Apparently baseball players throw too many fastballs. It will take smarter people than I am to figure out if this Means Something or it’s merely interesting. It’s been a long day, however, and at this point interesting is enough for me:
In the case of baseball, we observe every pitch thrown in the major
leagues over the period 2002-2006 – a total of more than 3 million
pitches. For football, we observe every play in the National Football League for the years 2001-2005 – over 125,000 plays . . . The results obtained from analyzing the football and baseball data are
quite similar. In both cases, we find clear deviations from minimax
play, as evidenced by a failure to equalize expected payoffs across
different actions played as part of mixed strategies, and with respect
to negative serial correlation in actions . . . In baseball, pitchers appear to throw too many fastballs,
i.e., batters systematically have better outcomes when thrown fastballs
versus any other type of pitch.
Game theory, schmame theory. Maybe ballplayers just want to give him the heat and announce their presence with authority. Didja ever think of that? And maybe those suckers simply teed off on ’em like they knew they were gonna throw a fastball.
Oh . . .
(thanks to Pete Toms for the link)
Tim Tebow isn’t letting go of his major league dreams just yet. The former NFL quarterback is slated to appear with the Mets during spring training this year, extending what initially looked like an ill-fated career choice for at least one more season. Per the club’s official announcement on Friday, he’ll join a group of spring training invitees that includes top-30 prospects like Peter Alonso, P.J. Conlon, Patrick Mazeika and David Thompson.
Tebow, 30, hasn’t taken to professional baseball as gracefully as expected. He batted a cumulative .226/.309/.347 with eight home runs and a .656 OPS in 486 plate appearances for Single-A Columbia and High-A St. Lucie in 2017. While that wasn’t enough to compel the Mets to give the aging outfielder a big league tryout, there’s no denying that Tebow brought substantial benefit to their minor league affiliates — in the form of increased attendance figures and ticket sales, that is.
Even after the Mets were booted from the NL East race last September, they resisted the idea of promoting Tebow for a late-season attendance boost of their own. That’s not to say they’re planning on taking the same approach in 2018; Tebow will undoubtedly get his cup of coffee in the majors at some point, but for now, a Grapefruit League tryout is likely as close as he’ll ever get to playing with the team’s big league roster on an everyday basis.