Glen Perkins doesn't sound long for Minnesota

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Glen Perkins filed a grievance against the Twins when they optioned him to Triple-A rather than keep him on the major-league disabled list with a shoulder injury. The two sides have since settled the case, but the move left Perkins just short of the service time needed for arbitration eligibility, costing him about $500,000 and causing a whole bunch of tension.
Injuries and inconsistent performances along with the grievance and Minnesota’s glut of young fifth-starter candidates made Perkins a prime offseason trade candidate, and the Twins reportedly offered him to the Padres for Kevin Kouzmanoff at the winter meetings.
For now at least Perkins remains Twins property, but the former first-round pick and native Minnesotan certainly sounds like a man who expects to be traded:

I guess I really found out the hard way that it’s a business. I spent my life cheering for that team. I got drafted by them and got to the majors quick, and two weeks later we’re in the playoffs. I had a really good year in ’08, and everything was rosy. You find out the hard way that it doesn’t really matter.



I think I’m more prepared for this year than I ever have been. I feel like I’m going into an uphill battle [for a roster spot], but I’m fine. My arm’s healthy, and I feel like I’m a major league pitcher. I’m sure if [the Twins] don’t think that, then someone else does.

Those quotes come via an excellent article by Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, which includes all kinds of other intriguing details about Perkins’ situation. I’d definitely have bet on a Perkins trade at the beginning of the offseason and probably still would, but if the Twins can’t find an acceptable deal for him they could delay a decision on Perkins while lessening the rotation glut by simply optioning him back to Triple-A again. Imagine his quotes if that happens …

A scout thinks the Astros strike out too much. The Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball.

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Great moments in scouting. MLB.com’s Richard Justice spoke to an unnamed scout about the Astros, currently holding the American League’s best record at 76-47. The scout said that the Astros strike out too much and it will catch up with them. Justice pointed out that the Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball. The scout responded, “I don’t believe that.”

Justice, of course, is correct. The average major league team has struck out 1,006 times entering Sunday’s action. The Astros have by far the lowest total at 827, followed by the Indians at 881 and the Pirates at 882.

This scout doesn’t represent all scouts, but this is one of the major problems that advocates of statistics were trying to highlight before Sabermetrics became popular a decade ago. It’s a pattern. Person believes thing. Person either cherry-picks evidence to defend belief or is shown evidence that belief is not factually true and ignores it. Person refuses to change belief, using one of many excuses.

The other problem this highlights is the fallacy of “the eye test,” which is shorthand for treating a scout’s observations as sacrosanct due to his or her experience and knowledge of the game. In this case, the scout ignored easily accessed information, went with his gut, and turned out to be completely wrong. Furthermore, if “the eye test” were legit, the scout would’ve known that, for example, Yulieski Gurriel and Jose Altuve hardly ever strike out (11.1 and 12.4 percent strikeout rates, respectively). In fact, no one on the Astros’ roster (min. 230 PA) has a strikeout rate above 21 percent; the league average is 21.5 percent.

This isn’t to impugn the practice of scouting as a whole. There are a lot of things scouts can tell you about a player that data cannot and that has value. But for easily-researched claims like “the Astros strike out too much,” there’s no reason to trust a scout over the stats.

Mets acquire Jacob Rhame from Dodgers

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The Mets acquired right-handed reliever Jacob Rhame from the Dodgers, the team announced on Sunday. Rhame is the player to be named later in the trade that sent outfielder Curtis Granderson to Los Angeles on Friday night. He’s expected to report to the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.

Rhame, 24, pitched through his second Triple-A campaign with the Oklahoma City Dodgers in 2017, collecting two saves in 41 appearances and logging a 4.31 ERA, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.3 SO/9 through 48 innings. While his ERA saw a sharp spike from its modest 3.29 mark in 2016 (perhaps thanks in part to a midseason DL stint due to an undisclosed injury), he’s controlling the ball better than he has in several years and has drawn some attention with a fastball that occasionally touches 98 MPH on the radar gun.

The Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been at its finest over the last few weeks, ranking 16th among its major league competitors with a collective 4.50 ERA and 2.4 fWAR, but likely isn’t looking to add an extreme fly ball pitcher to its staff just yet. Until he gets his big league break, Rhame will beef up Triple-A Vegas’ relief corps alongside fellow right-handers Yaisel Sierra, Joe Broussard and Josh Ravin.