Cole Hamels was 10-11 with a 4.32
ERA during the regular season. His 6.75 ERA over three starts during
the postseason was enough for Charlie Manuel to opt for Pedro Martinez
in Thursday’s Game 2 rather than last season’s World Series MVP,
prompting many to wonder, “What’s wrong with King Cole?” The truth? Not
as much as you might think.
To start with, some might be
surprised to learn that his peripheral stats have remained fairly
stable, if not better in some cases, than 2008:
2008: 7.76 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9
2009: 7.81 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9
While his peripheral stats have
remained constant, Hamels has been especially unlucky in BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), seeing
it jump from .270 in 2008 to .325 this season. Thus, while his ERA
inflated to 4.32 from 3.09 in 2008, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is exactly the same over the past two seasons (3.72).
Most pitchers are victims or
beneficiaries of fluctuations in BABIP from year-to-year, but Manuel
thinks the league has become more familiar with Hamels’ repertoire. His
curveball has been largely unreliable in 2009 (-4.5 RAA/100, according to Fangraphs), allowing opposing batters to sit on his fastball-changeup combination.
“I don’t know if the league has figured him out,” Manuel said. “I think
the league knows more about him and sits on his fastball or change-up.
They can spend a whole at-bat totally looking for that pitch.’‘
Hamels plans to add a fourth
pitch during the offseason, and he needs to look no further than his
opponent Andy Pettitte on Saturday in order to see why. As Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley
pointed out earlier today, he has a varied arsenal of pitches to rely on from game-to-game. While a fourth pitch will have to wait until next season, don’t be surprised to see his luck finally even out in Game 3.
The Miami Herald reports that the Marlins and Martin Prado have agreed to a three-year, $40 million contracy extension.
Prado has been highly effective for Miami, hitting .297/.350/.405 over two seasons The Marlins were eager to keep him and many teams were no doubt interested in trying to sign him this winter as he stood pretty darn tall on a pretty weak free agent market. He may very well have done better than the $40 million he’s getting, but a qualifying offer could’ve made the free agency process a bit more drawn out one than he would’ve preferred. And, of course, he seems very happy in Miami, as evidenced by his increasing role as a team leader with the Marlins.
For his career Prado has hit .293/.342/.423 over 11 seasons. He’ll now be locked up through his age-35 campaign.
The Cardinals got shellacked 15-2 by the Reds, one of baseball’s worst teams, last night. In so doing they fell a half game behind the Giants for the second Wild Card.
Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post Dispatch wrote about last night’s game. What struck him was the reaction from the crowd at Busch Stadium:
And the fans, in a rare moment of pique, let the Cardinals hear about it, first booing and then erupting in a Bronx cheer when the final out of a seven-run fourth was recorded. They booed a little more later on and then many of them beat the traffic, with some of them at least leaving with a Grateful Dead T-shirt, a special theme night promotion . . . The paid crowd to witness the carnage was 34,942, snapping a string of 240 straight crowds here of over 40,000, dating to Sept. 24, 2013. Matheny said he noticed the reaction of the crowd and appeared to find little fault with it.
It’s been such a weird season for the Cardinals. Maybe the weirdest part of all has been how terrible they’ve been at home, with a record of 33-42. They have six more games at home, and they no longer control their own playoff destiny.
Is this booing and leaving a one-time thing, or will we see a lot more of it between now and Sunday?