My ballot: National League Rookie of the Year

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Later today the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their choice for NL Rookie of the Year, but first here’s how my ballot would look:
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
2. J.A. Happ, Philadelphia
3. Chris Coghlan, Florida
4. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta
5. Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh
Honorable mention: Randy Wells, Casey McGehee, Kenshin Kawakami, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, Clay Zavada’s mustache
Called up in early June, Andrew McCutchen started 108 of the final 109 games for the Pirates and batted .286/.365/.471 with 47 extra-base hits and 22 steals while playing solid defense in center field.
Chris Coghlan was slightly better than McCutchen at the plate, hitting .321/.390/.460 in 128 games, but did so while playing left field and playing it badly. McCutchen’s bat was actually 11 percent better than the average center fielder, whereas Coghlan’s bat was just 10 percent better than the average left fielder. Toss in McCutchen’s massive edge defensively plus his extra value on the bases and he clearly had more overall value.
Of course, on a per-plate appearance basis Garrett Jones was the best rookie hitter in the league, batting .293/.372/.567 with 21 homers and 21 doubles in 358 trips to the plate. Had he played enough to qualify for the NL leaderboards Jones would’ve ranked sixth in slugging percentage, eighth in at-bats per homer, and ninth in OPS. He was amazing, but playing just 82 of 162 games keeps him from ranking higher on my ballot.
J.A. Happ began this season in the Phillies’ bullpen, where he had a 2.49 ERA and .184 opponents’ batting average in 22 innings. He shifted to the rotation in mid-May and stayed there for the remainder of the year, going 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 144 innings spread over 23 starts. Happ excelled in multiple roles, led the league with two shutouts, led all rookies with 166 innings, and went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA.
Tommy Hanson is sort of the Jones of rookie pitchers, because he was fantastic while going 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA, but logged only 128 innings. In addition to Happ posting a nearly identical ERA in 30 percent more innings, Randy Wells of the Cubs had a 3.05 ERA in 165 innings. In terms of most impressive rookies Hanson has an argument for the top spot, but in terms of most valuable rookies it’s tough to make that case.

Matt Harvey has a 13.19 ERA since coming back from the disabled list

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Matt Harvey‘s season was mostly a loss due to extended time on the disabled list. He’s been given a chance, however, to end the season strong and make a case for himself in the Mets’ future plans. Unfortunately, he has been unable to make that case. He was shelled again last night, and his late season opportunity has been a disaster.

Last night Harvey gave up seven runs on 12 hits and struck out only two batters in four innings against a Marlins team that, until facing him anyway, had been reeling. It was his fourth start since going on the shelf in mid-June and in those four starts he’s allowed 21 runs, all earned, on 32 hits in 14.2 innings, for an ERA of 13.19. In that time he’s struck out only eight batters while walking seven. His average fastball velocity, while ticking up slightly in each of his past four starts, is still below 95. Back when he was an ace he was consistently above that. His command has been terrible.

Injury is clearly the culprit. He had Tommy John surgery just as he was reaching his maximum level of dominance in 2013. While he came back strong in 2015, he was used pretty heavily for a guy with a brand new ligament. Last year he was felled by thoracic outlet syndrome and this year a stress injury to his shoulder. Any one of those ailments have ended pitchers’ careers and even among those who bounce back from them, many are diminished. To go through all three and remain dominant is practically unheard of.

Yet this is where Matt Harvey is. He’s 28. He’s still arbitration eligible, for a team that is, to put it politely, sensitive to large financial outlays. While his 4-5 start opportunity to end the year may very well have been seen as a chance to shop Harvey to another team, his trade value is at an all-time low. It would not be shocking if, on the basis of his recent ineffectiveness, the Mets considered non-tendering him this offseason, making him a free agent.

Someone would probably take a chance on him because famous names who once showed tremendous promise are often given multiple chances in the big leagues (See, Willis, Dontrelle). But at the moment, there is nothing in Harvey’s game to suggest that he is capable of taking advantage of such a chance. All one can hope is that an offseason of rest and conditioning will allow Harvey to reclaim at least a portion of his old form.

Noah Syndergaard is concerned about climate change

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Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has been on the disabled list for most of the season so it’s not like “sticking to baseball” is an option for him. The man has a lot of time on his hands. And, given that he’s from Texas, he is obviously paying attention to the flooding and destruction brought by Hurricane Harvey and its fellow storms in recent weeks.

Last night the self-described “Texan Republican” voiced concern over something a lot of Republicans don’t tend to talk about much openly: climate change and the Paris Agreement:

The existence of Karma and its alleged effects are above my pay grade, but the other part he’s talking about is the Trump Administration’s decision, announced at the beginning of June, to pull out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement on climate change mitigation. Withdrawal from it was something Trump campaigned on in 2016 on the basis that “The Paris accord will undermine the economy,” and “put us at a permanent disadvantage.” The effective date for withdrawal is 2020, which Syndergaard presumably knows, thus the reference to Karma.

Trump and Syndergaard are certainly entitled to their views on all of that. It’s worth noting that climate experts and notable think tanks like the Brookings Institution strongly disagree with Trump’s position with respect to tradeoffs and impacts, both economic and environmental. At the same time it’s difficult to find much strong sentiment in favor of pulling out of the Paris Agreement outside of conservative political outlets, who tend to find themselves in the distinct minority when it comes to climate change policy.

I’m not sure what a poll of baseball players would reveal about their collective views on the matter, but we now have at least one datapoint.