Mauer contract a big risk the Twins had to take

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Joe Mauer’s new eight-year extension is worth $100 million more than any other contract the Twins have ever handed out and committing to pay a catcher $23 million per year through his age-35 season in 2018 represents a massive amount of risk.
With that said, it was a no-brainer.
First and foremost, if reasonably healthy Mauer should be worth the $23 million per season for most of the deal. Through his first five full seasons in the majors Mauer was worth an average of $22 million per year according to Fan Graphs’ player valuation system, including $26 million in 2008 and $36.6 million while winning the AL MVP in 2009.
As a catcher with previous knee and back injuries Mauer is at a far higher risk to decline or age poorly than most players, but it’s tough to worry too much about how the deal might look come 2017 or 2018 when the Twins’ new ballpark is opening next month. After all, Target Field was built in large part to help the Twins increase their revenue and payroll enough to support retaining star players as they neared free agency.
As a 27-year-old native Minnesotan and former No. 1 overall pick coming off an MVP season Mauer fits the “star” bill about as well as humanly possible, so if ever the Twins were going to over-commit this would be the time. Ultimately even with Target Field they’re likely to remain in the middle of the payroll pack, so $184 million is a scary number, but it’s certainly a fair deal relative to the eight-year, $180 million contract Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees last offseason.
Plus, it would have been sad if the people of Minnesota burned down Target Field after just one season.

Magic Johnson says the Dodgers will win the World Series

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Baseball, as we so often note around here, is unpredictable. Especially when it comes to the playoffs. You can be the best team in the land for six months but a few bad days can end your season once October hits.

In 2001 the Seattle Mariners won 116 games in the regular season but lost the ALCS to the Yankees, four games to one. In 1906 the Cubs won 116 games in a 152-game season and lost the World Series. In 1954 the Indians won 111 games in a 154-game season and lost the World Series. In 1931 the Philadelphia A’s won 107 games and lost the World Series.

More recently, with the advent of expanded playoffs, the chances for the team with the best record to win the World Series have been pretty dang terrible. Since the beginning of the wild card era, only five times has the team with the game’s best record gone on to win the World Series: The 1998 and 2009 Yankees, the 2007 and 2013 Red Sox and the 2016 Cubs. That’s it.

At the moment, the Los Angeles Dodgers have baseball’s best record. They’re 71-31 and sit 12 games up in their division. Their playoff chances are almost 100%. The above examples notwithstanding, if you had to make a prediction as to who might win the World Series, it would not be unreasonable to pick the Dodgers. Sure, you’d want to make sure they got Clayton Kershaw back by early September or thereabouts to make it a safer prediction, but it’d be a totally defensible pick. Maybe even the one most people make.

But it’d be the utmost in magical thinking to presume that one could make such a prediction with any degree of certainty, right? The Los Angeles Times, however, passes along some Magical thinking:

Magic Johnson called his shot Thursday night, and he wasn’t shy about it. The Dodgers’ co-owner did not hesitate when he predicted how the team would finish this year.

“The Dodgers are going to win the World Series this year,” Johnson said. “This is our year.”

The headline calls it a “guarantee.” I don’t know if I’d call it that — I think it’s more of a confident prediction — but it is a bold statement whatever you call it.

If I had to pick one team at the moment — and we could assume a healthy Clayton Kershaw — I suppose I would make them my World Series favorites too. And, yes, if I had an ownership interest in the Dodgers, I’d probably say what Johnson said.

But given the example of history, I think “field” would be a much safer bet.

Mariners trade Steve Cishek to the Rays for swingman Erasmo Ramirez.

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The Tampa Bay Rays have acquired reliever Steve Cishek from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for reliever Erasmo Ramirez.

Cishek had appeared in 23 games this season for Seattle after recovering from major offseason hip surgery. He’s 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, with a 15/7 K/BB ratio in 20 innings. He’s a setup man right now, but he has experience as a closer, saving 25 games for Seattle last year and as many as 39 back when he pitched for the Marlins in 2014.

Ramirez has appeared in 26 games for the Rays and has started eight games. He’s 4-3 with a 4.80 ERA and a 55/16 K/BB ratio in 69.1 innings. This will be his second stint with the Mariners, having played for them from 2012-14.

Sort of a surprising deal given that both Tampa Bay and Seattle are competing for a wild card spot, but needs are needs.