Springtime Storylines: Will the Reds break .500 for the first time in a decade?

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Reds logo.gifBetween now and Opening Day, HBT will take a look at each of the 30
teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally
breaking down their chances for the 2010 season.  Next up: The Redlegs


The
big question: Will the Reds break .500 for the first time in a decade?

I’m pretty optimistic about this team. Within reason, of course — they won’t seriously challenge the Cardinals and aren’t good enough to compete with the second bananas in the East or the West for the Wild Card — but I think the Reds are going to take a leap forward this year and post their first .500+ season since Bill Clinton was in office.

I think the biggest reason for this is that the Reds are going to have some respectable pitching. Aaron Harang is in a contract year and seems like a good candidate to bounce back to his former, quasi-ace status. Bronson Arroyo had an under-the-radar 15-win season last year. Homer Bailey’s return and resurgence in the second half last season — a 1.70 ERA in 58.3 innings with a 53/24 K/BB ratio in his final 9 starts — was largely ignored because it occurred on a team going nowhere, but he gave those who did pay attention a reminder of why everyone was so high on him a couple of years ago.  Johnny Cueto has great stuff, has shown flashes of brilliance and, at age 24, could certainly take a step forward.  Edinson Volquez won’t be back until August, but if the Reds are in it he could provide a late boost or, at the very least, some hope for 2011.  And of course there’s a fellow named Chapman down in Louisville who will almost certainly contribute this year.

The biggest question is the offense. It’s a group that, if everything goes right, could be more than respectable. Joey Votto is a young star, Scott Rolen is an old star, and if both of them can stay in the lineup the Reds have a couple of bats that will certainly play. Jay Bruce is a highly-touted enigma. I could see him turning in an All-Star breakout season just as easily as I could see him put up one of those ugly 30 home run, 150 strikeout, terrible OBP lines.  It’s nice to see that Walt Jocketty hasn’t given Dusty Baker some new version of Willy Taveras or Corey Patterson on whom to waste hundreds of plate appearances, but there is still uncertainty in centerfield and left. Drew Stubbs is an interesting prospect who came up and hit for some power late last year and he’ll hit better than Tavares did, but how much better is an open question.

Like I said: this is an “if everything breaks right” kind of team. Given that the majority of things rarely tend to break right in any given setting, I don’t think the Reds are going to win 90 games or anything. But I do think they’ll be a surprising bunch, primarily due to pitching, and will finish second — and above .500 — in an otherwise weak division.

So what
else is
going on?

  • The Aroldis Chapman watch, of course. As I mentioned yesterday, traditional arb-clock politics is going to cover this, as it probably should from the Reds’ perspective. Besides, if he embarrasses AAA hitters for a month or two his legend will only grow, leading to a big sell-out crowd in Great American Ballpark some day in June. OK, like I did with Strasburg, let’s call this thing: Friday, June 11th vs. the Royals. Which is who I think Strasburg will start against too, both for competitive and attendance reasons. I may invite the Royals to my son’s t-ball league too.
  • I really like a Jonny Gomes/Chris Dickerson platoon in left.  Dickerson has an OBP-heavy career .845 OPS against righties. Gomes is a career .885 OPS hitter against lefties. These are the sorts of things that get me kinda excited but which make my wife and non-baseball fan friends scratch their heads.
  • Dusty Baker is in his third season as Reds’ manager. He’s a lame duck too, and one which would probably require a lot of money to keep around. I don’t hate Dusty Baker as much as a lot of web writers do, but I don’t think he’s the best guy to be leading this team either, so part of me hopes that the Reds improve enough to give the fans hope but not so much that the team feels obligated to bring Dusty back.
  • Travis Wood is likely to take the fifth starter’s spot. Here the Reds have a couple of good options — the other being lefty Mike Leake — but Wood seems like he has the edge. Assuming both Harang and Arroyo are allowed to walk next year — a safe assumption given their salaries — both of these guys are likely to be starting for the Reds in 2011.

So
how
are they gonna do?

I think the Reds will be a pleasant surprise. The sort of team that everyone imagines the Marlins are supposed to be every year: 85 wins, maybe, and kinda dangerous to visitors who are more squarely in a pennant race than they themselves are. The sort of team that causes Lou Piniella to finally throw his hands up and say “ah, screw it, I’m retiring” and really angers Brewers fans who want to know why they can’t get a couple of decent pitchers like the Reds have.

