Twins offer Pavano arbitration; will he accept?

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Today has been filled with all sorts of news on the arbitration front and there will be more offers and non-offers rolling in tonight, but I’m particularly curious about one player’s status.
Minnesota offered Carl Pavano arbitration and because he’s a Type B free agent that guarantees the Twins a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. Pavano also has the ability to accept the offer, in which case Minnesota would be on the hook for whatever one-year contract the arbiter decides.
Given his lengthy injury history it might seem obvious that Pavano would simply accept what’s essentially a one-year deal at market value, but believe it or not he may have actually pitched himself into a multi-year contract by staying healthy for the first time since 2004. After a terrible April he went 14-9 with a 4.67 ERA in 181.1 innings for the rest of the year, including 5-4 with a 4.62 ERA in a dozen starts for the Twins.
No doubt many teams will simply stay away from Pavano because of his track record–I’ll go out on a huge limb and say that Brian Cashman won’t be giving him a call–but my guess is that at least a few other general managers have already been in touch with his agent. He tossed 199 innings while ranking among the AL’s top five in starts, walk rate, and strikeout-to-walk ratio, so unlikely as it may have been even six months ago there’s probably little risk of Pavano actually accepting Minnesota’s arbitration offer.
Ultimately the Twins will probably have to go beyond a one-year deal to retain him, which would be an awfully big risk for a 34-year-old whose upside is mid-rotation starter and downside is … well, disabled list resident.

Madison Bumgarner likely sidelined through the All-Star break

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It’s been just over a week since Giants’ left-hander Madison Bumgarner got a serious scare after a nasty dirt bike accident. He escaped with bruised ribs and a Grade 2 strain of his left shoulder AC joint, but there was some speculation that the injuries would cause a significant, if not permanent, setback in the southpaw’s career. Thankfully, things aren’t looking quite so bleak today. Not only will Bumgarner not require surgery, but he could return as soon as the week following the All-Star break, the Giants said Friday.

Of course, that timeline is wholly dependent on how smoothly the recovery process goes, so nothing is set in stone yet. NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic estimates 2-3 months of rest and rehab, including “two months before he can get back on the mound and then another three to four weeks of throwing and rehab starts before he’s big league-ready.” It’s a long and laborious schedule, but still looks much better than any surgical alternative.

Prior to the accident, Bumgarner was working on a solid start to the 2017 season. He maintained a 3.00 ERA, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.3 SO/9 through 27 innings with the club, though his average 1.75 runs of support per start fed into an 0-3 record.

Video: Manny Machado hits a 470-foot home run

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You’ve seen Carlos Gomez’s 461-foot home run. You’ve seen Joey Gallo’s 462-foot blast. You’ve seen Corey Seager’s 462-footer, too. During Friday’s series opener against the Yankees, Manny Machado delivered the tie-breaker we were all hoping for, launching a 470-foot moonshot over the center field wall to pad the Orioles’ 5-0 lead in the fifth:

It was Machado’s fourth homer of the season, and quite a doozy, according to Statcast. MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli says that it’s currently the longest home run recorded at Yankee Stadium, dating back through Statcast’s inception in 2015.

Through eight innings, the Yankees and Orioles combined for five home runs and two grand slams, though none reached quite as far as Machado’s record-setting blast. Aaron Judge went deep twice, hitting the 417-foot mark in the fifth inning and the 435-mark in the sixth, while Mark Trumbo executed a 459-foot grand slam in the sixth inning, followed by a 420-foot slam from Jacoby Ellsbury in the seventh. The Orioles currently lead the Yankees 11-8 in the ninth inning.