Apparently baseball players throw too many fastballs. It will take smarter people than I am to figure out if this Means Something or it’s merely interesting. It’s been a long day, however, and at this point interesting is enough for me:
In the case of baseball, we observe every pitch thrown in the major
leagues over the period 2002-2006 – a total of more than 3 million
pitches. For football, we observe every play in the National Football League for the years 2001-2005 – over 125,000 plays . . . The results obtained from analyzing the football and baseball data are
quite similar. In both cases, we find clear deviations from minimax
play, as evidenced by a failure to equalize expected payoffs across
different actions played as part of mixed strategies, and with respect
to negative serial correlation in actions . . . In baseball, pitchers appear to throw too many fastballs,
i.e., batters systematically have better outcomes when thrown fastballs
versus any other type of pitch.
Game theory, schmame theory. Maybe ballplayers just want to give him the heat and announce their presence with authority. Didja ever think of that? And maybe those suckers simply teed off on ’em like they knew they were gonna throw a fastball.
Oh . . .
(thanks to Pete Toms for the link)
Brett Gardner hit a walkoff homer last night, giving the Yankees a dramatic 11-inning win. A grand celebration ensued. And then a trip to the dentist presumably ensured for Aaron Judge.
Seems that Judge broke a tooth during the scrum, as Gardner’s helmet — which was bouncing around, not on Gardner’s head — bounced up and smacked Judge in the mouth. Judge quickly went to the clubhouse and wasn’t available for comment afterward. If he was, he likely would’ve said “Thith wath a great win. Gardner juth looked for hith pitch and put a good thwing on it.”
Judge is expected to make the start tonight for the Yankees.
David Price is reported to have a “barking” elbow and it is expected that the Red Sox will scratch him from tonight’s start against the Royals in Boston. Dan Shaughnessy reports that the elbow soreness is similar to what he was feeling in the spring and that the Red Sox may place him on the disabled list. UPDATE: Buster Olney reports that the Red Sox gave Price an MRI yesterday.
Price was knocked around for six runs — five earned — in five innings against the Angels in his last start. He was also the subject of controversy soon after that after Shaughnessy reported the details of his run-in with Dennis Eckersley on the Sox team plane in June. That incident and his elbow are obviously separate things, but that’s not stopping the talk radio from people using the report of Price’s elbow to question is fortitude and stuff. Which is dumb, even if it is predictable. If you want to question Price’s character, fine, but to suggest that it’s related to his health is a silly way to go about it.
Price is 5-3 with a 3.82 ERA and a 63/22 K/BB ratio in 66 innings across 11 starts this year. The Red Sox are a half game up on the Yankees in the AL East.