My ballot: National League Cy Young

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Later today the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their choice for NL Cy Young, but first here’s how my ballot would look:
1. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco
2. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis
3. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
4. Javier Vazquez, Atlanta
5. Dan Haren, Arizona
This is a tight race, so it’ll be an interesting test of whether the BBWAA has truly moved past focusing on win-loss records to evaluate pitchers or if they were merely willing to do so with Zack Greinke because he was so clearly the best guy in the AL.
Adam Wainwright led the NL with 19 wins and had a great year, posting a 2.63 ERA and 212/66 K/BB ratio in 233 innings. He also just wasn’t as good as Tim Lincecum, who had a 2.48 ERA and 261/68 K/BB ratio in 225 innings. Wainwright logged eight more innings than Lincecum, but allowed six more runs with 20 percent fewer strikeouts and the same number of walks, and his opponents’ batting average was 40 points worse. We’ll see how many voters focus on that rather than Lincecum’s modest 15 wins.
And then there’s Chris Carpenter, who led the league with a 2.24 ERA and ranked second to Wainwright with 17 wins. At first glance that would make him the favorite, but it’s important to note that Carpenter logged only 193 innings to rank 26th in the NL. Is the difference between his 2.24 ERA and Lincecum’s 2.48 ERA bigger than the difference between his 193 innings and Lincecum’s 225 innings? Or put another way, if Carpenter tossed 32.2 more innings with a 3.85 ERA he’d match Lincecum in innings and ERA.
Certainly a 3.85 ERA in 32.2 innings isn’t dominant pitching, but it does have value and that gap between Lincecum and Carpenter makes it worth examining workloads along with ERAs. Lincecum was second-best in the NL at preventing runs with an ERA that’s 10 percent higher than Carpenter’s, but he threw 20 percent more innings. He also led the NL in Zack Greinke’s new favorite stat, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and saved slightly more runs than Carpenter compared to a replacement-level pitcher.
This is a very tight race and my guess is that Carpenter will win the award because of his lower ERA, higher win total, and a dramatic comeback from arm injuries making for a much better story, but Lincecum is the reigning Cy Young winner and was actually better than last season even if his win total kept many people from realizing it. He gets my nod for the best pitcher in the league, just barely over Carpenter, because of a higher workload and more dominance with similar overall run prevention.

Braves’ Markakis misses game because of family emergency

Nick Markakis, Nick Swisher
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NEW YORK (AP) Braves right fielder Nick Markakis has left the team because of a family emergency.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez said before Wednesday’s game against the Mets that Markakis had headed home to Maryland. The veteran is expected to be back in time for Friday’s home game against Arizona. Atlanta is off Thursday.

Chase d’Arnaud is starting in right field and Mallex Smith is leading off Wednesday.

Markakis is hitting .281 with no home runs and 20 RBIs.

Report: more major league PED suspensions coming soon

FILE - In this May 30, 2007 file photo a blister with the steroid Oral-Turinabol is displayed in Dresden, eastern Germany. Oral-Turinabol was the main drug in the state-controlled doping in former East Germany.    (AP Photo/Matthias Rietschel, file)
Associated Press
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T.J. Quinn of ESPN’s Outside the Lines reports that another major leaguer — or possibly several of them — will soon be suspended for PEDs. He says that, as was the case with Chris Colabello and others recently, the drug will be Turinabol, which is an old school anabolic steroid. Quinn says that improved testing procedures, which he details in the article, are a likely reason for the spike in Turinabol positives, though it’s also possible that there is a tainted supplement being taken, though he deems that speculative.

What isn’t mentioned is . . . how an ESPN reporter knows a positive test is coming when the drug testing program is supposed to be confidential. Someone with the league or the union must be telling him, right? That’s sort of messed up, no? Will MLB investigate who is leaking such things?

Whatever the case, we’ll soon have a new police blotter item, it seems.

What’s on Tap: Previewing Wednesday’s afternoon action

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez gives a thumbs-up as he is pulled from the team's baseball game against the Kansas City Royals in the eighth inning, Friday, April 29, 2016, in Seattle. The Mariners won 1-0. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
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Wednesday usually means day baseball and today we have seven games on tap before the cocktail hour. Well, before most people’s cocktail hour. Do what you want but some of us have fewer hangups about such things. Working at home is amazing, you guys.

The most notable thing of today’s pitching matchups is that, because of staggered days off, skipped starts and stuff, we’re finally out of that lockstep, early-season thing in which aces face aces all the time. That’s fun and everything — it’s great for the fans — but I bet it annoys the pitchers to some degree. Felix Hernandez vs. Sonny Gray is a marquee matchup. But I bet Felix is happy to be facing Sean Manaea in his second-ever big league start as opposed to a dude who might match zeros with him. Ohio State schedules MAC schools for many of the same reasons.

Anyway, here are the matchups. Skip work, tell your boss you’ve gotta see a guy about a thing and watch baseball. In your heart you know it’s the right thing to do:

Chicago Cubs (Jon Lester) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Juan Nicasio), 12:35 PM EDT, PNC Park;

San Francisco Giants (Jake Peavy) @ Cincinnati Reds (Dan Straily), 12:35 PM EDT, Great American Ball Park

Atlanta Braves (Jhoulys Chacin) @ New York Mets (Steven Matz), 1:10 PM EDT, Citi Field

Los Angeles Angels (Hector Santiago) @ Milwaukee Brewers (Zach Davies), 1:40 PM EDT, Miller Park

Washington Nationals (Stephen Strasburg) @ Kansas City Royals (Kris Medlen), 2:15 PM EDT, Kauffman Stadium

Seattle Mariners (Felix Hernandez) @ Oakland Athletics (Alex Manaea), 3:35 PM EDT, Oakland Coliseum

Colorado Rockies (Tyler Chatwood) @ San Diego Padres (Cesar Vargas), 3:40 PM EDT, Petco Park

Is Bud Black the favorite to be the next Braves manager?

Bud Black
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We talked last week about how Fredi Gonzalez is likely a dead man walking as the Braves manager. They stink, he’s a lame duck and part of the team’s whole marketing thrust is “2017 will be a new beginning,” what with the new ballpark and all. It stands to reason that Mr. Gonzalez doesn’t have long for this world.

Last week I suspected he’d be fired tomorrow, the Braves off day before a home stand. They’ve won in the past week, but it still wouldn’t shock me. Even if firing Gonzalez would be an act of scapegoating. It’s the roster that’s the problem, not the manager, even though Fredi doesn’t exactly inspire anyone.

Today Bob Nightengale throws this into the mix:

As of yet he hasn’t followed that up with an actual column or more tweets about who, exactly, considers Black to be the heavy favorite, but there’s a definitiveness to that which makes me think he’s heard something solid.

Black, as you know, was the long time Padres manager who had an unsuccessful flirtation with the Nationals before they hired Dusty Baker this past offseason. Black is now cooling his heels with his longtime boss Mike Scioscia in Anaheim, in what is clearly a “wait for his next managing opportunity” posture.

Could it be in Atlanta? At least one national writer and some nebulous group of insiders believe so, it would seem.