Free Agency Preview: First base & DH

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Free Agency Preview – Catchers
This is part two in a series of columns looking at this winter’s free agents, trade candidates and non-tender possibilities. I’ll be making predictions for the key free agents, but try not to take them too awfully seriously. Here are the first basemen and designated hitters.
Adam LaRoche (Braves) – Fortunately, LaRoche’s big surge as a member of the Braves — he hit .325 with 12 homers and 40 RBI in 57 games after being traded for the second time in 2009 — still wasn’t enough to make him a Type A free agent. In fact, not one of the free agent first basemen/designated hitters will require draft pick compensation.
That he’s just now turning 30 and he’s proven quite durable gives LaRoche a significant advantage over the other options at first base. His worst OPS in six big-league seasons was a 775 mark in 2005, and he’s a steady defender. He’s the safest available choice and the only one worthy of a three-year deal. Besides the Braves, it looks like the Orioles, Mariners, Mets, Giants and Diamondbacks have the biggest needs at first base. However, most of those teams have quality first base prospects on the way and will target one-year options. That might make Baltimore and San Francisco the best first for LaRoche. Prediction: Orioles – three years, $21 million
Nick Johnson (Marlins) – Johnson failed to recover his power last season after missing so much of 2008 with wrist problems, but he did manage to play in 133 games and get on base at a .426 clip. Even if he’s no longer a candidate to hit 20-25 homers, he’s still the best player in this group of first basemen. Of course, he’s also the most fragile. He’s never played in 150 games, and he’s been held under 100 games four times in his eight seasons. He’ll likely get a two-year deal anyway, but it won’t be for big money. Not helping his case is that most of the teams that particularly value OBP are already set at first base. Prediction: Mariners – two years, $12 million
Carlos Delgado (Mets) – The Mets probably wouldn’t have paid the price to bring back a healthy Delgado in 2010, but the 37-year-old will be forced to take quite a discount after hip surgery cost him the final 132 games of last season. He’d seem to make a fine stopgap for one of the teams waiting on a first base prospect. However, that will depend on whether he’s still going to be able to field his position. The Mets are the ones with all of the info about his condition, so if they’re not interested in re-signing him, other NL teams would be smart to stay away. Prediction: Giants – one year, $7 million
Russell Branyan (Mariners) – Branyan gave the Mariners 31 homers for a mere $1.4 million last season, so it’s not surprising that Seattle wants him back. It’s also not surprising that Branyan is holding out for a multiyear deal this time around. He would have had a much better chance of getting one if he didn’t miss the final five weeks of last season with back problems. Branyan’s 2009 performance wasn’t necessarily a fluke, but his slumps get especially ugly and his extreme strikeout rate will cause many teams to shy away. Working under the theory that it’s really tough to hit homers at Citi Field — whether it’s true or not — the Mets might think it makes sense to go with someone who hits bombs. Prediction: Mets – one year, $5 million
Hank Blalock (Rangers) – One of the game’s best young players in 2003 and ’04, Blalock has now gone five straight seasons without being both healthy and productive He excelled in 2007 and 2008, but he played in just 123 games between the two seasons. In the other three years, he finished with OPSs of 749, 726 and 736. Also needing to be weighed in is that he may no longer an option at third base and that he’s a career .245/.300/.414 hitter away from Arlington. Still, he’s just turning 29 and his power hasn’t gone anywhere. He’ll probably need to accept a one-year deal in order to rebuild his value, and that will make him worth trying. Ideally, the team that signs him would also get an option for 2011, just in case he does come through with a big season. Prediction: Diamondbacks – one year, $4.5 million
Jim Thome (Dodgers) – Thome’s back seems to be deteriorating to the point at which he’s no longer even an everyday designated hitter, but he still managed an 864 OPS and 23 homers in 345 at-bats before the White Sox sent him to Los Angeles for the final month of last season. The move was welcomed by Thome, since the White Sox were out of contention, but the 39-year-old is open to returning to Chicago now. It’d be a surprise if the two sides couldn’t work something out. Prediction: White Sox – one year, $4 million
Aubrey Huff (Tigers) – Huff appeared to be in position for another multiyear deal when he hit a respectable .275/.342/.450 over the first three months of last season. Unfortunately, a July slump followed and he was particularly terrible after being sent from Baltimore to Detroit, coming in at .189/.265/.302 in 106 at-bats the rest of the way. Needless to say, he cost himself a lot of money in the process. He should land another starting job, but there’s a good chance he’ll be one of the last first basemen off the board. Prediction: Braves – one year, $3.5 million
Other free agents: Jason Giambi (Rockies), Chad Tracy (Diamondbacks), Mike Sweeney (Mariners), Ross Gload (Marlins), Kevin Millar (Blue Jays), Nomar Garciaparra (Athletics), Daryle Ward (Nationals), Robb Quinlan (Angels), Chris Shelton (Mariners), Dmitri Young (Nationals), Jeff Bailey (Red Sox), Ryan Shealy (Royals), Justin Huber (Twins), Tony Clark (FA), Doug Mientkiewicz (Dodgers), Joe Koshansky (Brewers), Bryan LaHair (Mariners), Greg Norton (Braves), Kevin Barker (Reds)
Giambi was a bust as Oakland’s first baseman, but he excelled in a brief stint as a bench player with the Rockies, driving in 11 runs in just 24 at-bats. While his defensive limitations are obvious, there are likely several NL teams that would welcome his presence off the bench. … Tracy has been a big disappointment since returning from knee surgery in 2008, but he’s a 29-year-old with a career OPS of 792 and he’ll come awfully cheap. It will be interesting to see who takes a chance on him. Cleveland is my guess.
Trade candidates: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres), Prince Fielder (Brewers), James Loney (Dodgers), Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays), Jorge Cantu (Marlins), Casey Kotchman (Red Sox), Travis Ishikawa (Giants), Ryan Garko (Giants), Gaby Sanchez (Marlins), Jake Fox (Cubs), Micah Hoffpauir (Cubs), Jeff Larish (Tigers), Juan Miranda (Yankees), Steve Pearce (Pirates), Oscar Salazar (Padres), Kila Ka’aihue (Royals), Josh Whitesell (Diamondbacks), Jordan Brown (Indians)
Can the Red Sox or Mets pry Gonzalez away from the Padres? He seems like the better bet to go than Fielder, but since there’s two years left on his deal, there’s no pressure on San Diego to pull the trigger now. New GM Jed Hoyer won’t want to make a Gonzalez trade his first move with the team unless there’s a really sweet deal on the table. … Loney’s name popped up when the Dodgers were supposedly in on Gonzalez at midseason. First base seemed a reasonable place to look for an upgrade then. However, between Loney’s strong finish and the money problems expected to result from the Dodgers’ ownership mess, a move seems pretty unlikely now.
Overbay is expected to exit Toronto, with Adam Lind likely stepping in at first base. His name has already come up in rumors with the Diamondbacks, Mets and Mariners, and it’d be no surprise to see him connected with the Giants and Braves soon. That he has only one year and $7 million left on his deal makes him rather attractive. … Cantu is likely due around $5.5 million-$6 million next season, so a move is possible. However, the Marlins should have the flexibility to keep him if they trade Dan Uggla. … The Cubs can’t hold on to both Fox and Hoffpauir when they’re scared to play either in the outfield. As the left-handed hitter on a team with a right-handed first baseman, Hoffpauir seems like the better fit of the two.

