Warren G performs at the Warren G NYC Takeover album release party at the Highline Ballroom on Sunday, Aug. 9, 2015, in New York. (Photo by Andy Kropa/Invision/AP)
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It was just over 22 years ago that “Regulate” was released. Amazing track. One of the best. At least according to me and all of the other 40-something white dudes who liked to act cooler than we really were in the 90s, which is all of us.

A lot has happened since then. Nate Dogg died (RIP). Other major figures of west coast hip hop turned into moguls or family friendly movie stars. Everyone’s older. But part of me wonders if any of them are still on the cutting edge in some way or another, either as performers or artists or just as a matter of their own personal stance. Sometimes I wonder if any of them, like so many other artists who came before them, can have a career renaissance in their 40s and 50s.

Maybe. But not Warren G. Man, seriously not Warren G.

 

Here’s to better times: