With Bay signing, Mets put their eggs into one basket, again

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bay red sox swinging.jpgIf there was ever a winter for the Mets to forgo their obsession with stars and improve their depth instead, this was the one. Injuries practically everywhere on the diamond devastated the team in 2009, forcing the team to turn to such non-entities as Angel Berroa, Lance Broadway and Wilson Valdez. It’s certainly true that no team could have survived losing as much of its top players as the Mets did last season, but there was also no reason for a club with a $150 million payroll to have to turn to mediocre Triple-A veterans so early and often.
GM Omar Minaya, though, showed no signs of learning his lesson. Instead of concentrating on the second- and third-tier free agents that were only going to keep getting cheaper as the winter dragged on, he spent $66 million to bring in Jason Bay on Tuesday. The deal could be worth more than $80 million if the option for the fifth year vests.
That is the Mets for you. The club now has five players making at least $12 million per season: Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, Bay, Francisco Rodriguez and Oliver Perez. David Wright and Jose Reyes aren’t quite yet there, but they’ll combine to make $19 million next year and $25 million in 2011 before Reyes becomes a free agent.
Will it buy anything more than another fourth-place finish? The team. at present, looks like this:
SS – Jose Reyes – $9 million
2B – Luis Castillo – $6.25 million
CF – Carlos Beltran – $20 million
LF – Jason Bay – $16 million (approx.)
3B – David Wright – $10 million
1B – Daniel Murphy – $450,000
RF – Jeff Francoeur – $4.5 million (approx.)
C – Free agent
OF – Angel Pagan – $1.1 million (approx.)
INF – Alex Cora – $2 million
C – Henry Blanco – $750,000
C/INF – Chris Coste – $650,000
INF – Anderson Hernandez – $450,000
Total: $71.15 million
SP – Johan Santana – $21 million
SP – John Maine – $3.3 million (approx.)
SP – Oliver Perez – $12 million
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $500,000
SP – Jon Niese – $400,000
RP – Francisco Rodriguez – $12 million
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $2.1 million (approx.)
RP – Bobby Parnell – $420,000 (approx.)
RP – Kelvim Escobar – $1.25 million
RP – Ryota Igarashi – $1.25 million
RP – Sean Green – $750,000 (approx.)
RP – Brian Stokes – $420,000 (approx.)
Total: $55.39 million
That’s $126.5 million spent on a team that’s still short a starting pitcher and a catcher. Plus, an upgrade at first base would be nice. The defense takes a hit with Bay replacing Pagan in left field, and it doesn’t look like it will get any better at second base, since Minaya has been unable to find a taker for Castillo.
Fourth place seems just about right at the moment. There simply aren’t any sure things in the rotation with Santana coming off elbow surgery, and while the top of the lineup looks awfully strong, there will also be a lot of quick innings turned in by the bottom half.
Some other thoughts on the Bay signing:
– I don’t think this means Bay needs to be avoided in fantasy leagues this year. While Wright’s decline made it appear as though Citi Field was an impossible home run park for right-handed hitters in its initial season, the stats say it actually helped them. Its home run park factor for right-handed hitters was 110 (with 100 being average), putting it behind only Cincinnati, Colorado, Philadelphia and Houston in the NL. With plenty of strong OBPs ahead of him, Bay should be good for 30 homers and 110 RBI in year one as a Met.
– For that reason, Bay won’t have to worry about being viewed as a disappointment right away. Still, I really think the Mets would be better off playing him at first base, even though it would block a quality prospect in Ike Davis. Maybe we’ll see it in 2011 if Davis disappoints in the minors next year.
– Right now, it’s Fernando Martinez who is blocked. He needed some additional Triple-A time anyway, but he’s now at the mercy of Jeff Francoeur. If Francoeur continues to hit like he did in the second half of last season, he won’t be budged at any point during 2010.

