About that Cardinals Dodgers preview . . .

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Absent Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter carrying out a murder-suicide pact before tomorrow’s game, I won’t change my prediction that the Cardinals will beat the Dodgers in four games. I say this for two reasons: (1) my gut just likes St. Louis in this thing; and (2) backtracking on a prediction is weak sauce. If you’re going to predict something stick with it before, during and after, and take the credit and the lumps in equal measure.  It’s only baseball, after all, not medicine. No one is going to sue you if you’re wrong.

All of that said, this bears consideration:

The Cardinals grade out as the worst of the playoff teams with 83 wins against an average schedule.

Cardinals fans will, I’m sure, be up in arms at this characterization. By our measures, the Cardinals pitchers faced the second-easiest set of lineups and the batters faced the easiest set of pitching staffs, meaning they had the easiest schedule by a wide margin. (The Cy Young candidacies for Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are another discussion.) In addition to playing in the N.L. Central where the next best team ranked 18th in the majors, the Cardinals faced the A.L.’s worst division, the Central, in interleague play.

It’s less about what is being said — that the Cardinals, if they had faced at least an average schedule, would have only won 83 games — than who is saying it: Sean Forman. The same Sean Forman who founded and lords over Baseball-Reference.com, which is only the greatest invention since The Gutenberg Press.  I don’t like being on the other side of certified geniuses on most issues, and Forman may very well have a point.

But screw it. I’m still sticking with the Cardinals prediction. If for no other reason than that I don’t want to fall in with any analysis that may cause baseball to go the way of football where almost every single playoff conversation is about the schedule. It’s a tired, tired exercise that is more about whining than it is about analysis.  And like the man said: there’s no crying in baseball.

  

Kris Bryant exits game with sprained right ankle

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The Cubs had a scare on Wednesday night when third baseman Kris Bryant left with an apparent ankle injury. In the bottom of the fifth inning, Nationals catcher Matt Wieters hit a pop up that veered just into foul territory near the third base bag. Bryant caught it but his momentum took him back into fair territory. In doing so, he stepped awkwardly on the third base bag and appeared to twist his ankle. Bryant needed the assistance of manager Joe Maddon and the team trainer to get off the field.

Bryant was diagnosed with a mild ankle sprain, CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney reports.

Bryant was 2-for-3 on the night before departing and being replaced by Jeimer Candelario. He’s now hitting .264/.395/.520 with 16 home runs and 32 RBI in 329 plate appearances. Needless to say, the 39-39 Cubs would see their playoff odds hurt immensely if Bryant were to miss a significant amount of time.

Miguel Sano will participate in the 2017 Home Run Derby

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Hector Gomez reports Twins third baseman Miguel Sano will participate in the 2017 Home Run Derby, to be held in two weeks at Marlins Park in Miami. So far, Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is the only other confirmed participant.

Sano, 24, is having an outstanding season, batting .274/.375/.548 with 18 home runs and 53 RBI in 293 plate appearances. According to MLB’s Statcast, only Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (96.7 MPH) has a higher average exit velocity than Sano (96.4 MPH).

Brian Dozier was the last member of the Twins to participate in the Home Run Derby. In 2014 at Target Field, Dozier failed to make it into the second round after hitting only two home runs. Justin Morneau is the only Twin to have ever won the Home Run Derby, as he beat Josh Hamilton 5-3 in the finals of the 2008 Derby at Yankee Stadium — although Hamilton out-homered him in total 35 to 22.