Prediction: A somewhat distant second place in the NL Central.

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And That Happened: Friday’s Scores and Highlights

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Here are the rest of Friday’s scores and highlights:

Red Sox 9, Angels 4: David Ortiz commanded center stage at Fenway Park for the first time since 2016, becoming the 10th player in franchise history to have his number retired. The club hung his jersey number between those of Wade Boggs and Jackie Robinson and invited the slugger to toss out the ceremonial first pitch, which landed just a few feet wide of the plate:

Following the ceremony, the Red Sox capped their tribute with a decisive 9-4 win over the visiting Angels, powered by 6 1/3 innings of four-run ball from Rick Porcello and a two-RBI performance from Sandy Leon. They remain tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East.

Nationals 6, Reds 5 (10 innings): Bryce Harper came through in the clutch on Friday, walking off on a two-out single in the 10th after Brian Goodwin tied the game with a home run in the seventh inning. It was the first lead the Nats held all night after the Reds’ offense erupted with a four-run inning to start the game, and, thankfully, the only one they needed to preserve a nine-game advantage in the NL East.

Yankees 2, Rangers 1 (10 innings): Everyone was a winner on Friday — well, except for the Rangers. The Yankees clung to first place with an airtight performance from Masahiro Tanaka, who matched Yu Darvish inning-for-inning and finished the night with just three hits, two walks and nine strikeouts. The offense did the rest, saving their first run for the ninth inning on Brett Gardner‘s one-out home run and securing the win with Ronald Torreyes‘ walk-off hit in the 10th.

If it feels like it’s been a while since the Yankees won a game via walk-off, that’s because they haven’t done it since April:

Marlins 2, Cubs 0: Giancarlo Stanton won’t get a chance to defend his Home Run Derby title for a few more weeks, but he got plenty of practice against the Cubs this weekend. He fueled the Marlins’ shutout with a 458-foot blast, putting the club on the board in the third inning and lending some support to Jose Urena‘s fifth win of the season.

Rays 15, Orioles 5: According to ESPN Stats and Info, the Orioles have allowed a cumulative 160 runs over their last 20 games. They took their sixth double-digit defeat in that span on Friday, handing the Rays a 10-run lead after Tampa Bay engineered three separate innings of 4+ runs. To say that Baltimore skipper Buck Showalter is concerned about his rotation is an understatement. Via MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli:

Got to pitch better. It is what it is. The help’s going to come from within,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. “We got to get back in step and create some rhythm for the offense, and even the defense gets out of step when the game’s being played so choppy and not very crisp. I really don’t like hanging it around one phase of it, but it starts if we could just string some good starts together. You can get into some type of rhythm.

Twins 5, Indians 0: The Twins entered a pivotal series this weekend as they attempt to unseat the Indians from first place, and Friday’s 5-0 shutout saw them pull within two games of the division lead. Adalberto Mejia strung five scoreless innings together, flummoxing the Indians at the plate with two hits, five walks and four strikeouts en route to his second win of the year. Not only was it the first win Mejia recorded since the Twins’ doubleheader last month, but it was the first time the southpaw managed to log more than 100 pitches in any major league start to date.

Braves 5, Brewers 4: Just call Dansby Swanson the next time you need a save. The Braves’ shortstop was instrumental in the team’s nail-biting finish on Friday evening, executing a run-saving fielder’s choice to catch Eric Thames off the third base bag in the ninth inning and helping right-hander Arodys Vizcaino secure his first save of the year with a diving stop to end the game.

Athletics 3, White Sox 0: The A’s finally brought their four-game skid to a halt, coasting to their second shutout of the season on five solid innings from right-hander Jharel Cotton. Cotton exited in the sixth inning with a blister on his pitching hand, but the bullpen kept things rolling against the White Sox with four scoreless frames. Khris Davis and Matt Joyce took care of things at the plate, muscling two home runs to give the A’s the edge they needed to lock down their 32nd win of the year.

