Dusty Baker, pitch counts and pitcher injuries

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Jeff Fletcher at AOL takes a closer look at the conventional wisdom that Dusty Baker is the angel of death when it comes to young starting pitchers:

There is no way to prove conclusively why any pitcher gets injured, so
the claims of pitcher abuse by Baker will forever be just theories. It
is indisputable, though, that Baker has had his starting pitchers
consistently throw more pitches than the norm.

Pitchers on Baker’s teams have thrown more pitches per start than the
National League average for pitchers on other teams in 14 of his 16
seasons. The difference is just about five pitches per game over his
career, but he has had two years in which his pitchers threw at least
10 more pitches, on average, than the rest of the league. One of those
was 2003.

Fletcher is pretty thorough in his reporting here, providing all of the pro-Dusty and con-Dusty I can recall hearing over the past decade or so.  It’s definitely worth a click-though and a full read.

My view: Dusty catches a more flak than he probably deserves for the specific injuries that have occurred on his watch. Some have suggested that Mark Prior’s allegedly perfect mechanics were actually far from it and inevitably led to his injuries. As Fletcher notes, Kerry Wood had an injury history before Baker drove him hard, and simply watching the torque he put on the ball back in the day was enough to make your arm hurt.  Fletcher notes other examples of pitchers who suffered injures under Baker that likely had little to do with their pitch counts.

That said, the fact is that we simply don’t know enough about the link between pitch counts and injuries to where Dusty can be excused for the consistently and significantly higher pitch counts his pitchers are forced to endure. I can’t say that Dusty Baker killed Mark Prior’s career, but I can’t say he didn’t either, and there’s no evidence that Baker every gave much thought to the matter at the time.

If I’m running a team and I’m investing tens of millions of dollars in precious pitchers, that’s simply unacceptable to me. 

The Rockies are promoting outfield prospect David Dahl

SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 10:  David Dahl of the U.S. Team looks on prior to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at PETCO Park on July 10, 2016 in San Diego, California.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
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In a wave of prospect advancement news on Sunday, the Rockies have joined the fray. The Astros are calling up Alex Bregman. The Diamondbacks are calling up Braden Shipley. And the Rockies will call up outfield prospect David Dahl on Monday, Nick Groke of The Denver Post reports. The Rockies are expected to designate outfielder Brandon Barnes for assignment to create roster space.

Dahl, 22, was selected by the Rockies in the first round — 10th overall — in the 2012 draft. He started the season at Double-A, batting .278/.367/.500 with 13 home runs, 45 RBI, 53 runs scored, and 16 stolen bases in 322 plate appearances. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque earlier this month. In 16 games there, Dahl has hit an outstanding .484/.529/.887 with five homers, 16 RBI, and 17 runs scored in 68 plate appearances.

Dahl is considered the Rockies’ second-best prospect and #40 overall in baseball according to MLB Pipeline. He got some camera time during the 2016 Futures Game two weeks ago, going 0-for-2.

David Robertson and adventures with the win statistic

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 26:  David Robertson #30 of the Chicago White Sox pitches in the 9th inning for a save against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S. Cellular Field on June 26, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The White Sox defeated the Blue Jays 5-2.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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David Robertson got the win in both White Sox victories today, a double-header versus the Tigers. In the first game, he got the final out of the eighth inning and pitched a scoreless ninth before the White Sox walked off on an Adam Eaton RBI single.

It was the second game that made things interesting. Robertson took the mound at the start of the ninth inning staked to a 4-1 lead. He’d fork up a leadoff home run to Nick Castellanos. Then, after getting two outs, served up another solo shot to Tyler Collins followed by a game-tying Jarrod Saltalamacchia dinger. Robertson would get out of the inning without any further damage.

In the bottom of the ninth, Melky Cabrera sent the White Sox home winners again, drilling a walk-off RBI single. That gave Robertson the win, his second of the afternoon. As Baseball Tonight notes on Twitter, Robertson is the first player in the last 100 years to give up three home runs in an inning or fewer and still wind up with the victory.

Robertson has had a rough go of it since the All-Star break. He yielded four runs in his first appearance back on July 18. On the season, he’s saved 23 games in 27 appearances with a 4.46 ERA and a 50/21 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings.