Flawed Elias Rankings set to play key role this winter

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Every year, the terribly broken Elias Rankings play a much larger role than most realize in which free agents signs where and when. Fungible relievers and part-time infielders can see their options dwindle because they’re foolishly classified as Type A free agents. Meanwhile, starting pitchers in line for $30 million-$40 million contract can come compensation free because the statistics the rankings use so badly fail to measure value.
Now that the long secret rankings have been reverse engineered by Eddie Bajek and the results get updated throughout the year on MLB Trade Rumors, I’m hopeful the league will finally get around to reevaluating them. In the meantime, I have some thoughts on the projected rankings this year.
– First, a quick primer. A team that signs a Type A free agent, has to give up its first pick, unless that pick is in the top 15 in the draft. In that case, the team surrenders a second-round pick. Teams can lose multiple picks. The Yankees lost first-, second- and third-round picks last year for signing Mark Teixieira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Type B free agents require no compensation to sign, but the team that loses them is awarded a newly created pick between the first and second rounds. In both cases, these picks only change hands or are rewarded if the player in question is offered arbitration by his old team.
– The most disturbing rankings this year come in the infield. Orlando Hudson, Miguel Tejada, Marco Scutaro, Placido Polanco and Orlando Cabrera are the Type A free agents. Meanwhile, the infielders likely to get the largest deals — Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre — are Type Bs. That makes them even more attractive than they were already. Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez and Troy Glaus are also relevant Type Bs.
Cabrera would be in line to be ripped off by the rankings system for a second straight year, but as part of his deal with the A’s last year, he and his agent smartly included a clause that prevented his team from offering him arbitration this winter. Since the compensation goes away once a player isn’t offered arbitration, he can be had without sacrificing a draft pick.
– Because the system treats the positions as equals, the second- and third-tier relievers are always the players most ripped off by the rankings. The league’s 20th best reliever isn’t worth anywhere near as much as the 20th best starter, yet both are going to be Type-A free agents, meaning a team would have to give up a pick to sign them.
The Type-A free agent relievers this year are Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, LaTroy Hawkins, Rafael Betancourt, Kevin Gregg, John Grabow and Octavio Dotel.
Several of the pitchers won’t be offered arbitration, taking them off the list of pitchers who would require compensation. But a couple probably will be offered arbitration and have to accept it, since no one is going to want to both pay them and sacrifice a draft pick. That’s what Oliver and the Reds’ David Weathers did last year.
– So, that’s 10 free agent relievers who claimed Type A status. On the other hand, just two starters did: John Lackey and Randy Wolf. Andy Pettitte, Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Vicente Padilla, Joel Pineiro, Braden Looper, Jon Garland, Doug David, Randy Johnson, Jason Marquis, Justin Duchscherer and Carl Pavano are all Type Bs.
Then you have Jarrod Washburn, Tim Hudson and Brett Myers, whose teams won’t even be awarded a supplemental pick if they leave.
Brandon Webb is also set to be a Type B if his option is declined, which is one more great reason for the Diamondbacks to exercise it. The Yankees and Red Sox will definitely be looking at high upside pitchers like Webb, Harden, Bedard, Hudson and Ben Sheets.
– In the first base-outfield sections of the rankings, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez were all clear Type As. Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero and Jermaine Dye were also Type As, but Guerrero and Dye, at least, probably won’t be offered arbitration.

Tim Wallach to interview for the Rockies managerial opening

GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 20:  Bench coach Tim Wallach of the Los Angeles Dodgers poses for a portrait during spring training photo day at Camelback Ranch on February 20, 2014 in Glendale, Arizona.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that the Rockies have been granted permission to interview Marlins bench coach Tim Wallach about their managerial opening.

Wallach was a bench coach for Don Mattingly with both the Dodgers and Marlins. Before that he was a third base coach for L.A. and before that he managed in Triple-A where he was the Pacific Coast League Manager of the Year in 2009 with Albuquerque. He likewise served time as the Dodgers hitting coach. He previously interviewed for managers gigs in Detroit and Seattle but didn’t make the cut.

Walt Weiss was fired as Rockies manager after going 283-265 in four seasons.

Here are the Cubs and Indians World Series Rosters

CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 24:  Mike Napoli #26 of the Cleveland Indians looks on during Media Day workouts for the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on October 24, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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The Cubs and Indians have each released their World Series rosters.

As expected, the Cubs roster includes Kyle Schwarber, whom Joe Maddon said earlier this afternoon will DH tonight. The Indians roster includes Danny Salazar, who has been out since early September.


Carl Edwards Jr.
Kyle Hendricks
Jon Lester
Travis Wood
Mike Montgomery
John Lackey
Pedro Strop
Jake Arrieta
Justin Grimm
Aroldis Chapman
Hector Rondon

David Ross, C
Albert Almora Jr., OF
Chris Coghlan, OF
Javier Baez, INF
Kyle Schwarber, OF/C
Kris Bryant, INF
Ben Zobrist, INF
Jason Heyward, OF
Dexter Fowler, OF
Addison Russell, INF
Willson Contreras, C
Anthony Rizzo, INF
Miguel Montero, C
Jorge Soler, OF


Cody Allen
Trevor Bauer
Mike Clevinger
Corey Kluber
Jeff Manship
Zach McAllister
Ryan Merritt
Andrew Miller
Dan Otero
Danny Salazar
Bryan Shaw
Josh Tomlin

Yan Gomes, C
Roberto Perez, C
Jason Kipnis, INF
Francisco Lindor, INF
Michael Martinez, INF
Mike Napoli, INF/DH
Jose Ramirez, INF
Carlos Santana, INF/DH
Lonnie Chisenhall, OF
Coco Crisp, OF
Rajai Davis, OF
Brandon Guyer, OF
Tyler Naquin, OF