Non-tender candidates: Casey Kotchman (Red Sox), Mike Jacobs (Royals), Ryan Garko (Giants), Shelley Duncan (Yankees), Juan Miranda (Yankees), Michael Aubrey (Orioles), Aaron Bates (Red Sox), Barbaro Canizares (Braves)
The Jeremy Hermida acquisition didn’t seem to bode well for Kotchman’s chances of sticking in Boston, as the team can only keep so many $3 million bench players. Free agency might be the best thing for Kotchman anyway. I still view the 26-year-old as a long-term regular. … Jacobs won’t be brought back by the Royals, and it’s doubtful that anyone will trade for him when he figures to make $3.5 million or so in arbitration. … Garko is a first-time arbitration eligible player, and he is worth his likely $1.5 million-$2 million salary. The Giants, though, would have little reason to keep him around if they went out and got a full-time first baseman. Odds are that he wouldn’t last long in free agency. Since every notable first baseman in free agency is left-handed, his right-handed bat would be pretty attractive.
2010-11 free agents: Albert Pujols (Cardinals)*, Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)*, Carlos Pena (Rays), Lance Berkman (Astros)*, Derrek Lee (Cubs), David Ortiz (Red Sox)*, Paul Konerko (White Sox), Jorge Cantu (Marlins), Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays), Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners), Wes Helms (Marlins)
2011 options: Pujols – $16 million ($5 million buyout), Gonzalez – $5.5 million, Berkman – $15 million ($2 million buyout), Ortiz – $12.5 million
2011-12 free agents: Albert Pujols (Cardinals), Prince Fielder (Brewers), Adrian Gonzalez (Padres), Ryan Howard (Phillies), Todd Helton (Rockies)*, Casey Kotchman (Red Sox), Mike Jacobs (Royals)
2012 options: Helton – $23 million ($4.6 million buyout)