Pirates 4, Cardinals 3: Jameson Taillon and Adam Wainwright were locked into a pitcher’s duel during the Cardinals’ home opener, holding their respective opponents to just two runs apiece over the first four innings. After Taillon’s exit in the sixth inning, the Cardinals jumped on reliever Daniel Hudson with a tie-breaking home run from Paul DeJong, but couldn’t quite close the door after the Pirates rebounded with a David Freese RBI single in the eighth inning. John Jaso smacked a game-winning home run in the ninth, securing the win and breaking the Bucs’ seven-game losing streak at Busch Stadium to boot.

Royals 5, Blue Jays 4: The Blue Jays appeared to be on the verge of a much-needed win on Friday, but some late-game struggles from the bullpen quickly unraveled eight innings of hard work. With two outs in the ninth inning, Alcides Escobar cut the Jays’ lead in half with an RBI single, followed by another from Alex Gordon and a game-winning two-run double off the bat of Whit Merrifield — the first walk-off of his major league career.

Phillies 6, Diamondbacks 1: Don’t look now, but the Phillies are… well, still in the last place. A 6-1 win is still worth celebrating, however, as they turned in an impressive four-run spread in the ninth inning to hand Mark Leiter his first win of the year. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, now sit 2.5 games behind the division-leading Dodgers after squandering another quality start from left-hander Patrick Corbin.

Padres 1, Tigers 0: The Padres have won all but one home opener this season, and Friday’s 1-0 shutout was no exception. They continued their dominant streak with their fourth shutout of the year, backed by six innings of two-hit ball from right-hander Luis Perdomo. Despite Perdomo’s season-high five walks, not a single runner was able to advance past second base, gifting the Padres with a win after Austin Hedges doubled home the winning run in the second inning.

Mariners 13, Astros 3: Felix Hernandez may not look like the King the Mariners crowned back in 2010, but he certainly got the royal treatment upon his return from the disabled list on Friday night. The offense put up a sparkling 13 runs behind Hernandez’s six-inning, six-strikeout effort, topped by a trifecta of home runs from Mike Zunino, Ben Gamel and Kyle Seager. The double-digit finish extended the Mariners’ win streak to six games, giving Seattle hope that they’ll stick above .500 for more than a couple of days.

Dodgers 6, Rockies 1: The Dodgers steamrolled the Rockies to their eighth consecutive win on Friday, extending Alex Wood‘s record to 8-0 with 6 1/3 innings of a three-hitter. The Rockies struck early on an RBI double from Tom Murphy in the second, but found themselves unable to move a runner past first base in any subsequent inning. With the win, the Dodgers are now 14-1 in their last 15 contests, good for the best record in the majors, though they’ll need more than a couple of wins to completely shake the Rockies and Diamondbacks from contention.

Mets 11, Giants 4: The Giants took one step forward and two steps back this week, earning their 10th loss in 11 games after the Mets turned out an 11-run win on Friday. Ty Blach imploded after three innings with a career-high 11 hits and seven runs and failed to strike out a single batter. Club manager Bruce Bochy didn’t let his players off the hook, either, and told reporters that he wouldn’t excuse the team’s poor performance despite their early-morning arrival from Atlanta prior to the game. “Sure, we landed early in the morning, but it’s not the first time this has happened,” Bochy said. “You deal with it.”

Alex Dickerson to miss 2017 season after undergoing back surgery

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Padres’ outfielder Alex Dickerson won’t see PETCO Park anytime soon — at least, not as its starting left fielder. The 27-year-old was diagnosed with a bulging disc in his lower back prior to the start of the 2017 season, and hasn’t made any kind of substantial progress in the months since. According to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, he suffered a setback in his recovery process last week and is set to undergo a season-ending discectomy next Wednesday.

Over 285 plate appearances, Dickerson batted .257/.333/.455 with 10 home runs and a .788 OPS for the Padres in 2016. He missed several days with a right hip contusion last July, but hasn’t experienced any substantial health problems since undergoing surgery in 2014 to repair a torn ligament in his left ankle.

The expected recovery period for lower back surgery is 3-4 months, according to Lin, which puts Dickerson’s estimated return just a few days before the end of the regular season. The Padres aren’t scraping the bottom of the NL West, but their 29-44 record doesn’t bode well for a postseason run this year. Assuming Dickerson rehabs his back in a timely manner, he should be in fine form to enter the competition for left field next spring.