It’s behind the Insider wall, but Buster Olney passes along some analysis from the ESPN stats department — the members of whom I picture working in some shabby off-site building like the Major Crimes detail on “The Wire” — who project Jason Bay to hit 30 homers overall next year, 10 at home, 20 on the road. I’m neither capable nor inclined to seriously question or back up that analysis, but I could see it. He hit 15 at home last year and 21 on the road. I’m guessing the Monster turned some would-be homers into doubles, but that Citi Field will turn them into outs.
Happy with that Mets fans?
If not, at least be happy with something else Buster writes up: the history of Mets big-money free agent signings that included Bobby Bonilla, Cliff Floyd, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez and a shoutout to Vince Coleman. Outside of Carlos Beltran there’s a lot of ugliness in the Mets’ free agent history, so things could definitely be worse.
Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal is done for the season as the Cardinals have transferred him from the 10-day to the 60-day disabled list.
He had originally been placed on the 10-Day DL last Thursday with “elbow irritation” and “arm tightness” but it’s obviously more than a mere irritation. He has seen two specialists in the past week and, while the team has not given word as to his official diagnosis, both specialists are Tommy John guys, which suggests that major elbow surgery is in the offing for Rosenthal.
Rosenthal finishes the year at 3-4 with a 3.40 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 76/20 in 47.2 innings with 11 saves. He had lost the closer’s job heading into the year but had regained it before going down. Going forward, some combination of Seung Hwan Oh, Tyler Lyons, and John Brebbia will fill cover the end of games as the Cardinals try to climb back into the playoff picture.
Steven Matz underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow today. The procedure was to reposition a compressed nerve in his elbow.
Matz, 26, has struggled over 13 starts, posting a 6.08 ERA with a 48/19 K/BB ratio in 66.2 innings. That line was, obviously, a function of the bum nerve in the bum elbow. Trouble aside, Matz is expected to be ready for Opening Day in 2018.