The Yankees are paying $86 million for a one-inning reliever

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OXON HILL, MD — The Yankees signing of Aroldis Chapman late Wednesday night came as something of a surprise. And the money — $86 million — was something of a shock. Yes, we knew that Chapman was going to break the bank and likely set a record as the highest paid relief pitcher in history, but seeing it in black and white like that is still rather jarring.

In the coming days, many people who attempt to analyze and contextualize this signing will do so by pointing to the 2016 playoffs and the unconventional use of relievers by Terry Francona and the Indians and Joe Maddon of the Cubs. They’ll talk about how the paradigm of bullpen use has shifted and how relief pitchers have taken on a new importance in today’s game. Chapman’s astronomical salary, therefore, will be described as somehow more reasonable and somewhat less shocking than it first seems.

Don’t buy that jive for a second.

Yes, Andrew Miller and, to some extent, Chapman himself were used unconventionally in the 2016 playoffs, but not long into the 2017 season we will see that as an exception, not the rule. And not just because Chapman showed himself unable to hold up to that level of use in the playoffs. It will be the exception because the Yankees have shown no inclination whatsoever to deviate from traditional bullpen usage in the past and there is no reason to expect that they will do so with Chapman in the future.

As you no doubt remember, the Yankees had Chapman, Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller for the first half of 2016. Such an imposing back end of a bullpen has rarely been seen in recent history. All of them, however, were used, more or less, as one-inning-a-piece guys and no real effort was ever made to break any bullpen usage paradigms or to shorten games the way many applauded Terry Francona for doing in the playoffs.

Miller pitched 44 games for the Yankees, totaling 45.1 innings. He pitched more than a single inning on only three occasions. Chapman pitched 31 games for the Yankees, amassing 31.1 innings. He was used for more than one inning only twice. Betances worked in 73 games, totaling 73 innings. On 11 occasions he pitched more than one inning.  It was unconventional for a team to have three relievers that good, but they were not, in any way, used unconventionally. Nor is there any reason to expect Chapman to be used unconventionally in 2017, especially given that Miller is not around and Chapman has shown no real ability to be stretched for multiple innings for a sustained period.

None of which is to say that having Chapman around is a bad thing or that he is any less of a closer than his reputation suggests. It’s merely to say that the Yankees paying Chapman unprecedented money for a closer should not be justified by the alleged new importance of relief pitchers or that changing role for them we heard so much about in the playoffs. Indeed, I suspect that that changing role applies only to pitcher use in the playoffs. And I do not suspect that this transaction alone pushes the Yankees into serious playoff contention, making that temporary unconventionality something of a moot point in New York for the foreseeable future.

It is almost certain that the Yankees are paying $86 million for the same one-inning closer Aroldis Chapman has been for his entire seven-year career. His contract may or may not prove to be a good one for New York based on how he performs, but don’t let anyone tell you now, in Decemeber 2016, that it’s better than you think because Chapman will somehow transform into a 1970s-style relief ace or something.

Report: Yankees sign Aroldis Chapman to a five-year, $86 million deal

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Update (12:02 AM EST): Rosenthal adds that Chapman’s contract includes an opt-out clause after three seasons, a full no-trade clause for the first three years of the contract, and a limited no-trade clause for the final two years.

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Yankees have signed closer Aroldis Chapman to a five-year, $86 million contract. Mark Melancon recently set the record for a contract earned by a reliever at $62 million over four years. Chapman blew that out of the water and many are surprised he didn’t fetch more.

Chapman, 28, began the 2016 season with the Yankees but he was traded to the Cubs near the end of July in exchange for four prospects. The Cubs, of course, would go on to win the World Series in large part due to Chapman. The lefty finished the regular season with a 1.55 ERA, 36 saves, and a 90/18 K/BB ratio in 58 innings between the two teams.

Chapman was the best reliever on the free agent market and, because he was traded midseason, he didn’t have draft pick compensation attached to him.

The Yankees don’t seem to be deterred by Chapman’s domestic violence issue from last offseason, resulting in a 30-game suspension to begin the 2016 regular season.