My ballot: American League Rookie of the Year

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Later today the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their choice for AL Rookie of the Year, but first here’s how my ballot would look:
1. Andrew Bailey, Oakland
2. Elvis Andrus, Texas
3. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay
4. Gordon Beckham, Chicago
5. Rick Porcello, Detroit
Honorable mention: Brett Anderson, Ricky Romero, Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters
I’m not all that keen on giving the award to a reliever, but Andrew Bailey was arguably the best relief pitcher in the entire American League this season. He went 6-3 and converted 26-of-30 saves with a 1.84 ERA and 91/25 K/BB ratio in 83 innings.
Among relievers with at least 60 innings Bailey led the league in opponents’ batting average (.167) and WHIP (0.88) while ranking second in ERA behind only Mariano Rivera. Bailey wasn’t on the field as much as the other top candidates, but he dominated like no other rookie, his 83 innings were the third-most of any AL reliever, and his outings came in higher-leverage situations than the rookie starters.
Gordon Beckham will almost surely get the most votes among position players because his raw offensive numbers are the best, but Elvis Andrus had a more valuable rookie campaign. Beckham hit .270/.347/.460 with seven steals, which made him five percent above average at third base. Andrus hit .267/.329/.373 with 33 steals, which made him almost exactly average at shortstop.
Beckham was slightly better than Andrus relative to their positions, but that edge quickly vanishes when you consider that Andrus had 25 percent more plate appearances and played spectacular defense at shortstop. I’ll take 541 plate appearances of average offense and great defense at an up-the-middle position over 430 plate appearances of slightly above average offense and average defense at a corner spot.
This season featured a high number of rookie starting pitchers making impacts, but Jeff Niemann stood out by going 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 125/59 K/BB ratio in 181 innings. Five rookies logged at least 150 innings, and Niemann had the biggest workload and a lower ERA than Ricky Romero, Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, and Trevor Cahill. Niemann also tied for third in the AL with two complete-game shutouts, behind only Roy Halladay and Zack Greinke.

Jeurys Familia’s domestic violence suspension to be announced today

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Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the announcement of Jeurys Familia‘s domestic violence suspension is expected some time today.

Familia was arrested in October following an incident at his home. Criminal charges were dropped in December. As we know, however, MLB’s domestic violence policy does not require criminal proceedings to be commenced, let alone completed, before the leveling of league punishment. MLB has been investigating the incident for the past several months.

Billy Witz of the New York Times reported Monday that the suspension is “almost certain” to be lighter than the 30-game suspension Aroldis Chapman received one year ago. However much time Familia misses, the Mets are expecting Addison Reed to fill in at closer until he returns.

2017 Preview: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2017 season. Next up: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. 

Let’s look first at the strengths. There’s Mike Trout, the undisputed best player in the game. That’s always a good start. I could bore you with a bunch of stats and historical comparisons here but we’re friends here and, let’s be honest, we don’t need or even want that. The guy is good, ’nuff said.

Indeed, I had an impulse to simply photoshop Trout’s head on this poster and be done with the entire Angels preview:

 

You could almost stop reading now and know what’s up in Anaheim this year.

But honestly, Trout isn’t the only strength here. The Angels have the best defensive shortstop in the league in Andrelton Simmons and a lot of other good defensive players as well, from Kole Calhoun in right, Cameron Maybin in left, Luis Valbuena at first (or wherever he’s slotted once he comes back from a hamstring injury) and Danny Espinosa at second. Their catching corps — Martin Maldonado and Carlos Perez — are solid too. When you lack team depth and have pitching challenges like the Angels do, not kicking the ball all over the field is a good thing. The Angels have kicked the ball a lot in recent years but they’ll be pretty good with the leather in 2017, and that can make up for a lot of faults.

But I ain’t gonna lie, there are a lot of faults here.

Garrett Richards is back from a UCL injury that sidelined him most of last season. He didn’t get Tommy John surgery — he went with stem cell treatment — so the recovery time is lower. Still, it seems like a lot of guys who go the rehab route end up going under the knife eventually anyway, so everyone will have their eye on the Angels’ ace as the season goes on.

Beyond Richards the rotation is suspect. Matt ShoemakerRicky NolascoTyler Skaggs — also coming back from injury — and Jesse Chavez do not, as a group, strike fear into anyone’s hearts. I guess the hope here is that Nolasco’s pitching after he came over from Minnesota is more indicative of what he can do than what he did earlier in the year. Or, for that matter, for the past three seasons. If Richards is healthy he’s an ace. The rest of these guys are basically average at best.

The pen has issues. Cam Bedrosian had a fantastic 2016, but it was definitely a huge step up for him and may have been an aberration. closer Huston Street did not have a fantastic 2016, is recovering from a strained lat now and it’s fair to ask whether he’s got what it takes to close in the bigs anymore. Even if that’s too pessimistic an assessment, he’s missed a lot of time this spring. Andrew Bailey, like Nolasco, pitched well after coming to Anaheim last summer but poorly before that, with the poorly looking more like his true level than the well. Otherwise Mike Scioscia has a lot of young arms but not a lot of particularly good ones. Look for his bullpen to feature a cast of thousands.

As for the lineup: Trout is Trout. Albert Pujols is recovering from yet another foot issue. He still has old man strength and can hit some dingers, but he’s a shell of his former self and it’s fair to ask how many lower body maladies a guy whose primary value is tied up in power can tolerate. Yunel Escobar, Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron are useful and predictable, even if they’re not game-changers. The Angels were 10th in offense in the AL last year. It’s hard to see them making a big leap from that level this year, even if they’re not likely to be too much worse either.

Ultimately, there’s not enough pitching here and there’s not a scary enough secondary or tertiary offensive threat behind Trout to make the offense difficult to deal with. If you play the Angels you’ll score some runs and you can pitch to everyone who isn’t wearing the number 27. That’s not gonna cut it in the AL West this year.

Prediction: Fourth place, American League West.