Chapman is a good gamble for the Reds

Leave a comment

Thumbnail image for aroldis chapman cuba.jpgJon Heyman tweets his initial reaction to the Cincinnati Reds’ unexpected signing of Aroldis Chapman:


I think the Reds are cracked giving Aroldis Chapman $30 mil. There, I said it.

I disagree. In fact, I think that reaction — and many others like it you’ll see in the next 24 hours — is borne more of shock that a small revenue team like the Reds did the deal instead of one of the usual big name free agent suspects. I’m kind of shocked myself, but just because this is unexpected doesn’t mean it’s “cracked.” Remember, Heyman is the same writer who had no problem throwing around Stephen Strasburg’s alleged $50 million demand last summer. He never said that amount was “cracked.”

Yes, the number — $30 million — seems high, but I have a hard time seeing as a bad move.  It’s six years, with the money stretched out over an even longer period than that according to John Fay at the Cincy Enquirer. He’s young and electric. If he does half of what some people seem to think he can do, he’ll be a steal at that price. Even if he’s a spectacular bust he’ll have cost the Reds $16 million less than Francisco Cordero, $6.5 million less than Aaron Harang and only a tad more than Brandon Phillips. Ed Wade has spent $25 million on Brandon Lyon, Brett Myers and Pedro Feliz this winter. How is this so bad?

I think there are two basic things to keep in mind with this deal: (1) Compared to most other deals in even today’s relatively conservative free agent market, this one has way more upside and a more or less survivable downside; and (2) this transaction means way more to the Reds and their fans than, say, the Angels or Red Sox or even the Blue Jays signing Chapman would. Cincinnati is a great baseball town that risks losing its religion if the team doesn’t do something to give the fans hope, and a potential 2011 rotation of Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Baily and Aroldis Chapman gives fans a lot of reason to hope.

Good move by the Reds. 

Report: Mariners have interest in Reds’ Jay Bruce

ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 14:  Jay Bruce #32 of the Cincinnati Reds waits to bat prior to hitting a three-run homer in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field on June 14, 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
3 Comments

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Mariners are among the teams that have contacted the Reds about outfielder Jay Bruce. The Mariners enter play Wednesday 51-48, six games out of first place in the AL West and 4.5 games out of the second AL Wild Card slot. Adding an impact bat like Bruce could help in their effort to reach the postseason.

Norichika Aoki and Seth Smith have handled the bulk of the playing time in left field. While Smith has hit well, Aoki has not. Bruce came into Wednesday’s game against the Giants batting .271/.324/.567 with 24 home runs and a league-best 78 RBI.

Bruce can become a free agent after the season if his controlling team declines his $13 million club option for the 2017 season by paying him a $1 million buyout. If he’s traded mid-season, his new team won’t be able to make him a qualifying offer, so the club option may be more enticing than it looks at first glance.

The Padres have homered in 25 consecutive games, tying an NL record

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 16:  Adam Rosales #9 of the San Diego Padres hits an RBI single during the tenth inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants at PETCO Park on July 16, 2016 in San Diego, California.   (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images
8 Comments

A third-inning two-run home run by Adam Rosales off of R.A. Dickey put the Padres up 2-0, but it also helped the Padres tie a National League record. The Padres have homered in 25 consecutive games, matching the 1998 Braves, the 1994 Tigers, and the 1941 Yankees. The major league record is 27, set by the 2002 Rangers.

The Padres hit three in total on Wednesday in an 8-4 victory against the Blue Jays. One of those dingers was an eighth-inning solo shot by rookie Alex Dickerson, who has now homered in four consecutive games himself. The one he hit on Monday is worth watching, as it got into the upper deck at the Rogers Centre.

As the Padres recently traded Melvin Upton, Jr. to the Jays, Dickerson is likely going to see regular playing time. That’s especially true if he keeps hitting like this.