Major League Baseball is lying about Jay-Z

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OK, this is really, really, petty in the grand scheme of things, but since Bud Selig hates it when teams announce actual news while the World Series is happening, this will have to tide us over. If you want, you can skip to the bottom to get my World Series prediction.

Jay-Z and Alicia Keys were originally slated to perform before tonight’s game.  That has now been pushed back to Game 2 because, according to Major League Baseball, “Staging for the performance could adversely impact the field if it is wet, creating damaged and unsafe playing conditions.” Best to move it to the certain-to-be dry Game 2.

Except there’s another, more compelling reason for Jay-Z to cancel: he’s supposed to be in my hometown of Columbus, Ohio tonight:

Rapper Jay-Z is scheduled to perform with Alicia Keys before Game 1 of the World Series in New York on Wednesday night but is also scheduled to perform at the same time at the Schottenstein Center in Columbus.

Late Tuesday afternoon, Jay-Z’s web site said that he will perform, as scheduled, at the World Series.  The first pitch between the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies is scheduled for 7:57 p.m. According to the staff at the Schottenstein Center, Jay-Z is going to perform in Columbus and is skipping the World Series.

My guess:  someone here in Columbus told Jay-Z’s people that they’d sue him for breach of contract if he didn’t show up for tonight’s show and he begged Major League Baseball to let him move his Alicia Keys thing to Game 2.  Whether it was Jay-Z or baseball who, in the first instance, thought that the good people of Columbus would stand idly by while he dissed us for New York is unclear, but as always, the wholesome Midwest triumphs over the forces of east coast decadance and evil.

OK, to make up for that decidedly non-baseball story, I’ll give you my World Series prediction.  Matt has a full writeup here, so I’ll make mine short: Yankees in six. The Phillies are heavily lefty. The Yankees can throw lefties in five of seven games, and they have a bullpen that is particularly tough on lefties as well.  Cliff Lee will be Cliff Lee, but the Phillies rotation will otherwise be no match for the Yankees bats. In fact, if it weren’t for Joe Girardi I’d say it would be the Yankees in five, but I figure old number 27 will over-manage a game away.

Of course, if you’ve been paying attention to my predictions so far this postseason, you’ll realize that this pick all but guarantees a Phillies victory.  But maybe I know that you know that, and I’m changing things up to mess with you?  Ever thought of that?

No, seriously, the Phillies don’t stand a chance.

Video: Minor leaguer dives over the wall to rob a home run

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Meanwhile, in Tulsa, Zach Welz of the visiting Arkansas Travelers made a spectacular catch. It was the catch Torii Hunter tried to make on that famous David Ortiz homer in the playoffs a few years back except Welz made it.

Watch as he topples over the wall to come up with the would-be dinger off the bat of Tulsa Drillers first baseman Cody Bellinger:

MLB, MLBPA move to help baseball in Puerto Rico. After hurting baseball in Puerto Rico.

SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO - JUNE 30:  A Puerto Rican flag flies from a building a day after the speech Puerto Rican Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla gave regarding the government's $72 billion debt on June 30, 2015 in San Juan, Puerto Rico.  The Governor said in his speech that the people will have to sacrifice and share in the responsibilities for pulling the island out of debt.  (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
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Yesterday Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Union announced that they will play games in Puerto Rico as part of a plan to develop and support baseball on the island. They likewise pledged $5 million for the creation of development programs in Puerto Rico and plan to stage special events there.

The press release about this made mention of Puerto Rico’s undeniably outstanding baseball tradition. What it did not mention is that, in the view of many, Major League Baseball itself harmed that tradition significantly when it decided to subject Puerto Rican players to the draft in 1990. A move that the MLBPA signed off on too, of course. Indeed, there’s a pretty strong argument that, if it were not for MLB and the MLBPA’s own acts, there would be no need to “develop and support” baseball in Puerto Rico like this at all.

An exploration of this can be read in this 2012 article from The New York Times. The article (and many, many others like it which have been written over the years) notes the sharp decline of Puerto Rico’s professional and amateur baseball leagues and observes that the once steady flow of players making their way from the island to the major leagues being reduced to a trickle.* (see update below) Why?

No one here disputes the diminished stature of baseball in Puerto Rico, and most agree on the culprit: Major League Baseball’s decision, in 1990, to include Puerto Rico, a commonwealth of the United States, in its first-year player draft. This means Puerto Rican players must wait until they have completed high school to sign a professional contract, and then they are going up against players from the United States and Canada in the draft.

Perhaps more important, major league teams have less incentive to cultivate talent in Puerto Rico because those players may end up with another team through the draft.

Sandy Alderson is quoted in that article dismissing the notion that the draft was to blame, but even his dodge is couched in basic economic incentives. He claims that, hey, there is stuff that is more financially lucrative for people to do in Puerto Rico than play baseball now. Well, sure. I’d just like him to explain how radically reducing the amount of money a kid can get from playing baseball due to taking away his right to sign with the highest bidder and by utterly killing the incentives for clubs to invest in developing players doesn’t enter into that calculus. Alderson doesn’t explain that one.

No matter what Major League Baseball might say on the record about all of this now, the fact remains that no one spent the past 26 years building academies in Puerto Rico like they have in Venezuela or the Dominican Republic. No one has an incentive to turn a 12-year-old with promise into a 16-year-old prospect like they do in those countries because there is no longer any way for a teenager to sign for life-changing money like they can elsewhere. The draft has saved Major League Baseball hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses to Puerto Rican players over the past 26 years and it has reduced the number of prospects who may push high-salaried MLBPA members out of work, but has done tremendous damage to the baseball tradition to which Major League Baseball and the MLBPA now pay lip service.

I’m glad that MLB and the MLBPA are doing something about baseball in Puerto Rico. But $5 million over the course of four or five years, which is what this plan involves, a couple of games (if they’re even played), doesn’t even represent a fraction of the damage that the league and the union inflicted when they imposed the draft.

UPDATE: A couple of people who know a hell of a lot about this stuff have pushed back against my post on Twitter:

Marcano has written a book about the excesses and abuses involved in the development of baseball talent in Latin America. He is 100% right about this and, to the extent my writing above made it sound like I was endorsing the model in place in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic on its own terms, I want to be clear that I am not. There is a lot of bad stuff that goes on there and for every kids signing a million dollar bonus, there are hundreds who find themselves at a professional dead end or far, far worse.

That said: Major League Baseball has no problem exploiting that system in those countries and its move to impose the draft in Puerto Rico was not born of some principled stand against those excesses. It was to be a foothold for an international draft which is primarily about cost savings. It would be quite possible to have a system in place that both (a) protects kids from abuses; but (b) provides the sorts of financial incentives to make baseball a worthwhile pursuit for those with the talent to play it.

Also:

Cooper, the managing editor of Baseball America, so he knows of what he speaks, notes that from 1987-1990, before the draft was imposed, 19 Puerto Ricans made their Major League debut. From 2000-03, 23 made their debuts. From 2013-16, 22 made their debuts.

That certainly blows my above comment about “reducing the flow of players to the majors to a trickle” out of the water. That said, Major League Baseball’s move yesterday was not just about the pipeline to the majors. It’s about baseball overall in Puerto Rico. Those numbers reflecting that the top eschelon of talent is still making it to the majors are undeniable, but the Times article from 2012 talks about the erosion of amateur leagues, Puerto Rico’s diminished standing in international tournaments and the reduction in size of the Puerto Rican winter league.

So, OK, I’ll walk back my comments about just how much the imposition of the draft in 1990 damaged baseball in Puerto Rico, but I maintain that it’s hard to argue that it did not do some damage.