Brandon Webb may start the season on the DL

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This is why you shouldn’t pay much attention to those February “Player X is throwing free and easy” articles:

The Diamondbacks acknowledged on Friday morning that Brandon Webb might not be ready to start the season on time and could begin the year on the disabled list.
“It’s a long season,” General Manager Josh Byrnes
said. “If we get 30 starts from him, great. If we get 20, that’s great.
We just need to get it right.”
Asked if that means Webb might start on the DL,
Byrnes called it a possibility, the first time anyone in the
organization has admitted that Webb’s slow pace might leave him behind
schedule.

For what it’s worth, Webb disagrees that he’ll need to start on the DL. No link for that, but that’s what folks are tweeting.

Hard to say what will happen here, but for those of you who skew pessimistic and want to skip ahead, the pattern usually goes like this:

1. Player X, recovering from surgery Y, is looking forward to showing everyone he can still get the job done (Dec-Jan);

2. Player X is throwing free and easy, eyes big year (Feb);

3. Player X has setback; feels fine; acknowledges there will be bumps in the road coming back (early March);

4. Player X may start the season on the DL; GM says it’s OK, season is long (next day);

5. Player X won’t break camp with the team; staying in Arizona/Florida for extended spring training (late March);

6. Player X flying to City Z for further tests (June);

7. Player X holding private workouts for suitors willing to take a chance (January).

Hope that’s not Webb’s path, of course, but it’s not like such a thing would be unprecedented.

The Yankees attendance and revenue is down, but it makes sense

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There’s a long article in the New York Times today noting that the Yankees attendance is down and that, based on financial figures released as part of their stadium bond disclosures, ticket and suite revenues through last season have fallen by $166 million since the end of 2009.

There is a lot of talk in the article about the exciting young team the Yankees have put together and how much they’ve won so far in the early going. And there is a lot of talk about marketing and demographics — Hal Steinbrenner talks about baseball’s “millennial problem” — but the story of the Yankees’ box office issues, such as they are, is pretty straightforward.

All teams suffer attendance and revenue decline when they play poorly. While the Yankees have not been bad for a long, long time, that’s a somewhat relative thing. They Yankees have sold themselves and sold their fans on the idea that nothing short of a championship is acceptable, so missing the playoffs for three of the past four years is bad for them. Fans don’t want to go see a bad team, be it Yankees fans, Rays fans, Royals fans or whoever.

Despite the recent lack of success, the Yankees have still, perversely, continued to price their tickets, concessions, parking and everything else as though they’re the only game in town. When demand falls and prices remain super high, fewer people are buying your product. Even if you’re the New York Yankees.

The Yankees are good this year. What’s more, they’re good in that exciting way that only young promising players bursting out onto the scene can deliver. It’s a wonderful thing for marketing and stuff, but even under the best of circumstances, ticket sales tend to lag on field success, often by as much as a year. Go back and look at World Series winning teams — especially the surprise winners — and you’ll see that it’s the year after on-field success when the real attendance bumps happen. I expect, if the Yankees continue to play well, their gate will get really nice by the end of the summer, but I suspect we’ll also see a more dramatic bump next year.

Taken all together, this is a dog-bites-man story. The Yankees are not some transcendent institution, immune from market forces. They’re just one of 30 Major League Baseball teams competing against other entertainments for a finite amount of the public’s money and attention. Nothin’ to see here.

David Price had a rocky rehab start last night

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Red Sox starter David Price has been rehabbing a left elbow injury since early March. Last night he made his latest rehab outing for Triple-A Pawtucket. It didn’t go well.

Price allowed six runs — three earned — on seven hits in three and two-thirds innings, requiring 89 pitches to do it. His velocity was good, but otherwise it was a night to forget. This was supposed to be Price’s last rehab start before returning to the Sox’ big league rotation, but one wonders if he’s ready for it.

Price didn’t talk to the media after the game, but Pawtucket’s manager said he was “upbeat” and “felt good.” For his part, John Farrell, upon hearing about the outing, said this:

“There’s no announcement at this point. We’ve got to sit with him and talk about what’s best for him, best for us as we move forward.”

The Sox could really use Price back in the rotation given their injury problems, but rushing him back if he’s not ready is certainly not ideal.

Stay tuned.