Make no mistake, people: Ryan Howard's production is declining

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Ryan Howard headshot.jpgI’ve made some comments this afternoon about Ryan Howard likely declining. I’m not a stats guy, though, so I’m just making some guesses, albeit guesses informed by history.  Bill Baer at the Phillies’ blog Crashburn Alley is a stats guy, however, and in the course of assessing the wisdom of the Howard contract extension, he brings some statistical noise that should be unsettling to Phillies fans:

Already, Howard has shown signs of decline as his walk rate has
declined every year since 2007 and sits at a paltry 3.6% thus far in
2010. His BABIP has been lower as more and more teams have employed an
infield shift against him. Opposing teams have also been bringing in
more left-handed relievers to face Howard and his production against
them has swiftly dropped. His strikeout rate has declined gradually but
so has his isolated power. Using FanGraphs’ pitch type linear weights,
Howard’s production against the fastball has dropped every year since
2006. He has swung at more and more pitches outside of the strike zone
every year since he came into the Majors. Finally, his whiff rate
(swinging strike percentage) has increased every year since 2006.

This will be a fun ride for two, maybe even three more years, but it
will quickly become tumultuous.

You don’t have to be a hardcore sabermetrician to grok the point: He’s less patient at the plate than he used to be, fewer batted balls are being turned into hits, which could be because of the shift opposing teams employ, but could also mean that he’s not hitting the ball quite as hard as he used to. His ability to hit lefties has not improved and may, in fact, be declining, if that was even possible. He’s striking out less, but there’s a corresponding drop in his power. He is, however, swinging and missing more often than he used to, even though he’s striking out at slightly lower rates.

None of this is to say Howard is a bad player. But it certainly paints a picture of a player who (a) you shouldn’t expect to improve over the next six years, and who will almost certainly decline; and (b) should not be paid upwards of $25 million a year across so many years.

Paul Janish retires

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MASN’s Roch Kubatko reports that the Orioles granted infielder Paul Janish his release from his Triple-A contract. He will retire and join the coaching staff at Rice University.

Janish, 34, played parts of nine seasons in the majors with the Reds, Orioles, and Braves. He hit .212/.280/.284 over his career, providing most of his value through his fielding and versatility. While he logged most of his time at shortstop, he also played third base and second base and also pitched on two occasions in blowout losses.

Yasmany Tomas to undergo season-ending core muscle surgery on Tuesday

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The Diamondbacks announced that outfielder Yasmany Tomas will undergo season-ending core muscle surgery on Tuesday in Philadelphia. Tomas has been on the disabled list since June 3 with right groin tendinitis and experienced multiple setbacks during his rehab.

Tomas, 26, was in the midst of a disappointing year before the injury, batting .241/.294/.464 with eight home runs and 32 RBI in 180 plate appearances.

The Diamondbacks acquired J.D. Martinez from the Tigers a month ago to help fill the gap in the outfield. Prior to that trade, Chris Herrmann and Daniel Descalso were handling left field. The D-Backs entered Monday’s action holding the second Wild Card slot in the National League by 2.5 games over the Brewers and trailed the Rockies by one game for the first slot.