Jorge Posada highlights 16 one-and-done players on Hall of Fame ballot

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 24:  Jorge Posada addresses the media during a press conference to announces his retirement from the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on January 24, 2012 in the Bronx borough of  New York City.  (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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Former Yankees catcher Jorge Posada received only 17 total votes (3.8 percent) on the 2017 Hall of Fame ballot. Unfortunately, he is one of 16 players who fell short of the five percent vote threshold and is no longer eligible on the ballot. The other players are Magglio Ordonez (three votes, 0.7 percent), Edgar Renteria (two, 0.5 percent), Jason Varitek (two, 0.5 percent), Tim Wakefield (one, 0.2 percent), Casey Blake (zero), Pat Burrell (zero), Orlando Cabrera (zero), Mike Cameron (zero), J.D. Drew (zero), Carlos Guillen (zero), Derrek Lee (zero), Melvin Mora (zero), Arthur Rhodes (zero), Freddy Sanchez (zero), and Matt Stairs (zero).

Posada, 45, helped the Yankees win four World Series championships from 1998-2000 as well as 2009. He made the American League All-Star team five times, won five Silver Sluggers, and had a top-three AL MVP Award finish. Posada also hit 20 or more homers in eight seasons, finished with a career adjusted OPS (a.k.a. OPS+) of 121, and accrued 42.7 Wins Above Replacement in his 17-year career according to Baseball Reference.

While Posada’s OPS+ and WAR are lacking compared to other Hall of Famers — he was 18th of 34 eligible players in JAWS, Jay Jaffe’s WAR-based Hall of Fame metric — catchers simply have not put up the same kind of numbers that players at other positions have. That’s likely because catching is such a physically demanding position and often results in injuries and shortened careers. It is, perhaps, not an adjustment voters have thought to make when considering Posada’s eligibility.

Furthermore, Posada’s quick ouster is somewhat due to the crowded ballot. Most voters had a hard time figuring out which 10 players to vote for. Had Posada been on the ballot in a different era, writers likely would have found it easier to justify voting for him.

Posada joins Kenny Lofton in the “unjustly one-and-done” group.

Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Ivan Rodriguez Elected to the Hall of Fame

1990:  Outfielder Tim Raines of the Montreal Expos in action. Mandatory Credit: Otto Greule  /Allsport
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The 2017 induction class of the Baseball Hall of Fame was announced Wednesday evening and we have three inductees: Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell and Ivan Rodriguez. Raines and Bagwell had to wait a good long while to get the call. Rodriguez is in on his first year of eligibility. But nowhere on the plaque will it say how long it took. All that matters now is that three of the greatest players of their respective generations finally have a place in Cooperstown.

Players must be named on 75% of the Baseball Writers Association of America’s ballots to get in. Raines was named on 86% of the ballots. Bagwell was named on 86.2%. Rodriguez was named on 76%. Non-inductees with significant vote totals include Trevor Hoffman at 74% and Vladimir Guerrero at  71.7%. The full results can be seen here.

Others not making the cut but still alive for next year, with vote totals in parenthesis: Edgar Martinez (58.6); Roger Clemens (54.1); Barry Bonds (53.8); Mike Mussina (51.8); Curt Schilling (45.0); Manny Ramirez (23.8); Larry Walker (21.9); Fred McGriff (21.7); Jeff Kent (16.7); Gary Sheffield (13.3%); Billy Wagner (10.2); and Sammy Sosa (8.6). Making his final appearance on the ballot was Lee Smith, who received 34.2% of the vote in his last year of eligibility. He will now be the business of the Veterans Committee.

Players who fell off the ballot due to not having the requisite 5% to stay on: Jorge Posada; Magglio Ordoñez; Edgar Renteria; Jason Varitek; Tim Wakefield; Casey Blake; Pat Burrell; Orlando Cabrera; Mike Cameron; J.D. Drew; Carlos Guillen; Derrek Lee; Melvin Mora; Arthur Rhodes; Freddy Sanchez; and Matt Stairs

We’ll have continued updates on today’s Hall of Fame vote throughout the evening and in the coming days. In the meantime, congratulations to this year’s inductees, Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell and Ivan Rodriguez!