UPDATE: Twins sign Denard Span to five-year contract

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Denard Span.jpgUpdate: Here’s the details: Span will make $750,000 in 2010, $1 million
in 2011, $3 million in 2012, $4.75 million in 2013 and $6.5 million in 2014. The contract includes a $9 million option for 2015 with a $500,000 buyout.

12:08 pm: Here it is. Christensen tweets that Span will earn $16.5 million over the five years while the Twins hold a $9 million option for 2015. Pretty nice deal for both sides.

11:38 am: Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that the Twins and outfielder Denard Span have agreed to a five-year contract. Terms aren’t yet available, but the new contract will cover the rest of Span’s team-controlled seasons.

Span, who turned 26 in February, batted .311/.392/.415 with eight homers, 10 triples, 68 RBI and 23 stolen bases last season and has quickly developed — with the help of LASIK surgery — into one of the game’s best leadoff hitters. The club felt comfortable enough with him as their everyday center fielder that they parted ways with Carlos Gomez to acquire shortstop J.J. Hardy this winter. While Span is more-developed with the bat, UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) suggests that he can’t hold a candle to him defensively.

Looking at this from the Twins’ perspective, it’s nice to know Span is safely secured for the next five seasons, but I’d hope the contract contains some sort of team option for his first year of free agency or something.

A scout thinks the Astros strike out too much. The Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball.

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Great moments in scouting. MLB.com’s Richard Justice spoke to an unnamed scout about the Astros, currently holding the American League’s best record at 76-47. The scout said that the Astros strike out too much and it will catch up with them. Justice pointed out that the Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball. The scout responded, “I don’t believe that.”

Justice, of course, is correct. The average major league team has struck out 1,006 times entering Sunday’s action. The Astros have by far the lowest total at 827, followed by the Indians at 881 and the Pirates at 882.

This scout doesn’t represent all scouts, but this is one of the major problems that advocates of statistics were trying to highlight before Sabermetrics became popular a decade ago. It’s a pattern. Person believes thing. Person either cherry-picks evidence to defend belief or is shown evidence that belief is not factually true and ignores it. Person refuses to change belief, using one of many excuses.

The other problem this highlights is the fallacy of “the eye test,” which is shorthand for treating a scout’s observations as sacrosanct due to his or her experience and knowledge of the game. In this case, the scout ignored easily accessed information, went with his gut, and turned out to be completely wrong. Furthermore, if “the eye test” were legit, the scout would’ve known that, for example, Yulieski Gurriel and Jose Altuve hardly ever strike out (11.1 and 12.4 percent strikeout rates, respectively). In fact, no one on the Astros’ roster (min. 230 PA) has a strikeout rate above 21 percent; the league average is 21.5 percent.

This isn’t to impugn the practice of scouting as a whole. There are a lot of things scouts can tell you about a player that data cannot and that has value. But for easily-researched claims like “the Astros strike out too much,” there’s no reason to trust a scout over the stats.

Mets acquire Jacob Rhame from Dodgers

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The Mets acquired right-handed reliever Jacob Rhame from the Dodgers, the team announced on Sunday. Rhame is the player to be named later in the trade that sent outfielder Curtis Granderson to Los Angeles on Friday night. He’s expected to report to the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.

Rhame, 24, pitched through his second Triple-A campaign with the Oklahoma City Dodgers in 2017, collecting two saves in 41 appearances and logging a 4.31 ERA, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.3 SO/9 through 48 innings. While his ERA saw a sharp spike from its modest 3.29 mark in 2016 (perhaps thanks in part to a midseason DL stint due to an undisclosed injury), he’s controlling the ball better than he has in several years and has drawn some attention with a fastball that occasionally touches 98 MPH on the radar gun.

The Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been at its finest over the last few weeks, ranking 16th among its major league competitors with a collective 4.50 ERA and 2.4 fWAR, but likely isn’t looking to add an extreme fly ball pitcher to its staff just yet. Until he gets his big league break, Rhame will beef up Triple-A Vegas’ relief corps alongside fellow right-handers Yaisel Sierra, Joe Broussard and Josh Ravin.